Application of fuzzy sets and cognitive maps to incorporate social science scenarios in integrated assessment modelsA case study of urbanization in Ujung Pandang, Indonesia

Decision–support systems in the field of integrated water management could benefit considerably from social science knowledge, as many environmental changes are human-induced. Unfortunately the adequate incorporation of qualitative social science concepts in a quantitative modeling framework is not straightforward. The applicability of fuzzy set theory and fuzzy cognitive maps for the integration of qualitative scenarios in a decision–support system was examined for the urbanization of the coastal city of Ujung Pandang, Indonesia. The results indicate that both techniques are useful tools for the design of integrated models based on a combination of concepts from the natural and social sciences. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

星形大分子液晶在气相色谱分析中的应用研究

将首次合成的偶氮苯硅氧烷类星形液晶大分子化合物用于毛细管柱气相色谱固定液 ,在其相转变温度附近具有良好的选择性 ,成功地分离了二甲酚异构体。     

The Need for Scale Sensitive Approaches in Spatially Explicit Land Use Change Modeling

This paper introduces some of the issues that are relevant to the spatially explicit modeling of land use systems. A short overview is given of the ways and means in which a number of different land use change models describe the land use system. Specific attention is given to the empirical modeling approach used in the CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) modeling framework. This approach is demonstrated for three case studies in China, Ecuador and the Atlantic Zone of Costa Rica. These case-studies illustrate the methodology for multi-scale analysis of land use driving factors and their application in spatially explicit modeling exercises. Model functioning, performance and limitations are discussed. The presented case-studies indicate that empirical modeling results can contribute to a better theoretic imbedding of land use change research in scale sensitive and integrated theories.     

Soil and vegetation carbon stocks in Brazilian Western Amazonia: relationships and ecological implications for natural landscapes

The relationships between soils attributes, soil carbon stocks and vegetation carbon stocks are poorly know in Amazonia, even at regional scale. In this paper, we used the large and reliable soil database from Western Amazonia obtained from the RADAMBRASIL project and recent estimates of vegetation biomass to investigate some environmental relationships, quantifying C stocks of intact ecosystem in Western Amazonia. The results allowed separating the western Amazonia into 6 sectors, called pedo-zones: Roraima, Rio Negro Basin, Tertiary Plateaux of the Amazon, Javari-Juruá-Purus lowland, Acre Basin and Rondonia uplands. The highest C stock for the whole soil is observed in the Acre and in the Rio Negro sectors. In the former, this is due to the high nutrient status and high clay activity, whereas in the latter, it is attributed to a downward carbon movement attributed to widespread podzolization and arenization, forming spodic horizons. The youthful nature of shallow soils of the Javari-Juruá-Purus lowlands, associated with high Al, results in a high phytomass C/soil C ratio. A similar trend was observed for the shallow soils from the Roraima and Rondonia highlands. A consistent east–west decline in biomass carbon in the Rio Negro Basin sector is associated with increasing rainfall and higher sand amounts. It is related to lesser C protection and greater C loss of sandy soils, subjected to active chemical leaching and widespread podzolization. Also, these soils possess lower cation exchangeable capacity and lower water retention capacity. Zones where deeply weathered Latosols dominate have a overall pattern of high C sequestration, and greater than the shallower soils from the upper Amazon, west of Madeira and Negro rivers. This was attributed to deeper incorporation of carbon in these clayey and highly pedo-bioturbated soils. The results highlight the urgent need for refining soil data at an appropriate scale for C stocks calculations purposes in Amazonia. There is a risk of misinterpreting C stocks in Amazonia when such great pedological variability is not taken into account.     

Impact of water quality on bacterioplankton assemblage along Cértima River Basin (central western Portugal) assessed by PCR–DGGE and multivariate analysis

The information on bacterial community composition (BCC) in Portuguese water bodies is very scarce. Cértima River (central western Portugal) is known to have high levels of pollution, namely organic. In the present work, the BCC from a set of 16 water samples collected from Cértima River Basin and its main tributaries was characterized using 16S rDNA–denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis, a culture-independent molecular approach. Molecular data were related to environmental parameters through multivariate analysis to investigate potential impact of water pollution along the river. Principal component analysis using environmental data showed a water quality gradient from more pristine waters (at the mountain tributaries) to waters with increasingly eutrophic potential (such as Fermentelos Lake). This gradient was mainly defined by factors such as organic and inorganic nutrient sources, electrical conductivity, hydrogen carbonate concentration, and pH. Molecular results showed variations in BCC along Cértima River Basin but in the main river section, a Bacteroidetes phylotype (Flavobacterium sp.) proved to be dominant throughout the river course. Multivariate analysis suggests that spatial variation of BCC along the Cértima River Basin depended mainly on parameters such as Chl a, total suspended solid (TSS), total organic carbon, electrical conductivity, and HCO _boxclose^-_{3}^{-} levels. Bacteroidetes phylotypes were all related to higher electrical conductivity and HCO₃^-_{3}^{-} levels although some of these were also correlated with high SO₄^2-_{4}^{2-} and others with high soluble reactive phosphorus, nitrate, TN, and Kjeld-N levels. The Gammaproteobacteria occurrence was correlated with high SO₄^2-_{4}^{2-} levels. One of the Betaproteobacteria phylotypes showed to correlate with low redox potential (E_h) and high temperature, pH, TSS, and Chl a levels while another one showed a negative correlation with Chl a values.     

Large and mesoscale meteo-oceanographic patterns in local responses of biogeochemical concentrations

Investigations surrounding the variability of productivity in upwelling regions are necessary for a better understanding the physical-biological coupling in these regions by monitoring systems of environmental impacts according to the needs of the regional coastal management. Using a spatial and temporal database from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric (NCAR) Research reanalysis, Quick Scatterometer vector wind, and surface stations from the Southeast coast of Brazil, we investigate the meteorological influences due to the large-scale systems in the variability of the nutrient and larvae concentration, and chlorophyll a, describing statistically relationships between them in upwelling regions. In addition, we used multivariate analysis, such as PCA and clustering to verify spatial and temporal variances and describe more clear the structure and composition of the ecosystem. Correlation matrix analyses were applied for different water masses present in the study area to identify the relations between physical and biogeochemical parameters in a region, where frequently upwelling occur. Statistical approaches and seasonal variability show that the period of November to March is more sensitive to nutrients (1.20?mg/m(3) for chlorophyll a, 2.20?μmol/l for total nitrogen and 5.5?ml/l for DO) and larvae concentrations (120 org/m(3) for most of the larvae, except for cirripedia that presented values around 370 org/m(3)) relating to the influence of large and mesoescale meteorological patterns. The spatial and temporal variables analyzed with multivariate approach show meaningful seasonality variance of the physical and biological samples, characterizing the principal components responsible for this variance in spring and summer (upwelling period), emphasizing the monitoring of species as crustaceans and mussels that are present in the local economy. Then, the spring and summer season are characterized by high productivity due to the occurrence of upwelling in this period.     

Rate of occurrence of failures based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson process: an ozone analyzer case study

Atmospheric pollutant monitoring constitutes a primordial activity in public policies concerning air quality. In São Paulo State, Brazil, the São Paulo State Environment Company (CETESB) maintains an automatic network which continuously monitors CO, SO₂, NO _x , O₃, and particulate matter concentrations in the air. The monitoring process accuracy is a fundamental condition for the actions to be taken by CETESB. As one of the support systems, a preventive maintenance program for the different analyzers used is part of the data quality strategy. Knowledge of the behavior of analyzer failure times could help optimize the program. To achieve this goal, the failure times of an ozone analyzer—considered a repairable system—were modeled by means of the nonhomogeneous Poisson process. The rate of occurrence of failures (ROCOF) was estimated for the intervals 0–70,800 h and 0–88,320 h, in which six and seven failures were observed, respectively. The results showed that the ROCOF estimate is influenced by the choice of the observation period, t ₀?=?70,800 h and t ₇?=?88,320 h in the cases analyzed. Identification of preventive maintenance actions, mainly when parts replacement occurs in the last interval of observation, is highlighted, justifying the alteration in the behavior of the inter-arrival times. The performance of a follow-up on each analyzer is recommended in order to record the impact of the performed preventive maintenance program on the enhancement of its useful life.     

Genotoxic effects of the herbicide Roundup® in the fish Corydoras paleatus (Jenyns 1842) after short-term, environmentally low concentration exposure

The glyphosate-based herbicide, Roundup^®, is one of the most used pesticides worldwide. In concert with the advent of transgenic crops resistant to glyphosate, the use of this pesticide has led to an increase in agricultural yields. The objective of this study was to evaluate the genotoxic effect that the herbicide Roundup^® (at a concentration of 6.67 μg/L, corresponding to 3.20 μg/L glyphosate) can have on the fish Corydoras paleatus. Treatment groups were exposed for 3, 6, and 9 days, and effects were analyzed using the piscine micronucleus test (PMT) and comet assay. A group subjected to filtered water only was used as a negative control. The PMT did not show differences between the control and exposed groups for any of the treatment times. In contrast, the comet assay showed a high rate of DNA damage in group exposed to Roundup^® for all treatment times, both for blood and hepatic cells. We conclude that for the low concentration used in this research, the herbicide shows potential genotoxic effects. Future research will be important in evaluating the effects of this substance, whose presence in the environment is ever-increasing.     

The use of sensory perception indicators for improving the characterization and modelling of total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) grade in soils

This paper proposes a multistep approach for creating a 3D stochastic model of total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) grade in potentially polluted soils of a deactivated oil storage site by using chemical analysis results as primary or hard data and classes of sensory perception variables as secondary or soft data. First, the statistical relationship between the sensory perception variables (e.g. colour, odour and oil–water reaction) and TPH grade is analysed, after which the sensory perception variable exhibiting the highest correlation is selected (oil–water reaction in this case study). The probabilities of cells belonging to classes of oil–water reaction are then estimated for the entire soil volume using indicator kriging. Next, local histograms of TPH grade for each grid cell are computed, combining the probabilities of belonging to a specific sensory perception indicator class and conditional to the simulated values of TPH grade. Finally, simulated images of TPH grade are generated by using the P-field simulation algorithm, utilising the local histograms of TPH grade for each grid cell. The set of simulated TPH values allows several calculations to be performed, such as average values, local uncertainties and the probability of the TPH grade of the soil exceeding a specific threshold value.