Simulation and analysis of outbreaks of bark beetle infestations and their management at the stand level

Outbreaks of bark beetles in forests can result in substantial economic losses. Understanding the factors that influence the development and spread of bark beetle outbreaks is crucial for forest management and for predicting outbreak risks, especially with the expected global warming. Although much research has been done on the ecology and phenology of bark beetles, the complex interplay between beetles, host trees, beetle antagonists and forest management makes predicting beetle population development especially difficult. Using the recent infestations of the European Spruce Bark Beetle (Ips typographus L. Col. Scol.) in the Bavarian Forest National Park (Germany) as a case study, we developed a spatially explicit agent-based simulation model (SAMBIA) that takes into account individual trees and beetles. This model primarily provides a tool for analysing and understanding the spatial and temporal aspects of bark beetles outbreaks at the stand scale. Furthermore, the model should allow an estimation of the effectiveness of concurrent impacts of both antagonists and management to confine outbreak dynamics in practice. We also used the model to predict outbreak probabilities in various settings. The simulation results indicated a distinct threshold behaviour of the system in response to pressure by antagonists or management of the bark beetle population. Despite the different scenarios considered, we were able to extract from the simulations a simple rule of thumb for the successful control of an outbreak: if roughly 80% of individual beetles are killed by antagonists or foresters, outbreaks will rarely take place. Our model allows the core dynamics of this complex system to be reduced to this inherent common denominator.     

Uranium in stream and mineral water of the Federal Republic of Germany

The concentration of uranium was determined in 944 samples from stream water by the inductively coupled plasma quadrupole mass spectrometry (ICP-QMS) method and represented on a color-shaded contour map. Uranium concentrations in surface water were determined to be between 0.007 μg/l and 43.7 μg/l with median of 0.33 μg/l. The regional distribution of uranium is influenced primarily by lithological and anthropogenic factors. In Mecklenburg, northern Brandenburg, and eastern Schleswig-Holstein, elevated uranium concentrations coincide with the extent of the last Weichselian ice sheet. The maximum concentrations are observed in the surface waters of the old mining districts in the western part of the Ore Mountains and in eastern Thuringia. Elevated concentrations are found in areas of agriculturally used loess soils. These concentrations correlate with the use of phosphate fertilizers. There is a zone of elevated concentrations up to 10.0 μg U/l in the Keuper Sandstone area south of the Thuringian Forest and from northwest of Stuttgart as far as Coburg. The distribution of elevated values in mineral water shows a clear correlation with the elevated values in surface water and the geology of those locations. Bunter and Keuper strata are the most important uranium source.     

One laptop per child,local refurbishment or overseas donations? Sustainability assessment of computer supply scenarios for schools in Colombia

With the intention of bridging the ‘digital divide’ many programmes have been launched to provide computers for educational institutions, ranging from refurbishing second hand computers to delivering low cost new computers. The fast and economical provision of large quantities of equipment is one of the many challenges faced by such programmes. If an increase is to be achieved in the sustainability of computer supplies for schools, not only must equipment be provided, but also suitable training and maintenance delivered. Furthermore, appropriate recycling has to be ensured, so that end-of-life equipment can be dealt with properly. This study has evaluated the suitability of three computer supply scenarios to schools in Colombia: (i) ‘Colombian refurbishment’, -refurbishment of computers donated in Colombia, (ii) ‘Overseas refurbishment’, -import of computers which were donated and refurbished abroad, and (iii) ‘XO Laptop’, -purchase of low cost computers manufactured in Korea. The methods applied were: Material Flow Assessment, -to assess the quantities-, Life Cycle Assessment, -to assess the environmental impacts, and the application of the Multiple Attribute Utility Theory, -to analyse, evaluate and compare different scenarios. The most sustainable solution proved to be the local refurbishment of second hand computers of Colombian origin to an appropriate technical standard. The environmental impacts of such practices need to be evaluated carefully, as second hand appliances have to be maintained, require spare parts and sometimes use more energy than newer equipment. Providing schools with second hand computers from overseas and through programmes such as ‘One Laptop Per Child’ has the disadvantage that the potential for social improvements – such as creation of jobs and local industry involvement – is very low.     

Characterization of silver release from commercially available functional (nano)textiles

Silver, both in the nano as well as in other forms, is used in many applications including antimicrobial textiles. Washing of such textiles has already been identified as an important process that results in the release of silver into wastewater. This study thus investigated the release of silver from eight different commercially available silver-textiles during a washing and rinsing cycle. The silver released was size-fractionated and characterized using electron microscopy. In addition, the antimicrobial functionality of the textiles was tested before and after washing. Three of the textiles contained nanosized silver (labeled or confirmed by manufacturers’ information), another used a metallic silver wire and four contained silver in undeclared form. The initial silver content of the textiles was between 1.5 and 2925 mg Ag/kg. Only four of the investigated textiles leached detectable amounts of silver, of which 34-80% was in the form of particles larger than 450 nm. Microscopic analysis of the particles released in the washing solutions identified Ti/Si-AgCl nanocomposites, AgCl nanoparticles, large AgCl particles, nanosilver sulfide and metallic nano-Ag, respectively. The nanoparticles were mainly found in highly agglomerated form. The identified nanotextiles showed the highest antimicrobial activity, whereas some of the other textiles, e.g. the one with a silver wire and the one with the lowest silver content, did not reduce the growth of bacteria at all. The results show that different silver textiles release different forms of silver during washing and that among the textiles investigated AgCl was the most frequently observed chemical form in the washwater.     

U and Th in some brown coals of Serbia and Montenegro and their environmental impact

GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUND: The objective of this paper is to determine and compare the concentrations of U and Th in soft to hard brown (lignite to sub-bituminous) coals of Serbia and Montenegro. It also presents comparison of the obtained data on U and Th concentrations with the published data on coals located in some other countries of the world. Almost the whole coal production of Serbia and Montenegro is used as feed coals for combustion in thermal power plants. METHODS: Channel samples from open pit and underground mines and core samples were collected for hard and soft brown coals. For the analysis the samples were decomposed using microwave technique. Obtained solutions containing U and Th were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy (ICP-MS) using NIST standards. RESULTS: Concentration of U from the investigated basins and the corresponding mine fields ranges within 0.60-70.10 mg/kg, 0.65-3.20 mg/kg, 0.95-6.59 mg/kg, 1.20-6.05 mg/kg, 0.80-6.66 mg/kg, 0.18-89.90 mg/kg, 0.19-4.14 mg/kg, and 0.28-3.52 mg/kg for the Kostolac, Kolubara, Krepoljin, Sjenica, Soko Banja, Bogovina East field, Senje-Resavica and Pljevlja basins, respectively. Concentration of Th ranges within 0.20-2.60 mg/kg, 0.84-6.57 mg/kg, 1.48-6.48 mg/kg, 0.12-2.71 mg/kg, 0.13-4.95 mg/kg, 0.14-3.48 mg/kg, 0.29-3.56 mg/kg, and 0.17-1.89 mg/kg for the Kostolac, Kolubara, Krepoljin, Sjenica, Soko Banja, Bogovina East field, Senje-Resavica and Pljevlja basins, respectively. DISCUSSION: Brown coal from Senje-Resavica, Kolubara, Kostolac and Pljevlja is characterized by low U concentration. Coals form the Krepoljin, Soko Banja and Sjenica basins have slightly higher U concentrations than the mentioned group. The highest concentration of U is characteristic for the coal from the Bogovina East field. Concentration of Th in coals from Serbia and Montenegro has proved to be low. Out of all investigated coal basins, only the coal from the Krepoljin and Kolubara basins has high concentration of Th. The hydrothermally altered rocks of the Timok dacite-andesite complex, representing the basement of the Bogovina basin, could be a potential source of U, especially at the bottom part of the Lower seam of the Bogovina East field. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that brown coals in Serbia and Montenegro (soft to hard brown coals or lignite to sub-bituminous) contain low levels of U (5.30 mg/kg, average value and 2.10 mg/kg geometric mean value) and Th (1.80 mg/kg, average value and 1.12 mg/kg geometric mean value). There are some obvious differences in concentration of U and Th in coals from different basins in Serbia and Montenegro. The approximate value for U and Th release mainly from power plants was 644.33 t and 983.46 t, respectively within the period 1965-2000 for the studied mines in Serbia, and 23.76 t and 15.05 t for the Potrlica mine (Montenegro) within the period 1965-1997. RECOMMENDATIONS: The coals in Serbia and Montenegro show no identifiable unfavourable impact on the surrounding environment, due to low natural radioactive concentration of U and Th, but further investigations concerning human health should be performed. PERSPECTIVES: Preliminary research revealed that in some Serbian coals (and, particularly, parts of the coal seam) U and Th content are rather high. Such coals should be carefully studied, as well as U and Th concentrations in ash, fly ash, waste disposals, nearby soil and ground water. Further studies should include determination of the radioactivity of all these products, and estimation of possible health impact.     

20世纪重大自然灾害评析

人类在科学技术上取得了辉煌成绩的同时,在认识自然和改造自然方面也得到了才识和新的认识,这一教训主要是来自自然灾害。根据收集到的全球自然灾害有关数据,对２０世纪全球主要自然灾害特征分布特点进行了分析,并对其成因提出了看法。     

Anticipating Climate Threshold Damages

Several integrated assessment studies have concluded that future learning about the uncertainties involved in climate change has a considerable effect on welfare but only a small effect on optimal short-term emissions. In other words, learning is important but anticipation of learning is not. We confirm this result in the integrated assessment model “model of investment and technological development” for learning about climate sensitivity and climate damages. If learning about an irreversible threshold is included, though, we show that anticipation can become crucial both in terms of necessary adjustments of pre-learning emissions and resulting welfare gains. We specify conditions on the time of learning and the threshold characteristic, for which this is the case. They can be summarized as a narrow “anticipation window.”     

False-negative prenatal exclusion of Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome by measurement of fetal platelet count and size

The study of the fetal platelet count and size can, according to the literature, be used for the prenatal diagnosis of the Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome (WAS). So far, no affected fetuses have been identified by this method. All pregnancies in which this method had been applied to resulted, as correctly predicted, in the birth of normal children. Here we report on a familial case of WAS where the haematological parameters failed to reveal the affected second child. Hence we assume that the platelet count and size of platelets remain normal in fetuses with WAS to the gestational age of 22 weeks and cannot be used for prenatal diagnosis.     

Prenatal diagnosis and carrier detection in mucopolysaccharidosis type II by mutation analysis. A 47,xxy male heterozygous for a missense point mutation

Identification of iduronate-2-sulphatase (IDS) gene mutations in patients with mucopolysaccharidosis type II (MPS II, Hunter syndrome) allows fast and reliable carrier detection and prenatal diagnosis. We describe here three cases of prenatal diagnosis by direct detection of the gene mutation. In addition to two affected male fetuses from two different families, a 47,XXY fetus carrying both the normal and the mutant allele was diagnosed in a third family. The latter pregnancy was carried to term and the child is obviously not affected by MPS II.