New estimates of down syndrome risks at chorionic villus sampling,amniocentesis, and livebirth in women of advanced maternal age from a uniquely defined population

Current measures of livebirth prevalence of Down syndrome are derived from data obtained up to 20 years ago, before the introduction of the prenatal diagnostic tests amniocentesis and chorionic villus sampling (CVS). For women aged 36–52 years, but who were not tested prenatally, we proposed to make a direct estimate of current livebirth prevalence of Down syndrome. We could also determine prevalence at the time of CVS and amniocentesis in women of the same age undergoing prenatal testing. Differences in these prevalences allow an estimation of the relative loss of Down syndrome during pregnancy. In Victoria, Australia, we identified 3041 women having CVS, 7504 having amniocentesis, and 13 139 having no test. Smoothed regression estimates of age-specific livebirth prevalence were found to be higher than in the early studies. The estimate of spontaneous loss was 17 per cent between the time of CVS and amniocentesis, and 18 per cent after the time of amniocentesis. The latter figure is lower than previous estimates and may be explained by a greater likelihood of a Down syndrome fetus surviving to be liveborn, given the modern approach to early obstetric intervention. These current risk estimates of livebirth may be useful updates for genetic counselling, but perhaps more importantly, may be used as precise maternal age-related risk figures, necessary in the design and implementation of prenatal screening programmes for Down syndrome.     

Male choice

Summary Male preference for large females as mates was demonstrated in the wood-boring weevil, Brentus anchorago (Coleoptera: Brentidae) by observation and by mate choice experiments in which the complicating factor of male rivalry was eliminated. Adult weight varied at least 23-fold in a large breeding aggregation in Panama. Drilling females guarded by males were larger than unguarded drilling females, and the number of males attending a drilling female increased with length of the female. Thus despite a sex ratio of about 1:1, males were unevenly distributed among the females. A male attending a female had on average about 1 rival male in his vicinity (Lloyd's Index of Mean Crowding). Male preference for large females in the absence of rival males was directly tested in choice arenas on the surface of the host tree. When a large and a small female were simultaneously presented, large and small males alike mated first with the large female. Male choice of large females is probably adaptive in Brentus anchorago because larger females lay larger eggs, which produce larger offspring in a competitive larval environment. Male choice in this species is associated with high male mating investment and time commitment per female, and not with high male parental investment.     

Should heterogeneity be the basis for conservation? Grassland bird response to fire and grazing.

In tallgrass prairie, disturbances such as grazing and fire can generate patchiness across the landscape, contributing to a shifting mosaic that presumably enhances biodiversity. Grassland birds evolved within the context of this shifting mosaic, with some species restricted to one or two patch types created under spatially and temporally distinct disturbance regimes. Thus, management-driven reductions in heterogeneity may be partly responsible for declines in numbers of grassland birds. We experimentally altered spatial heterogeneity of vegetation structure within a tallgrass prairie by varying the spatial and temporal extent of fire and by allowing grazing animals to move freely among burned and unburned patches (patch treatment). We contrasted this disturbance regime with traditional agricultural management of the region that promotes homogeneity (traditional treatment). We monitored grassland bird abundance during the breeding seasons of 2001-2003 to determine the influence of altered spatial heterogeneity on the grassland bird community. Focal disturbances of patch burning and grazing that shifted through the landscape over several years resulted in a more heterogeneous pattern of vegetation than uniform application of fire and grazing. Greater spatial heterogeneity in vegetation provided greater variability in the grassland bird community. Some bird species occurred in greatest abundance within focally disturbed patches, while others occurred in relatively undisturbed patches in our patch treatment. Henslow's Sparrow, a declining species, occurred only within the patch treatment. Upland Sandpiper and some other species were more abundant on recently disturbed patches within the same treatment. The patch burn treatment created the entire gradient of vegetation structure required to maintain a suite of grassland bird species that differ in habitat preferences. Our study demonstrated that increasing spatial and temporal heterogeneity of disturbance in grasslands increases variability in vegetation structure that results in greater variability at higher trophic levels. Thus, management that creates a shifting mosaic using spatially and temporally discrete disturbances in grasslands can be a useful tool in conservation. In the case of North American tallgrass prairie, discrete fires that capitalize on preferential grazing behavior of large ungulates promote a shifting mosaic of habitat types that maintain biodiversity and agricultural productivity.     

Environmental decision making in multi-stakeholder contexts: applicability of life cycle thinking in development planning and implementation

According to the targets set for sustainability, integrating the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programs is one of the main goals for development projects. A major challenge in the development field is cross-sectoral integrated planning and achieving multi-stakeholder consensus for collaborative joint projects, especially when sustainability is a goal. This increases the complexity of the multi-stakeholder interaction in decision making and requires enhanced mechanisms for stakeholder participation, coordination, and commitment beyond narrow self-interest. A critical aspect in the decision making process is to enable stakeholders to not only interpret and make decisions based on expert judgments, but also to appropriately involve the relevant parties in the research and decision making process. Therefore, scientific analyses in multi-stakeholder contexts have to be more transparent, participatory, and stakeholder-based in order to provide useful information to assist responsible decision making.This paper presents an outline of a stakeholder-based life cycle assessment approach that can be used to support sustainable decision making in multi-stakeholder contexts. The framework is discussed and compared to other common methods used to support environmental decision making in development projects. We argue that the fundamental concept of life cycle thinking can be effectively used to incorporate stakeholders in the research and decision making process, which can lead to more comprehensive, yet achievable assessments in collaboration with stakeholders. Life cycle thinking is not just a way to examine environmental impacts of activities, but also a way to comprehend and visualize a broader set of upstream and downstream consequences of decisions in development planning and implementation. A life cycle framework including the mapping of stakeholder involvement at each activity in upstream and downstream stages would give stakeholders a holistic view that they otherwise may not have.     

Environmental policy indicators: A systems model

This article describes and tests a systems theory-based policy indicators model. The framework is used to examine propositions about linkages between states' ecological-spatial characteristics and subsequent selected solid waste management (SWM) -related environmental policies. It was hypothesized that state characteristics of: (1) population density (used as a garbage-per-land area index), (2) population convergence within urban areas, and (3) percent population change in the interval 1980–1985, could jointly explain state variation in both the number and the vigor of SWM policy outputs. Greater levels of spatial pressure were proposed to be related directly to more numerous, more convincing policies. Proposals are grounded in the literature of organizational search theory, crisis stimulation, and technological pressure. Results revealed that the sociospatial model in fact could explain a reasonable proportion of policy variation across states. However, not all hypotheses are supported. Population change shows an indirect, rather than the anticipated direct, relationship with policy output levels. In addition, when used in the model as a pollution intensity index, population density failed to contribute significantly to an explanation of differences in state SWM policy levels. The analysis raises questions about changes occurring over time in the nature and direction of linkages between sociospatial measures and policy responses. This study suggests that strengthening policy indicator models may require questioning key assumptions and theoretical bases, conducting longitudinal studies, and factoring in political, economic, and other policy environment forces.     

The effective source area of 90Sr for a stream near Chernobyl, Ukraine

Remediation of streams impacted by non-point source contaminants requires an understanding of both the areas within a watershed that are contributing contamination to streams and the pathways of contaminant migration to streams. From 1998 to 2002, we studied the migration of 90Sr in the Borschi watershed, a small (8.5 km2) catchment three km south of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, Ukraine. Fuel particles, distributed in a heterogeneous pattern across the watershed, are weathering and releasing 90Sr from the fuel matrix. Depletion of (90)Sr, evaluated in comparison to the immobile fission product europium-154, is occurring in the channel and wetland sediment. Channel sediments are uniformly depleted in 90Sr with depth. In wetland sediments, there is a zone of depletion in the top 10 cm and a zone of accumulation at depths from 10 to 25 cm. Estimates of 90Sr depletion are used to map the effective source area that has contributed (90)Sr loading to the main channel. The effective source area includes channel bottom sediments, a wetland in the central region of the watershed, and periodically flooded soils surrounding the wetland. The total depletion from the effective source area is estimated to be 36 +/- 7 x 10(10) Bq. Based on observations of stream flow rate and water quality in 1999-2001, the annual 90Sr removal rate from the watershed is estimated to be 1.4 +/-0.2 x 10(10) or 1.5% of the inventory per year. When extrapolated over a 15-year period following the Chernobyl accident, the last value is in reasonable agreement with the estimated depletion of the source area based on 90Sr/154Eu ratios. The 90Sr yearly leaching rate considering the whole watershed is 0.2% while the 90Sr leaching rate considering the effective source area is an order of magnitude higher. Most of the 90Sr release in the watershed has originated from an effective source area of 0.62 km2, or 7% of the watershed area.