Scenarios for investigating the future of Canada’s oceans and marine fisheries under environmental and socioeconomic change

Regional Environmental Change - There is a critical need to develop effective strategies for the long-term sustainability of Canada’s oceans. However, this is challenged by uncertainty over...     

Connecting today's climates to future climate analogs to facilitate movement of species under climate change

Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few researchers have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. We identified key areas likely to facilitate climate‐induced species’ movement across western North America. Using historical climate data sets and future climate projections, we mapped potential species’ movement routes that link current climate conditions to analogous climate conditions in the future (i.e., future climate analogs) with a novel moving‐window analysis based on electrical circuit theory. In addition to tracing shifting climates, the approach accounted for landscape permeability and empirically derived species’ dispersal capabilities. We compared connectivity maps generated with our climate‐change‐informed approach with maps of connectivity based solely on the degree of human modification of the landscape. Including future climate projections in connectivity models substantially shifted and constrained priority areas for movement to a smaller proportion of the landscape than when climate projections were not considered. Potential movement, measured as current flow, decreased in all ecoregions when climate projections were included, particularly when dispersal was limited, which made climate analogs inaccessible. Many areas emerged as important for connectivity only when climate change was modeled in 2 time steps rather than in a single time step. Our results illustrate that movement routes needed to track changing climatic conditions may differ from those that connect present‐day landscapes. Incorporating future climate projections into connectivity modeling is an important step toward facilitating successful species movement and population persistence in a changing climate.     

Using research-based knowledge to underpin waste and resources policy.

The concept of a knowledge-based approach to policy making (also referred to as 'evidence-based policy making' or 'science meets policy') has been around for 10 years, and is widely 'signed up to' by Governments. This paper examines the theory and the practice at national government (using the UK as a case study) and European levels, looking at how the knowledge-based approach has been applied in waste and resources management. There is general agreement that a knowledge-(or evidence-) based approach to policy making is a 'good thing'; however putting the concept into practice has proven challenging and is still evolving. The linkages between researchers and policy makers need to be further strengthened, as does the 'demand' for evidence from policy; requiring policy specialists to articulate their requirements for evidence sufficiently well in advance, and to do so routinely, is still an area of weakness. Using a model developed by the UK's Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), we examine in detail some of the implications of changing the question from 'is this good research on waste and resources issues?' to 'is this good evidence for waste and resources policy?'. The paper also provides recommendations for further work required to achieve this at a European level, and for priority areas where international co-ordination of waste and resources research could add most value to policy.     

Dealing with double trouble: consequences of single and double herbivory in Brassica juncea

In their natural environment, plants are often attacked simultaneously by many insect species. The specificity of induced plant responses that is reported after single herbivore attacks may be compromised under double herbivory and this may influence later arriving herbivores. The present study focuses on the dynamics of induced plant responses induced by single and double herbivory, and their effects on successive herbivores. Morphological (leaf length, area and trichome density) and chemical changes (leaf alkenyl and indole glucosinolates) in Brassica juncea were evaluated 4, 10, 14 and 20 days after damage by the specialist Plutella xylostella alone, or together with the generalist Spodoptera litura. To assess the biological effect of the plant’s responses, the preference and performance of both herbivores on previously induced plants were measured. We found that alkenyl glucosinolates were induced 20 days after damage by P. xylostella alone, whereas their levels were elevated as early as 4 days after double herbivory. Trichome density was increased in both treatments, but was higher after double herbivory. Interestingly, there was an overall decrease in indole glucosinolates and an increase in leaf size due to damage by P. xylostella, which was not observed during double damage. S. litura preferred and performed better on undamaged plants, whereas P. xylostella preferred damaged plants and performed better on plants damaged 14 and 10 days after single and double herbivory, respectively. Our results suggest that temporal studies involving single versus multiple attacker situations are necessary to comprehend the role of induced plant responses in plant–herbivore interactions.     

Growth and differentiation during delayed metamorphosis of feeding gastropod larvae: signatures of ancestry and innovation

Extent of larval growth among marine invertebrates has potentially profound implications for performance by benthic recruits because body size influences many biological processes. Among gastropods, feeding larvae often attain larger size at metamorphic competence than non-feeding larvae of basal gastropod clades. Delay of metamorphosis can further influence size at recruitment if larvae continue to grow during the delay. Some caenogastopod larvae grow during delayed metamorphosis, but opisthobranch larvae do not. Data on larval growth of neritimorph gastropods are needed to help determine which of these growth patterns for planktotrophic gastropod larvae is more derived. We cultured planktotrophic larvae from all three major gastropod clades with feeding larvae through delays of metamorphosis of 3–10 weeks. Larvae of the caenogastropod Euspira lewisii and the euthyneurans Haminoea vesicula (Opisthobranchia) and Siphonaria denticulata (Pulmonata) conformed to previously described growth patterns for their respective major clades. Furthermore, the caenogastropod continued to lengthen the prototroch (ciliary band for swimming and feeding) and to differentiate prospective post-metamorphic structures (gill filaments and radular teeth) during delayed metamorphosis. Larvae of the neritimorph Nerita atramentosa arrested shell growth during delayed metamorphosis but the radula continued to elongate, a pattern most similar to that of non-feeding larvae of Haliotis, a vetigastropod genus. Character mapping on a phylogenetic hypothesis suggests that large larval size and capacity for continued growth during delayed metamorphosis, as exhibited by some caenogastropods, is a derived innovation among feeding gastropod larvae. This novelty may have facilitated post-metamorphic evolution of predatory feeding using a long proboscis.     

Conflict and Impacts of Divers and Anglers in a Marine Park

The New South Wales State Government (Australia) gazetted the Jervis Bay Marine Park (JBMP) in 1998. During the preparation of the draft zoning plan in 2000, societal data on two conflicting park user groups—recreational scuba divers and fishers (anglers)—was collected. While conflict resolution was a plan priority, other factors, such as cumulative environmental impacts of users and protection for the critically endangered grey nurse shark (Carcharias taurus), further complicated planning. Both scuba diving and angling are primary summer activities and are disproportionately concentrated around the headlands of the bay. Furthermore, shore based game-fishing was concentrated on the northern headland, where the conflict was centered. However, when the exact locations of divers and anglers were determined, there was a partial partitioning of the available space, with only a small contested overlap. To resolve conflict and maximize positive environmental outcomes, a sanctuary zone and no-anchoring zone option in the draft zoning plan was sought to formalize this partition. The human dimension data proved valuable in guiding environmental management in this politically volatile situation. A baseline study conducted 11 years previously was also used to gain a limited perspective on change in user numbers. Comparison between study periods indicated dive numbers had remained similar, while the number of dive charter trips was significantly less. The numbers of anglers, for the four months compared, had doubled and tripled. The actual data used to inform management is presented and the limitations of this best available data approach are discussed.     

Mercury speciation in highly contaminated soils from chlor-alkali plants using chemical extractions

A four-step novel sequential extraction procedure (SEP) was developed to assess Hg fractionation and mobility in three highly contaminated soils from chlor-alkali plants (CAPs). The SEP was validated using a certified reference material (CRM) and pure Hg compounds. Total, volatile, and methyl Hg concentrations were also determined using single extractions. Mercury was separated into four fractions defined as water-soluble (F1), exchangeable (F2) (0.5 M NH4Ac-EDTA and 1 M CaCl2 were tested), organic (F3) (successive extractions with 0.2 M NaOH and CH3COOH 4% [v/v]), and residual (F4) (HNO3 + H2SO4 + HClO4). The soil characterization revealed extremely contaminated (295 +/- 18 to 11 500 +/- 500 mg Hg kg(-1)) coarse-grained sandy soils having an alkaline pH (7.9-9.1), high chloride concentrations (5-35 mg kg(-1)), and very low organic carbon content (0.00-18.2 g kg(-1)). Methyl Hg concentrations were low (0.2-19.3 microg kg(-1)) in all soils. Sequential extractions indicated that the majority of the Hg was associated with the residual fraction (F4). In Soils 1 and 3, however, high percentages (88-98%) of the total Hg were present as volatile Hg. Therefore, in these two soils, a high proportion of volatile Hg was present in the residual fraction. The nonresidual fraction (F1 + F2 + F3) was most abundant in Soil 1 (14-42%), suggesting a higher availability of Hg in this soil. The developed and validated SEP was reproducible and efficient for highly contaminated samples. Recovery ranged between 93 and 98% for the CRM and 70 and 130% for the CAP-contaminated soils.     

Modeling inorganic aerosols and their response to changes in precursor concentration in Mexico City

Based on data from the 1997 Investigación sobre Materia Particulada y Deterioro Atmosférico-Aerosol and Visibility Evaluation Research (IMADA-EVER) campaign and the inorganic aerosol model ISORROPIA, the response of inorganic aerosols to changes in precursor concentrations was calculated. The aerosol behavior is dominated by the abundance of ammonia and thus, changes in ammonia concentration are expected to have a small effect on particle concentrations. Changes in sulfate and nitrate are expected to lead to proportional reductions in inorganic fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Comparing the predictions of ISORROPIA with the observations, the lowest bias and error are achieved when the aerosols are assumed to be in the efflorescence branch. Including crustal species reduces the bias and error for nitrate but does not improve overall model performance. The estimated response of inorganic PM2.5 to changes in precursor concentrations is affected by the inclusion of crustal species in some cases, although average responses are comparable with and without crustal species. Observed concentrations of particle chloride suggest that gas phase concentrations of hydrogen chloride may not be negligible, and future measurement campaigns should include observations to test this hypothesis. Our ability to model aerosol behavior in Mexico City and, thus, design control strategies, is constrained primarily by a lack of observations of gas phase precursors. Future campaigns should focus in particular on better understanding the temporal and spatial distribution of ammonia concentrations. In addition, gas phase observations of nitric acid are needed, and a measure of particle water content will allow stable versus metastable aerosol behavior to be distinguished.     

Mixed models for assessing correlation in the presence of replication

The need to assess correlation in settings where multiple measurements are available on each of the variables of interest often arises in environmental science. However, this topic is not covered in introductory statistics texts. Although several ad hoc approaches can be used, they can easily lead to invalid conclusions and to a difficult choice of an appropriate measure of the correlation. Lam et al. approached this problem by using maximum likelihood estimation in cases where the replicate measurements are linked over time, but the method requires specialized software. We reanalyze the data of Lam et al. using PROC MIXED in SAS and show how to obtain the parameter estimates of interest with just a few lines of code. We then extend Lam et al.'s method to settings where the replicate measurements are not linked. Analysis of the unlinked case is illustrated with data from a study designed to assess correlations between indoor and outdoor measurements of benzene concentration in the air.