Minimum viable metapopulation size, extinction debt, and the conservation of a declining species.

A key question facing conservation biologists is whether declines in species' distributions are keeping pace with landscape change, or whether current distributions overestimate probabilities of future persistence. We use metapopulations of the marsh fritillary butterfly Euphydryas aurinia in the United Kingdom as a model system to test for extinction debt in a declining species. We derive parameters for a metapopulation model (incidence function model, IFM) using information from a 625-km2 landscape where habitat patch occupancy, colonization, and extinction rates for E. aurinia depend on patch connectivity, area, and quality. We then show that habitat networks in six extant metapopulations in 16-km2 squares were larger, had longer modeled persistence times (using IFM), and higher metapopulation capacity (lambdaM) than six extinct metapopulations. However, there was a > 99% chance that one or more of the six extant metapopulations would go extinct in 100 years in the absence of further habitat loss. For 11 out of 12 networks, minimum areas of habitat needed for 95% persistence of metapopulation simulations after 100 years ranged from 80 to 142 ha (approximately 5-9% of land area), depending on the spatial location of habitat. The area of habitat exceeded the estimated minimum viable metapopulation size (MVM) in only two of the six extant metapopulations, and even then by only 20%. The remaining four extant networks were expected to suffer extinction in 15-126 years. MVM was consistently estimated as approximately 5% of land area based on a sensitivity analysis of IFM parameters and was reduced only marginally (to approximately 4%) by modeling the potential impact of long-distance colonization over wider landscapes. The results suggest a widespread extinction debt among extant metapopulations of a declining species, necessitating conservation management or reserve designation even in apparent strongholds. For threatened species, metapopulation modeling is a potential means to identify landscapes near to extinction thresholds, to which conservation measures can be targeted for the best chance of success.     

Ecotoxicity in Aliivibrio fischeri of Ibuprofen,Omeprazole and their Mixtures

The acute ecotoxic effects of ibuprofen and omeprazole and their mixture have been measured using Aliivibrio fischeri as a biomodel. The toxic effects were also tested after 5 days, and an effect-driven approach was used to analyse the results. The toxic effects of the mixtures were compared with the predictions obtained using concentration addition and independent action mathematical methods.

According to the Passino and Smith classification, the results indicate that ibuprofen can be considered slightly toxic (10<EC₅₀ <100?mg?L^-1), while omeprazole can be denoted as moderately toxic (1<EC₅₀ <10?mg?L^-1) to Aliivibrio fischeri. An overestimation of the actual ecotoxic effect of the mixture was found when the concentration addition and independent action methods were applied. Finally, the effect-driven approach indicated that the transformation products of the studied drugs should be prioritized for risk assessment purposes.     

Monitoring trace metals in urban aerosols from Buenos Aires city. Determination by plasma-based techniques

A study was undertaken, within the framework of a 3 years national project, to assess the content of 13 elements in airborne particulate matter collected in representative zones of the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires. The sampling strategy followed consisted in collecting simultaneously 67 samples of PM10 particulate matter in 9 sampling sites covering an area of about 30 km2 during one week. The collection was performed on ash-free fibre-glass filters using high volume samplers. A combination of aqua regia and perchloric acid was used for leaching metals from filters. Key elements, namely Al, Ca, Cu, Fe, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb, S, Sb, Sn, Zn and Zr, were determined by inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES) and inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) at micro g g(-1) and ng g(-1) levels. Analyte concentration varied from 130 ng g(-1)(Mo) to over 30%(Ca). Multivariate statistical analysis was performed on the data set including the measured elemental compositions for the monitored period. The atmospheric concentration found for Pb confirms the decreasing levels of this element since the introduction of unleaded gasoline in 1995: 88 ng m(-3)(2001) < 220 ng m(-3)(1997) < 3900 ng m(-3)(1994). The average S concentration above 3 microg m(-3) is somehow unexpectedly high for Buenos Aires since the relatively low S content of liquid fuels and the massive usage of natural gas imply low emissions of this element from combustion activities. To the best of our knowledge, S concentrations are reported for the first time for this city.     

Arsenic biomonitoring using a hyperaccumulator fern (Pteris vittata)

Samples of Pteris vittata L. (brake fern or ladder brake) collected in Genova and in areas outside urban centres, have been analysed for arsenic content in order to assess if hyper accumulating plants are suitable for monitoring purposes. Hyper accumulation ability of the Ligurian fern populations was evaluated by analysing specimens grown with hydroponic media added with As(v). Arsenic concentrations in the range 2-310 microg g(-1) dry weight have been measured in samples collected in different sites along the Ligurian coast. Arsenic concentrations in fern fronds correlate with the estimated arsenic emission in the area, verifying the applicability of P. vittata as an arsenic biomonitor.     

Analytical characterization of movements of the spinal column and risk assessment due to repeated movements of the upper limbs of building painters

Manual activities of construction workers may induce musculoskeletal disorders. This study on a group of painters aimed to analytically characterize movements of the spinal column by both lumbar motion monitor and television cameras and to determine, using the Occupational Repetitive Actions (OCRA) Index method, the risk exerted by repeated movements of the upper limbs. The main results are: painting with a roller generally exposes workers to a lesser risk for upper limbs than painting with a brush; a roller-stick fixed at the wrong length can lead to stretching of the back at lumbar and cervical levels; to remain within the range of ‘acceptable risk’ (OCRA Index evaluation), a worker should not paint a vertical wall for over 3 h if using a roller and 2.5 h if painting with a brush; and, on average, a painter who paints for 5 h in a day lifts the bucket about 120,140 times.     

When “It depends” amounts to more than simple contingent relationships: Three canonical forms of inversions

Organizational behavior theories can be subject to potential inversions in the nature of the effects expected or described (i.e. an effect inverts from positive to negative or vice versa). Yet, inversions are rarely considered or assessed. We explore three possible canonical inversions: the maximum or minimum point in a quadratic regression model, the point of intersection in disordinal interactions, and the change of slope in a moderated regression model. We describe both the motivation for, and the theoretical and empirical importance of, considering such inversions in theory‐building and testing. We consider common situations in which inversions are misinterpreted empirically and present methods to conduct explorations for potential inversions. Two different cases of errors concerning inversions can occur. In the first case entailing omission, an inversion is occurring but is not observed in the sample. In the second case, researchers wrongly assume an inversion is occurring in their model, yet the prospective inversion would actually occur out of the range of possible values on the focal variable(s), and is thus not significant. We illustrate different types of inversions using simulated examples. Ultimately, we seek to encourage and equip management researchers to identify important theoretical boundary conditions imposed by inversions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantitative tools for implementing the new definition of significant portion of the range in the U.S. Endangered Species Act

In 2014, the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and National Marine Fisheries Service announced a new policy interpretation for the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). According to the act, a species must be listed as threatened or endangered if it is determined to be threatened or endangered in a significant portion of its range (SPR). The 2014 policy seeks to provide consistency by establishing that a portion of the range should be considered significant if the associated individuals’ “removal would cause the entire species to become endangered or threatened.” We reviewed 20 quantitative techniques used to assess whether a portion of a species’ range is significant according to the new guidance. Our assessments are based on the 3R criteria—redundancy (i.e., buffering from catastrophe), resiliency (i.e., ability to withstand stochasticity), and representation (i.e., ability to evolve)—that the FWS uses to determine if a species merits listing. We identified data needs for each quantitative technique and considered which methods could be implemented given the data limitations typical of rare species. We also identified proxies for the 3Rs that may be used with limited data. To assess potential data availability, we evaluated 7 example species by accessing data in their species status assessments, which document all the information used during a listing decision. In all species, an SPR could be evaluated with at least one metric for each of the 3Rs robustly or with substantial assumptions. Resiliency assessments appeared most constrained by limited data, and many species lacked information on connectivity between subpopulations, genetic variation, and spatial variability in vital rates. These data gaps will likely make SPR assessments for species with complex life histories or that cross national boundaries difficult. Although we reviewed techniques for the ESA, other countries require identification of significant areas and could benefit from this research.