Value chain for next-generation biofuels: resilience and sustainability of the product life cycle

Multiple factors including climate change, price uncertainties, and geopolitical instability have prompted many industries to investigate the feasibility of replacing traditional petroleum-based fuels with biofuel alternatives. However, to make this transition successful, these new biofuels must be environmentally sustainable and the necessary support infrastructure must be in place to make the production, distribution, and storage of these biofuels technologically feasible and cost effective. Developing a value chain, spanning from feedstock production to distribution to end users, requires garnering buy-in from multiple stakeholders by demonstrating environmental, economic, and social benefits and incentives. Two critical factors are the environmental benefits achieved from the use of the biofuel technology and the degree of resilience of the value chain to emergent conditions to ensure steady supply to consumers. Moreover, different biofuel pathways have different costs, benefits, and risks which must be compared. In this paper, we describe how environmental sustainability can be modeled using life cycle assessment (LCA) and how the resilience of value chain initiatives can be modeled using a scenario-based decision model. We then describe how sustainability and resilience assessments can be integrated in an iterative, anticipatory LCA framework. These assessments can be used as the basis for a business case for various investments, as well as a means for promoting responsible innovations, with the aviation industry used as a case study.     

Technology and science: innovation at the International Symposium on Sustainable Systems and Technology

While science advances technology, it is also true that technology advances science. Thus, the two bodies of knowledge are increasingly recognized as interdependent. Nonetheless, recent advances in information communication technology (ICT), in particular, may have profound implications for the norms by which science is conducted. For example, treatment of data will increasingly be in terms of probability distributions, rather than as point estimates, because the cost of computation is now so low that more robust approaches to treatment of uncertainty are within the grasp of normal science. Perhaps more importantly, the techniques by which scientists collaborate, communicate, and curate science are undergoing a rare period of rapid change. The papers in this special section exemplify the evolution of the relationship between technology and science in these two important ways: (1) treatment of data uncertainties and (2) participation in novel methods of publication and review. The latter was fostered by the 2016 meeting of the International Symposium on Sustainable Systems and Technologies (ISSST), at which all of the papers in this special section were presented. This editorial summarizes some of the trends in ICT that are the subject of experimentation in ISSST and introduces the idea that scientific societies in the information age are more likely to take the form of a network than they are likely to look like the societies of the last several centuries.     

Simulated climate adaptation in stormwater systems: evaluating the efficiency of adaptation strategies

Adaptations in infrastructure may be necessitated by changes in temperature and precipitation patterns to avoid losses and maintain expected levels of service. A roster of adaptation strategies has emerged in the climate change literature, especially with regard to timing: anticipatory, concurrent, or reactive. Significant progress has been made in studying climate change adaptation decision making that incorporates uncertainty, but less work has examined how strategies interact with existing infrastructure characteristics to influence adaptability. We use a virtual testbed of highway drainage crossings configured with a selection of actual culvert emplacements in Colorado, USA, to examine the effect of adaptation strategy and culvert characteristics on cost efficiency and service level under varying rates of climate change. A meta-model approach with multinomial regression is used to compare the value of better climate change predictions with better knowledge of existing crossing characteristics. We find that, for a distributed system of infrastructural units like culverts, knowing more about existing characteristics can improve the efficacy of adaptation strategies more than better projections of climate change. Transportation departments choosing climate adaptation strategies often lack detailed data on culverts, and gathering that data could improve the efficiency of adaptation despite climate uncertainty.     

The development of a method to determine the burden of climate change on different health outcomes at a local scale: a case study in Osaka Prefecture,Japan

Climate change impacts human health in a variety of ways. Variables including the climate-related risk factor, the health outcome and location all determine the nature and extent of the impact. The existence of different pathways and endpoints presents a problem for quantifying and comparing impacts. Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) provides a common scale, whereby the impact of climate change on both acute and chronic health outcomes can be compared. This study presents a methodology to calculate the impact of climate change on human health at a local scale, using cardiovascular disease (CVD) and meteorological disaster-related injuries (DRIs) in Osaka Prefecture, Japan, as applied case studies. An additional very fine scale assessment of CVD conducted at the neighbourhood level to demonstrate the importance of conducting risk assessments at a local level. The comparative results calculated the impact of climate change in 2050 to be 16.866 DALY/100,000 population for CVD and 0.645 DALY/100,000 for meteorological DRIs. The actual impact of climate change by 2050 on CVD is judged to be higher, although the relative risk was projected to be lower (1.006, compared to 1.263 for meteorological DRIs). The fine scale assessment revealed the variations in the projected impact of climate change on CVD for all administrative zones in Osaka Prefecture. The range of impacts varied from 0 to 114.29 DALY/100,000. The results demonstrate the applicability of using DALY to quantify the impact of climate change on different health outcomes, using a transferable methodology, and provide information that enables evidence-based prioritisation of climate change adaptation strategies at a local scale.     

Optimizing angles of rooftop photovoltaics,ratios of solar to vegetated roof systems,and economic benefits,in Portland,Oregon, USA

This study analyzed insolation data to account for multiple scattering in calculating optimal tilt angles for stationary and seasonally moving photovoltaics on three different roof types in the US Pacific Northwest: vegetated roofs, white roofs, and dark roofs. Using these results, we modeled the energy savings for vegetated roofs and roofs covered in varying numbers of photovoltaic panels. We then calculated the net present value, internal rate of return, and other economic measures for all possible combinations of covering rooftops in mixes of photovoltaic arrays and vegetation, accounting for installation costs, proposed carbon taxes, stormwater management discounts, and other relevant factors. Our results quantify how, in the US Pacific Northwest and similar locations, photovoltaics produce higher returns on investment than do vegetated roofs for new buildings, while vegetated roofs produce better returns on investment than do photovoltaics for older buildings. This is important because in many areas, some buildings have photovoltaics when a vegetated roof would have been more cost and energy efficient, while other buildings have vegetated roofs when photovoltaics would have been more cost and energy efficient. Potential applications include modifying incentive programs and other policies to account properly for building age, use, and other relevant factors to ensure building owners make the most energy-efficient decisions between photovoltaic versus vegetated roof installation. Our research also demonstrates how positive returns on investment can be realized in the US Pacific Northwest and similar regions through vegetated roofs and photovoltaics provided they are each installed optimally.     

Trends and applications of multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences: literature review

Approximately 3000 papers concerning multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) in the environmental field were identified through a series of queries in the Web of Science database and classified by MCDA method and environmental application using text mining in R. Stemming and stop word removal techniques were used to remove irrelevant text from the literature. Trends in MCDA methods (AHP/ANP, TOPSIS, outranking, MAUT/MAVT) associated with specific environmental applications (water, air, energy, natural resources, and waste management) or interventions/tools applications (stakeholders, strategies, sustainability, and GIS) were identified. The results show a linear growth in the share of MCDA papers in environmental science across all application areas. Furthermore, the results show that AHP/ANP and MAUT/MAVT are the most frequently mentioned MCDA methods in the literature. For environmental applications, the results showed that natural resource and waste management keywords were, respectively, the most and least commonly discussed applications within the MCDA papers. For intervention/tool applications, we found that keywords associated with ‘strategy’ and ‘GIS’ applications are, respectively, the most and least commonly discussed keywords within the MCDA papers. The authors found that MCDA method keywords were evenly distributed across the environmental and intervention/tool applications, indicating a lack of preference in the environmental field for use of specific MCDA methods. This paper demonstrates that text mining is an applicable tool to assess specific textual trends and patterns when analyzing larger bodies of MCDA literature.     

Ambient air pollution and term birth weight in Texas from 1998 to 2004

Previous studies have explored the association between air pollution levels and adverse birth outcomes such as lower birth weight. Existing literature suggests an association, although results across studies are not consistent. Additional research is needed to confirm the effect, investigate the exposure window of importance, and distinguish which pollutants cause harm.

We assessed the association between ambient pollutant concentrations and term birth weight for 1,548,904 births in TX from 1998 to 2004. Assignment of prenatal exposure to air pollutants was based on maternal county of residence at the time of delivery. Pollutants examined included particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 and ≤2.5 µm (PM₁₀ and PM_2.5), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone (O₃). We applied a linear model with birth weight as a continuous variable. The model was adjusted for known risk factors and region. We assessed pollutant effects by trimester to identify biological exposure window of concern, and explored interaction due to race/ethnicity.

An interquartile increase in ambient pollutant concentrations of SO₂ and O₃ was associated with a 4.99-g (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.87–8.11) and 2.72-g (95% CI, 1.11–4.33) decrease in birth weight, respectively. Lower birth weight was associated with exposure to O₃ in the first and second trimester, whereas results were not significant for other pollutants by trimester. A positive association was exhibited for PM_2.5 in the first trimester. Effects estimates for PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 were inconsistent across race/ethnic groups.

Current ambient air pollution levels may be increasing the risk of lower birth weight for some pollutants. These risks may be increased for certain racial/ethnic groups. Additional research including consideration of improved methodology is needed to investigate these findings. Future studies should examine the influence of residual confounding.

Implications: This is one of the most comprehensive studies examining criteria air pollutants and lower birth weight in Texas. Our findings confirm results found previously for adverse effects of the air pollutant SO₂ on lower birth weight. Results from our study suggest that adverse pregnancy outcomes such as lower birth weight can occur even while maintaining air pollution levels below regulatory standards. Future studies should incorporate the assessment of differential pollutant exposure as well as effect estimates by race/ethnicity with individual and community-level social factors in order to enhance our understanding of how physical, social, and host factors influence birth outcomes.

Supplemental Materials: Supplementary information relating to characteristics of excluded births, distribution of air pollutant monitors by pollutant, and correlation coefficients of the air pollutants is available in the publisher's online edition of the Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association.     

The Effects of Hypoxia on Sediment Nitrogen Cycling in the Baltic Sea

Primary production in the eutrophic Baltic Sea is limited by nitrogen availability; hence denitrification (natural transformation of nitrate to gaseous N₂) in the sediments is crucial in mitigating the effects of eutrophication. This study shows that dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA) process, where nitrogen is not removed but instead recycled in the system, dominates nitrate reduction in low oxygen conditions (O₂ <110 μM), which have been persistent in the central Gulf of Finland during the past decade. The nitrogen removal rates measured in this study show that nitrogen removal has decreased in the Gulf of Finland compared to rates measured in mid-1990s and the decrease is most likely caused by the increased bottom water hypoxia.     

Arctic Tipping Points: Governance in Turbulent Times

Interacting forces of climate change and globalization are transforming the Arctic. Triggered by a non-linear shift in sea ice, this transformation has unleashed mounting interest in opportunities to exploit the region’s natural resources as well as growing concern about environmental, economic, and political issues associated with such efforts. This article addresses the implications of this transformation for governance, identifies limitations of existing arrangements, and explores changes needed to meet new demands. It advocates the development of an Arctic regime complex featuring flexibility across issues and adaptability over time along with an enhanced role for the Arctic Council both in conducting policy-relevant assessments and in promoting synergy in interactions among the elements of the emerging Arctic regime complex. The emphasis throughout is on maximizing the fit between the socioecological features of the Arctic and the character of the governance arrangements needed to steer the Arctic toward a sustainable future.