基本原理,概念及评估办法

引言 人们普遍认为,全球气候变暖在北极将进一步放大,由于平流层臭氧修复的可能延误,紫外线B(UV-B)辐射可能继续增加,北极环境及其居民可能特别易受这类环境变化的影响.上述共识促进了对气候变化影响的国际评估工作.北极气候影响评估(ACIA)是一项为时4年的研究,结果出版了一篇重要的科研报告[1]并产生了其他的成果.在本文以及本期Ambio专刊下面的文章中,我们提供了报告中针对北极陆地生态系统(从树线群落交错带到极地荒漠)的部分研究成果.     

瑞典南部一酸性地区和一碱性地区女性头发中微量元素浓度问题

通过对瑞典南部一个酸性环境地区47名女性头发中34种微量元素浓度的测定,将其结果与某碱性环境地区43名女性的结果进行对比.利用感应耦合等离子光学发射光谱和感应耦合等离子质谱分析法测定头发和饮用水中这些元素的浓度.来自酸性地区的头发样本中硼和钡的浓度明显要高些(p＜0.001),而碱性地区头发样本中的钙、锶、钼、铁、硒浓度明显增高(p＜0.001).对有些金属元素,如钙、铅、钼和锶来说,其在头发中和水中的浓度是呈正相关的(r.=0.34～0.57;p≤0.001),显示了摄入水中矿物质的重要性.取自碱性地区头发样本中的硒/汞比率的增加(p＜0.001)说明这些受试者可能对汞的毒性有更好的防护.     

The effects of congestions tax on air quality and health

The “Stockholm Trial” involved a road pricing system to improve the air quality and reduce traffic congestion. The test period of the trial was January 3–July 31, 2006. Vehicles travelling into and out of the charge cordon were charged for every passage during weekdays. The amount due varied during the day and was highest during rush hours (20 SEK = 2.2 EUR, maximum 60 SEK per day). Based on measured and modelled changes in road traffic it was estimated that this system resulted in a 15% reduction in total road use within the charged cordon. Total traffic emissions in this area of NO_x and PM10 fell by 8.5% and 13%, respectively. Air quality dispersion modelling was applied to assess the effect of the emission reductions on ambient concentrations and population exposure. For the situations with and without the trial, meteorological conditions and other emissions than from road traffic were kept the same. The calculations show that, with a permanent congestion tax system like the Stockholm Trial, the annual average NO_x concentrations would be lower by up to 12% along the most densely trafficked streets. PM10 concentrations would be up to 7% lower. The limit values for both PM10 and NO₂ would still be exceeded along the most densely trafficked streets. The total population exposure of NO_x in Greater Stockholm (35 × 35 km with 1.44 million people) is estimated to decrease with a rather modest 0.23 μg m^?3. However, based on a long-term epidemiological study, that found an increased mortality risk of 8% per 10 μg m^?3 NO_x, it is estimated that 27 premature deaths would be avoided every year. According to life-table analysis this would correspond to 206 years of life gained over 10 years per 100 000 people following the trial if the effects on exposures would persist. The effect on mortality is attributed to road traffic emissions (likely vehicle exhaust particles); NO_x is merely regarded as an indicator of traffic exposure. This is only the tip of the ice-berg since reductions are expected in both respiratory and cardiovascular morbidity. This study demonstrates the importance of not only assessing the effects on air quality limit values, but also to make quantitative estimates of health impacts, in order to justify actions to reduce air pollution.     

Effects of zooplankton diel vertical migration on a phytoplankton community: A scenario analysis of the underlying mechanisms

A mechanistic model was applied to study the influence of diurnal vertical migration (DVM) of planktonic crustaceans on the succession and composition of the phytoplankton community. While zooplankton was restricted to only one functional group, the phytoplankton community was divided into two functional groups which are distinguished by their maximum growth rates and vulnerability to zooplankton grazing. DVM causes a pulsed grazing regime and may also entail a corresponding reduction of the cumulative daily rates of ingestion and losses of zooplankton. To study the relative importance of these two mechanisms of DVM to phytoplankton we performed a scenario analysis consisting of 5 different scenarios. The results show that DVM has a strong influence on the phytoplankton community. Well edible algae benefit during the first 3–4 weeks of summer stratification by reduced daily grazing. The typical shift from small, well edible algae to larger, poorly or non-edible phytoplankton is distinctly delayed. Under the assumption of unchanged daily grazing, however, a pulsed grazing regime has nearly no influence on the resulting phytoplankton composition. As similar effects are also found for completely non-edible phytoplankton, indirect effects via phosphorus availability must be assumed. Thus, the scenario analysis reveals that the observed effects of DVM on phytoplankton can be explained by a combination of two mechanisms: (1) reduction of the daily zooplankton grazing, and (2) changed assimilation and remineralisation of phosphorus. Surprisingly and in contradiction to earlier reports there is almost no DVM effect on phytoplankton due to the sole action of a pulsed grazing regime.     

Modelling Dissolved Organic Carbon Turnover in Humic Lake Örträsket, Sweden

The organic carbon balance of a lake with high input of allochthonous organic carbon is modelled integrating physical, chemical and biological processes. The physical model captures the behaviour of real thermal stratification in the lake for different flow situations during the period 1993–1997. The dissolved organic carbon model is based on simulated trajectories of water parcels. By tracking parcels, account is kept of environmental factors such as temperature and radiation as well as DOC quality for each parcel. The DOC concentration shows seasonal variations primarily dependent on inflow. The organic matter degradation (bacterial- and photodegradation) in the lake amounts to 1.5–2.5 mg C l^–1 yr^–1, where photooxidation is responsible for approximately 10%. The estimated DIC production in the lake is large compared to sediment mineralisation and primary production. The main conclusion is that the model with the selected parameterisations of the degradation processes reasonably well describes the DOC dynamics in a forest lake.