Divergent Perspectives on Expert Disagreement: Preliminary Evidence from Climate Science,Climate Policy,Astrophysics, and Public Opinion

We report the results of an exploratory study that examines the judgments of climate scientists, climate policy experts, astrophysicists, and non-experts (N?=?3367) about the factors that contribute to the creation and persistence of disagreement within climate science and astrophysics and about how one should respond to expert disagreement. We found that, as compared to non-experts, climate experts believe that within climate science (i) there is less disagreement about climate change, (ii) methodological factors play less of a role in generating disagreements, (iii) fewer personal or institutional biases influence climate research, and (iv) there is more agreement about which methods should be used to examine relevant phenomena we also observed that the uniquely American political context predicted experts’ judgments about some of these factors. We also found that, in regard to disagreements concerning cosmic ray physics, and commensurate with the greater inherent uncertainty and data lacunae in their field, astrophysicists working on cosmic rays were generally more willing to acknowledge expert disagreement, more open to the idea that a set of data can have multiple valid interpretations, and generally less quick to dismiss someone articulating a non-standard view as non-expert, than climate scientists were in regard to climate science.     

Cross-correlation between the controlled collision environment and real-world motor vehicle collisions: Evaluating the protection of the thoracic side airbag

Objective: Thoracic side airbags (tSABs) were integrated into the vehicle fleet to attenuate and distribute forces on the occupant's chest and abdomen, dissipate the impact energy, and move the occupant away from the intruding structure, all of which reduce the risk of injury. This research piece investigates and evaluates the safety performance of the airbag unit by cross-correlating data from a controlled collision environment with field data.

Method: We focus exclusively on vehicle–vehicle lateral impacts from the NHTSA's Vehicle Crash Test Database and NASS-CDS database, which are replicated in the controlled environment by the (crabbed) barrier impact. Similar collisions with and without seat-embedded tSABs are matched to each other and the injury risks are compared.

Results: Results indicated that dummy-based thoracic injury metrics were significantly lower with tSAB exposure (P <.001). Yet, when the controlled collision environment data were cross-correlated with NASS-CDS collisions, deployment of the tSAB indicated no association with thoracic injury (tho. MAIS 2+ unadjusted relative risk [RR] = 1.14; 90% confidence interval [CI], 0.80–1.62; tho. MAIS 3+ unadjusted RR = 1.12; 90% CI, 0.76–1.65).

Conclusion: The data from the controlled collision environment indicated an unequivocal benefit provided by the thoracic side airbag for the crash dummy; however, the real-world collisions demonstrate that no benefit is provided to the occupant. This has resulted from a noncorrelation between the crash test/dummy-based design taking the abstracting process too far to represent the real-world collision scenario.     

Analyzing the Effects of Groundwater Pumping on an Urban Stream‐Aquifer System

When the cone of influence of a pumping well reaches a nearby river, the resulting hydraulic gradient can induce enhanced seepage of streamflow into the aquifer. The rate of seepage is often modeled using analytical solutions that are simple to apply but may not reproduce field data due to mathematical assumptions not being met in the field. Furthermore, the appropriateness of such models has not been investigated in detail due to difficulty in measuring streamflow loss in the field. In this study, a field experiment was conducted on a reach of the South Platte River near Denver, Colorado to estimate pumping‐induced streamflow loss. A network of stream gauges, monitoring wells, and in situ measurements was used to observe streamflow rates, groundwater levels, and temperature to assess if pumping wells have a significant impact on streamflow, and to compare observed streamflow depletion against analytical solutions. Data collected suggest that pumping wells have a noticeable impact on streamflow. The analytical solutions proved accurate if streamflow was low and constant but performed poorly if streamflow was high and variable. Therefore, for this reach, the use of analytical solutions to predict streamflow may only be appropriate under low‐flow, constant‐flow conditions. Methods and results can be used to guide other streamflow depletion studies and to inform cases of pumping‐induced streamflow depletion, particularly in regard to water rights.     

Observations of particle growth at a remote,Arctic site

Observations of particle size distributions suggest that particles grow significantly just above the snow surface at a remote, Arctic site. Measurements were made at Summit, Greenland (71.38°N and 31.98°W) at approximately 3200 m above sea level. No new particle formation was observed locally, but growth of ultrafine particles was identified by continuous evolution of the geometric mean diameter (GMD) during four events. The duration of the growth during events was between 24 and 115 h, and calculated event-average growth rates (GR) were 0.09, 0.30, 0.27, and 0.18 nm h^?1 during each event, respectively. Four-hour GR up to 0.96 nm h^?1 were observed. Events occurred during below- and above-average temperatures and were independent of wind direction. Correlation analysis of hourly-calculated GR suggested that particle growth was limited by the availability of photochemically produced precursor gases. Sulfuric acid played a very minor role in particle growth, which was likely dominated by condensation of organic compounds, the source of which was presumably the snow surface. The role of boundary layer dynamics is not definite, although some mixing at the surface is necessary for the observation of particle growth. Due to the potentially large geographic extent of events, observations described here may provide a link between long-range transport of mid-latitude pollutants and climate regulation in the remote Arctic.     

Exposure to ultrafine particles and PM2.5 in four Sydney transport modes

Concentrations of ultrafine (<0.1 μm) particles (UFPs) and PM_2.5 (<2.5 μm) were measured whilst commuting along a similar route by train, bus, ferry and automobile in Sydney, Australia. One trip on each transport mode was undertaken during both morning and evening peak hours throughout a working week, for a total of 40 trips. Analyses comprised one-way ANOVA to compare overall (i.e. all trips combined) geometric mean concentrations of both particle fractions measured across transport modes, and assessment of both the correlation between wind speed and individual trip means of UFPs and PM_2.5, and the correlation between the two particle fractions. Overall geometric mean concentrations of UFPs and PM_2.5 ranged from 2.8 (train) to 8.4 (bus) × 10⁴ particles cm^?3 and 22.6 (automobile) to 29.6 (bus) μg m^?3, respectively, and a statistically significant difference (p < 0.001) between modes was found for both particle fractions. Individual trip geometric mean concentrations were between 9.7 × 10³ (train) and 2.2 × 10⁵ (bus) particles cm^?3 and 9.5 (train) to 78.7 (train) μg m^?3. Estimated commuter exposures were variable, and the highest return trip mean PM_2.5 exposure occurred in the ferry mode, whilst the highest UFP exposure occurred during bus trips. The correlation between fractions was generally poor, and in keeping with the duality of particle mass and number emissions in vehicle-dominated urban areas. Wind speed was negatively correlated with, and a generally poor determinant of, UFP and PM_2.5 concentrations, suggesting a more significant role for other factors in determining commuter exposure.     

Comparison of adsorption models in reservoir simulation of enhanced coalbed methane recovery and CO2 sequestration in coal

Coalbed methane is an important resource of energy. Meanwhile CO₂ sequestration in coal is a potential management option for greenhouse gas emissions. An attractive aspect to this process is that CO₂ is adsorbed to the coal, reducing the risk of CO₂ migration to the surface. Another aspect to this is that the injected CO₂ could displace adsorbed methane leading to enhanced coalbed methane recovery. Therefore, in order to understand gas migration within the reservoir, mixed-gas adsorption models are required. Moreover, coal reservoir permeability will be significantly affected by adsorption-induced coal swelling during CO₂ injection. Coal swelling is directly related to reservoir pressure and gas content which is calculated by adsorption models in reservoir simulation. Various models have been studied to describe the pure- and mixed-gas adsorption on coal. Nevertheless, only the Langmuir and Extended Langmuir models are usually applied in coal reservoir simulations. This paper presents simulation work using several approaches to representing gas adsorption, implemented into the coal seam gas reservoir simulator SIMED II. The adsorption models are the Extended Langmuir model (ELM), the Ideal Adsorbed Solution (IAS) model and the Two-Dimensional Equation of State (2D EOS). The simulations based on one Australian and one American coal sample demonstrated that (1) the Ideal Adsorbed Solution model, in conjunction with Langmuir model as single-component isotherm, shows similar simulation results as the ELM for both coals, with the IAS model representing the experimental adsorption data more accurately than the ELM for one coal and identically with the ELM for the other coal; (2) simulation results using the 2D EOS, however, are significantly different to the ELM or IAS model for both coal samples. The magnitude of the difference is also dependent on coal swelling and the well operating conditions, such as injection pressure.     

Moving beyond the conceptual: specificity in regional climate change adaptation actions for biodiversity in South East Queensland,Australia

While many scientific assessments have been recommending general strategies for biodiversity conservation under climate change, translation of these recommendations into specific actions and practice has been limited. Focusing on two biomes, rainforest and wetlands in biodiverse South East Queensland, Australia, we demonstrate how general principles can be translated into specific actions for stakeholders and responsible agencies. We synthesize research that is contextualizing protection of refugia and habitat connectivity, establishing baseline data sets to detect change and developing strategic conservation planning scenarios to adjust reserve boundaries or situate new reserves. This has been achieved by coupling spatial information on biological assets (i.e. ecosystems and species) with future climate scenarios and process models to anticipate movement of critical habitats. Conservation planning software is also being used to prioritize investment to meet specific objectives. This approach is enabling us to identify at-risk biological assets, opportunities to ameliorate threats and obstacles to delivering regional adaptation actions. A larger total reserved area is needed, with proactive planning to capture areas further inland and along watercourses. Major obstacles include conflict between urbanization and priorities for habitat conservation and the need for greater levels of investment for monitoring programmes and to protect landward shifted wetlands on private land.     

Importance of fish gender as a factor in environmental monitoring of mercury

Total mercury concentrations were determined in the gonadal tissues of 15 female and 10 male European perch (Perca fluviatilis) from one location of the stream “Jevanský potok” located about 30 km from Prague (Czech Republic). Tissue samples were frozen at ?26 °C in polypropylene containers until further processing, which was carried out using an Advance Mercury Analyser (single purpose atomic absorption spectrometer). Mercury concentrations were present in all analysed gonad samples, and ranged from 2.3 to 12.7 μg/kg wet weight. However, we determined a mean Hg concentration (9.45 μg/kg) in male gonads that was 2.4 times greater than that of female gonads (3.9 μg/kg). This is an important finding when taking into account fish sex in environmental pollution monitoring (especially for mercury contamination).     

Nocturnal NO3 radical chemistry in Houston,TX

Radical chemistry in the nocturnal urban boundary layer is dominated by the nitrate radical, NO₃, which oxidizes hydrocarbons and, through the aerosol uptake of N₂O₅, indirectly influences the nitrogen budget. The impact of NO₃ chemistry on polluted atmospheres and urban air quality is, however, not well understood, due to a lack of observations and the strong impact of vertical stability of the boundary layer, which makes nocturnal chemistry highly altitude dependent.Here we present long-path DOAS observations of the vertical distribution of the key nocturnal species O₃, NO₂, and NO₃ during the TRAMP experiment in Summer 2006 in Houston, TX. Our observations confirm the altitude dependence of nocturnal chemistry, which is reflected in the concentration profiles of all trace gases at night. In contrast to other study locations, NO₃ chemistry in Houston is dominated by industrial emissions of alkenes, in particular of isoprene, isobutene, and sporadically 1,3-butadiene, which are responsible for more than 70% of the nocturnal NO₃ loss. The nocturnally averaged loss of NO_x in the lowest 300 m of the Houston atmosphere is ～0.9 ppb h^?1, with little day-to-day variability. A comparison with the daytime NO_x loss shows that NO₃ chemistry is responsible for 16–50% of the NO_x loss in a 24-h period in the lowest 300 m of the atmosphere. The importance of the NO₃ + isoprene/1,3-butadiene reactions implies the efficient formation of organic nitrates and secondary organic aerosol at night in Houston.     

Origins of green turtle (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Chelonia mydas</Emphasis>) feeding aggregations around Barbados,West Indies

Although green turtles (Chelonia mydas Linnaeus) do not nest in Barbados, the easternmost island in the Caribbean archipelago, juveniles are regularly seen foraging in nearshore waters. To examine the stock composition of this foraging population, mitochondrial (mt) DNA control region sequences were analysed from 60 juvenile (31–70 cm curved carapace length) green turtles and compared with data published for key nesting populations in the Atlantic, as well as other feeding grounds (FGs) in the Caribbean. Eight distinct haplotypes were recognised among the 60 individual green turtles sampled around Barbados. Three of the haplotypes found have only previously been reported from western Caribbean nesting beaches, and two only from South Atlantic beaches. The nesting beach origin of one of the Barbados FG haplotypes is as yet unidentified. Stock mixture analysis based on Bayesian methods showed that the Barbados FG population is a genetically mixed stock consisting of approximately equal contributions from nesting beaches in Ascension Island (25.0%), Aves Island/Surinam (23.0%), Costa Rica (19.0%), and Florida (18.5%), with a lesser but significant contribution from Mexico (10.3%). Linear regression analysis indicated no significant effects of rookery population size or distance of the rookery from the FG on estimated contributions from the source rookeries to the Barbados FG. Our data suggest that the similar-sized green turtles sampled on the Barbados FG are a mixed stock of more diverse origins than any previously sampled feeding aggregations in the Caribbean region. The relatively large contribution from the Ascension Island rookery to the Barbados FG indicates that hatchlings from distant rookeries outside the Caribbean basin enter the North Atlantic gyre and become a significant part of the pool from which eastern Caribbean foraging populations are derived. These data support a life cycle model that incorporates a tendency of immatures to migrate from their initial foraging grounds at settlement towards suitable foraging grounds closer to their natal rookeries as they mature.Communicated by P.W. Sammarco, Chauvin