Managing water through change and uncertainty: comparing lessons from the adaptive co-management literature to recent policy developments in England

Water management is set to become increasingly variable and unpredictable, in particular because of climate change. This paper investigates the extent to which water policy in England provides an enabling environment for ‘adaptive co-management’, which its proponents claim can achieve the dual objective of ecosystem protection and livelihood sustainability under conditions of change and uncertainty. Five policy categories are derived from a literature review, and are used to conduct a directed content analysis of seven key water policy documents. The findings reveal that although, in part, English water policy serves as an enabling environment for adaptive co-management, there is a level of discrepancy between substantive aspects of the five policy categories and water policy in England. Addressing these discrepancies will be important if English water policy is to allow for the emergence of processes, like adaptive co-management, that are capable of coping with the challenges that lie ahead.     

Characterizing the spatiotemporal variability of PM2.5 in Cusco,Peru using kriging with external drift

Advancing the understanding of spatiotemporal aspects of air pollution in the urban environment is an area where improved methods can be of great benefit to exposure assessment and policy support. This paper explores the potential of a technique known as kriging with external drift (KED) to provide high resolution maps of fine particulate matter for a downtown region of Cusco, Peru. There were three stages in this research. The first was to conduct a pilot level monitoring campaign to investigate ambient, regional, and street-level air pollutant concentrations for particulate matter (PM_2.5, PM₁₀) and carbon monoxide (CO) in the Province of Cusco. The second was to compile observations within a geographic information system (GIS) in order to characterize the proximal effect of the local transportation network, elevation, and land use classifications on PM_2.5. Third, regression, ordinary kriging and kriging with external drift were used to model PM_2.5 for three select time periods during a 24-h day. Statistical evaluations indicate kriging with external drift resulted in the strongest models explaining 64% of variability seen with morning particle concentrations, 25% for afternoon particles, and 53% in evening particles. These models capture spatial and temporal variability for air pollution in Cusco. These variations seem to be influenced, to varying degrees, by elevation, meteorological conditions, spatial location, and transportation characteristics. In conclusion, combining GIS, meteorological data and geostatistics proved to be a complementary suite of tools for incorporating spatiotemporal analysis into the air quality assessment.     

On-road ultrafine particle concentration in the M5 East road tunnel,Sydney, Australia

The human health effects following exposure to ultrafine (<100 nm) particles (UFPs) produced by fuel combustion, while not completely understood, are generally regarded as detrimental. Road tunnels have emerged as locations where maximum exposure to these particles may occur for the vehicle occupants using them. This study aimed to quantify and investigate the determinants of UFP concentrations in the 4 km twin-bore (eastbound and westbound) M5 East tunnel in Sydney, Australia. Sampling was undertaken using a condensation particle counter (CPC) mounted in a vehicle traversing both tunnel bores at various times of day from May through July, 2006. Supplementary measurements were conducted in February, 2008. Over three hundred transects of the tunnel were performed, and these were distributed evenly between the bores. Additional comparative measurements were conducted on a mixed route comprising major roads and shorter tunnels, all within Sydney. Individual trip average UFP concentrations in the M5 East tunnel bores ranged from 5.53 × 10⁴ p cm^?3 to 5.95 × 10⁶ p cm^?3. Data were sorted by hour of capture, and hourly median trip average (HMA) UFP concentrations ranged from 7.81 × 10⁴ p cm^?3 to 1.73 × 10⁶ p cm^?3. Hourly median UFP concentrations measured on the mixed route were between 3.71 × 10⁴ p cm^?3 and 1.55 × 10⁵ p cm^?3. Hourly heavy diesel vehicle (HDV) traffic volume was a very good determinant of UFP concentration in the eastbound tunnel bore (R² = 0.87), but much less so in the westbound bore (R² = 0.26). In both bores, the volume of passenger vehicles (i.e. unleaded gasoline-powered vehicles) was a significantly poorer determinant of particle concentration. When compared with similar studies reported previously, the measurements described here were among the highest recorded concentrations, which further highlights the contribution road tunnels may make to the overall UFP exposure of vehicle occupants.     

Development and application of microwave assisted extraction (MAE) for the extraction of five polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in sediment samples in Johannesburg area, South Africa

A microwave-assisted extraction (MAE) method was verified and applied for the extraction of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in sediment samples. Soxhlet extraction was used as the reference method. The optimum MAE was carried out with 20 mL of hexane/acetone (1:1, v/v) mixture in a 1-g sample at 250 W for 20 min. Soxhlet extraction was carried out with 250 mL of dichloromethane:hexane (1:1, v/v) mixture in a 15-g sample for 24 h in a water bath maintained at 60 °C. The collected extracts were both cleaned up, reduced to 1 mL under nitrogen and then injected into an HPLC fluorescence. To increase the sample throughput, simultaneous MAE was performed. The obtained percentage recoveries ranged from 61 to 93 and 88–98 for MAE and SE, respectively. The optimised MAE method was validated using certified reference material. It was then applied to real sediment samples from in and around the greater Johannesburg area. The sediments from Jukskei River were found to be the most polluted while Hartbeespoort Dam sediments were found to be least polluted. The overall order of concentrations for the studied PAHs per site was as follows: Jukskei River?>?Kempton Park?>?Centurion Dams?>?Natalspruit River (PIT)?>?Hartbeespoort Dam.     

The short-term effects of a routine poisoning campaign on the movements and detectability of a social top-predator

Top-predators can be important components of resilient ecosystems, but they are still controlled in many places to mitigate a variety of economic, environmental and/or social impacts. Lethal control is often achieved through the broad-scale application of poisoned baits. Understanding the direct and indirect effects of such lethal control on subsequent movements and behaviour of survivors is an important pre-requisite for interpreting the efficacy and ecological outcomes of top-predator control. In this study, we use GPS tracking collars to investigate the fine-scale and short-term movements of dingoes (Canis lupus dingo and other wild dogs) in response to a routine poison-baiting program as an example of how a common, social top-predator can respond (behaviourally) to moderate levels of population reduction. We found no consistent control-induced differences in home range size or location, daily distance travelled, speed of travel, temporal activity patterns or road/trail usage for the seven surviving dingoes we monitored immediately before and after a typical lethal control event. These data suggest that the spatial behaviour of surviving dingoes was not altered in ways likely to affect their detectability, and if control-induced changes in dingoes' ecological function did occur, these may not be related to altered spatial behaviour or movement patterns.     

Mobility of arsenic, cadmium and zinc in a multi-element contaminated soil profile assessed by in-situ soil pore water sampling, column leaching and sequential extraction

Three methods for predicting element mobility in soils have been applied to an iron-rich soil, contaminated with arsenic, cadmium and zinc. Soils were collected from 0 to 30 cm, 30 to 70 cm and 70 to 100 cm depths in the field and soil pore water was collected at different depths from an adjacent 100 cm deep trench. Sequential extraction and a column leaching test in the laboratory were compared to element concentrations in pore water sampled directly from the field. Arsenic showed low extractability, low leachability and occurred at low concentrations in pore water samples. Cadmium and zinc were more labile and present in higher concentrations in pore water, increasing with soil depth. Pore water sampling gave the best indication of short term element mobility when field conditions were taken into account, but further extraction and leaching procedures produced a fuller picture of element dynamics, revealing highly labile Cd deep in the soil profile.     

Climate change, water availability and future cereal production in China

Climate scenarios from a regional climate model are used to drive crop and water simulation models underpinned by the IPCC A2 and B2 socio-economic development pathways to explore water availability for agriculture in China in the 2020s and 2040s. Various measures of water availability are examined at river basin and provincial scale in relation to agricultural and non-agricultural water demand and current and planned expansions to the area under irrigation. The objectives are to understand the influences of different drivers on future water availability to support China's food production. Hydrological simulations produce moderate to large increases in total water availability in response to increases in future precipitation. Total water demand increases nationally and in most basins, but with a decreasing share for agriculture due primarily to competition from industrial, domestic and municipal sectors. Crop simulations exhibit moderate to large increases in irrigation water demand which is found to be highly sensitive to the characteristics of daily precipitation in the climate scenarios. The impacts of climate change on water availability for agriculture are small compared to the role of socio-economic development.The study identifies significant spatial differences in impacts at the river basin and provincial level. In broad terms water availability for agriculture declines in southern China and remains stable in northern China. The combined impacts of climate change and socio-economic development produce decreases in future irrigation areas, especially the area of irrigated paddy rice. Overall, the results suggest that there will be insufficient water for agriculture in China in the coming decades, due primarily to increases in water demand for non-agricultural uses, which will have significant implications for adaptation strategies and policies for agricultural production and water management.