Responses to projected changes in climate and UV-B at the species level

Environmental manipulation experiments showed that species respond individualistically to each environmental-change variable. The greatest responses of plants were generally to nutrient, particularly nitrogen, addition. Summer warming experiments showed that woody plant responses were dominant and that mosses and lichens became less abundant. Responses to warming were controlled by moisture availability and snow cover. Many invertebrates increased population growth in response to summer warming, as long as desiccation was not induced. CO2 and UV-B enrichment experiments showed that plant and animal responses were small. However, some microorganisms and species of fungi were sensitive to increased UV-B and some intensive mutagenic actions could, perhaps, lead to unexpected epidemic outbreaks. Tundra soil heating, CO2 enrichment and amendment with mineral nutrients generally accelerated microbial activity. Algae are likely to dominate cyanobacteria in milder climates. Expected increases in winter freeze-thaw cycles leading to ice-crust formation are likely to severely reduce winter survival rate and disrupt the population dynamics of many terrestrial animals. A deeper snow cover is likely to restrict access to winter pastures by reindeer/caribou and their ability to flee from predators while any earlier onset of the snow-free period is likely to stimulate increased plant growth. Initial species responses to climate change might occur at the sub-species level: an Arctic plant or animal species with high genetic/racial diversity has proved an ability to adapt to different environmental conditions in the past and is likely to do so also in the future. Indigenous knowledge, air photographs, satellite images and monitoring show that changes in the distributions of some species are already occurring: Arctic vegetation is becoming more shrubby and more productive, there have been recent changes in the ranges of caribou, and "new" species of insects and birds previously associated with areas south of the treeline have been recorded. In contrast, almost all Arctic breeding bird species are declining and models predict further quite dramatic reductions of the populations of tundra birds due to warming. Species-climate response surface models predict potential future ranges of current Arctic species that are often markedly reduced and displaced northwards in response to warming. In contrast, invertebrates and microorganisms are very likely to quickly expand their ranges northwards into the Arctic.     

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in marine fish and blue mussels from southern Greenland

Levels of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) have not previously been reported in Greenland. In this study shorthorn sculpins (Myoxocephalus scorpius) were sampled at three locations in southern Greenland; Usuk (no population), Igaliko (population 40) and Qaqortoq (population 3200). Furthermore uvak (Gadus ogac), spotted wolffish (Anarhichas minor), starry ray (Raja radiata), and blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) were collected at Usuk. Pooled samples of fish liver and blue mussel were analysed for lower brominated PBDEs (BDE-47, BDE-99, BDE-100 and BDE-153). The highest PBDE levels were found in Qaqortoq followed by Igaliko and Usuk. The measured sum PBDE concentrations in shorthorn sculpin collected at Qaqortoq, Igaliko and Usuk, were 8.2, 3.1 and 2.1 all in units of microg kg(-1) wet weight. In female and male uvak collected at Usuk PBDE levels of 7.1 and 12.0 microg kg(-1) wet weight were measured, while the concentrations were 1.2 microg kg(-1) in spotted wolffish, 1.4 microg kg(-1) in starry ray and 0.11 microg kg(-1) in blue mussels from the same locality all measured on a wet weight basis. The highest concentrations were measured in uvak, a top-predator on fish indicating that PBDEs are biomagnifying. The level of tetra-hexa BDEs is 15-24 times lower than PCB levels measured in the same samples, except for shorthorn sculpin collected at Qaqortoq, where the level of PBDEs was 40 times lower than the level of PCBs. The high concentration of PCBs relative to PBDEs in shorthorn sculpin collected at Qaqortoq signifies a local emission of PCBs, which is higher than the local emission of PBDEs.     

Early prenatal direct gene diagnosis of cystic fibrosis in a twin pregnancy and subsequent selective termination

We present a case of prenatal diagnosis of cystic fibrosis (CF) in one twin at 11–12 weeks of gestation. The parents had previously had two children, one of whom is alive and healthy and one who died of CF at the age of 2½ months. The parents were both known to be carriers of the ΔF508 mutation. Chorionic villus sampling (CVS) was performed and direct gene analysis showed that one fetus was homozygous for the ΔF508 mutation, while the other fetus did not have the mutation at all. Both fetuses had normal karyotypes. Selective termination was subsequently performed. The pregnancy continued without complications except for mild pre-eclampsia at term. The woman had a Caesarean section. The genetic diagnosis was confirmed after birth.     

Prenatal aneuploidy detection in interphase cells by fluorescence in situ hybridization (Fish)

FISH is a quick, inexpensive, accurate, sensitive and relatively specific method for aneuploidy detection in samples of uncultured chorionic villus cells and amniotic fluid cells. FISH allows detection of the autosomal trisomies 13, 18 and 21 and X and Y abnormalities and any other chromosome abnormality for which a specific probe is available. The detection rate of these abnormalities is high in informative samples which have a concordance of > 99.5% with cytogenetic results. A relatively high number of abnormal cases are found in uninformative samples. However, such samples should be regarded as samples to be investigated further. Clinical experience with the use of FISH for prenatal diagnosis is now beyond 10,000 cases; a number of clinical protocols and smaller trials have also been carried out, resulting in 90% of attempted analyses giving informative results with a high detection rate and extraordinarily low false-positive and false-negative rates Unsolved problems remain, such as occasional technical failures, admixtures of maternal blood and up to 20% uninformative scoring results, especially for abnormal specimens. FISH is at present used as an adjunct to classical cytogenetic analysis. However, this should not be interpreted as meaning that FISH could not be used as a methodology in its own right. If FISH were to be considered a Diagnostic test then this might be the case, due to the risk of false-negative and false-positive results and the fact that FISH does not allow a diagnosis of certain structural abnormalities. If, on the other hand, FISH is considered a screening test, which means that in all abnormal (or indeterminate) cases, classical cytogenetic analysis would follow the abnormal screening test, the accuracy which is potentially higher than for other screening methods, for example in cases of trisomy 21, justifies FISH as a prenatal screening test in its own right.     

北极4个亚区的影响分析

在评价北极陆地生态系统影响时,人们常常强调物种和生态系统对环境变化响应的地理变化,这种变化往往与气候、生物多样性、植被带、生态系统结构和功能的南-北梯度相关联,可是,环境、生态系统的功能和结构上,以及环境史和当前气候变化的明显东-西变化显然也很重要.尽管一些地方变得温暖,但另一些地方却降温了,海洋、群岛和山脉等地理屏障的东西差异过去也对物种和植被带响应气候变化而改变分布区的能力产生了很大影响,同时,这些地理屏障为种群遗传分化和生物多样性热点区的形成提供了必要的隔离条件,这些屏障在未来气候变暖时,也将影响物种重新分布的能力.为了说明这种东西向的变化,同时也避免过分笼统或过于专业化,基于大尺度的天气和气候形成因素,北极气候影响评价项目确定了4个主要亚区.通过模拟与4个北极气候影响评价亚区有关的主要信息,导致物种分布区发生改变的地理屏障,特别是大陆的分布和海洋产生的隔离,明显会影响植被带的向北移动.对植被区向北移动的地理限制或者促进将影响将来碳的贮存和释放,以及生物圈与大气之间水和能量的交换.此外,气候变化使受威胁物种数量在各个亚区之间差别很大(白令海地区别尤其是热点),各个植被亚区重新分布的能力差异将影响每个区的生物多样性.总而言之,亚区分析表明,在整个北极地区水平上概括生态系统结构和功能的反应、物种的丧失,以及生物圈对气候系统的反馈的趋势是困难的,说明需要对北极陆地生态系统对于气候变化响应的空间变化性有深刻的认识.     

沿海农田林网建设关键技术的经济学择优

对江苏沿海地区农田林网的经营类型、造林树种、林带配置进行了技术经济学分析和多目标灰色局势决策择优。结果表明：农田林网经营类型宜选择复合经营的果材兼用型林网。造林树种可选择速生丰产的杨树等用材树种和经济效益高的桃树等果树。林网配置在海堤河岸上选择用材树种,营造基干林带,筑起大网格框架；在道路沟渠上立体配置林果树种,营造主林带和副林带,构建中网格；在脱盐排水沟上添加果树辅助林带,建立小网格,形成多树种多林种合作、大中小网格配套、多道防线联防、多效益多产品产出的复合配置模式。     

Genetic amniocentesis at 7–14 weeks of gestation

Genetic amniocentesis performed at 7–14 weeks of gestation was studied in a series of 138 patients of whom 50 wanted termination of pregnancy (⩽ 12 weeks). The material for analysis consisted of 132 samples due to two sampling failures and four samples being handled incorrectly. Forty-eight samples (36 per cent) were taken at 7–12 weeks of gestation, mainly transvaginally (36/48:75 per cent). The success rate of culture and karyotyping increased with the duration of pregnancy, but was only satisfactory from week 11 onwards. The time until harvest was then 14–15 days. The transvaginal approach is easy to perform and was accepted by the women, but we experienced bacterial or fungal overgrowth in 17 per cent of these samples, whereas no infection occurred in the samples taken transabdominally (n = 96). We conclude that genetic amniocentesis is feasible from week 11, but further studies concerning side effects, especially focusing on the procedure-related abortion risk, should be carried out before early amniocentesis is routinely applied.     

Fetal chromosome analysis: Screening for chromosome disease?

The aim of the study was to investigate the rationale of the current indications for fetal chromosome analysis. 5372 women had 5423 amniocenteses performed, this group constituting a consecutive sample at the chromosome laboratory, Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen from March 1973 to September 1980 (Group A + B). Pregnant women 35 years of age, women who previously had a chromosomally abnormal child, families with translocation carriers or other heritable chromosomal disease, families where the father was 50 years or more and women in families with a history of Down's syndrome (group A), were compared to women having amniocentesis, although considered not to have any increased risk of fetal chromosome abnormality (1390 pregnancies, group B). They were also compared with 750 consecutive pregnancies in women 25–34 years of age, in whom all heritable diseases were excluded (group Q. The risk of unbalanced chromosome abnormality in group A (women with elevated risk) is significantly higher than in group B + C (women without elevated risk) (relative risk 2–4). Women with a known familial translocation and women 40 years or more have a relative risk of 5–7 of having an unbalanced chromosome abnormality compared with women without elevated risk. Spontaneous abortion rate and prematurity rate did not differ from rates expected without amniocentesis. It is concluded that current indications may be characterized as a mixture of evident high risk factors and factors with only a minor influence on risk. Indications for amniocentesis should therefore be reconsidered. Because it must be considered impractical and ethically wrong to limit amniocentesis to the two mentioned real high risk groups, and illogical to continue the present policy, which is not based on clearcut evidence, the possibility of offering amniocentesis to all who want it, is discussed. Screening for chromosome disease in all pregnancies is not without problems, but may be reasonable in some localities.