Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Effects of two organophosphorus insecticides on some biochemical constituents in the nervous system and liver of rabbits

Male Baladi rabbits were acutely and sub-chronically intoxicated with cyanofenphos and profenophos. The levels of cholesterol, triglycerides, B-lipoproteins and total proteins were determined in the serum, brain, spinal cord and sciatic nerve of rabbits. Moreover, the activities of alkaline phosphatase, acid phosphatase and glutamic-pyruvic transaminase were determined in the liver of the animals. The whole studies revealed that the biochemical constituents were highly affected by the tested insecticides. Also, the liver function suffered from adverse effects of the tested insecticides.     

Adaptive reversals in acid tolerance in copepods from lakes recovering from historical stress.

Anthropogenic habitat disturbance can often lead to rapid evolution of environmental tolerances in taxa that are able to withstand the stressor. What we do not understand, however, is how species respond when the stressor no longer exists, especially across landscapes and over a considerable length of time. Once anthropogenic disturbance is removed and if there is an ecological trade-off associated with local adaptation to such an historical stressor, then evolutionary theory would predict evolutionary reversals. On the Boreal Shield, tens of thousands of lakes acidified as a result of SO2 emissions, but many of these lakes are undergoing chemical recovery as a consequence of reduced emissions. We investigated the adaptive consequences of disturbance and recovery to zooplankton living in these lakes by asking (1) if contemporary evolution of acid tolerance had arisen among Leptodiaptomus minutus copepod populations in multiple circum-neutral lakes with and without historical acidification, (2) if L. minutus populations were adaptively responding to reversals in selection in historically acidified lakes that had recovered to pH 6.0 for at least 6-8 years, and (3) if there was a fitness trade-off for L. minutus individuals with high acid tolerance at circum-neutral pH. L. minutus populations had higher acid tolerances in circum-neutral lakes with a history of acidification than in local and distant lakes that were never acidified. However, copepods in circum-neutral acid-recovering lakes were less acid-tolerant than were copepods in lakes with longer recovery time. This adaptive reversal in acid tolerance of L. minutus populations following lake recovery was supported by the results of a laboratory experiment that indicated a fitness trade-off in copepods with high acid tolerances at circum-neutral pH. These responses appear to have a genetic basis and suggest that L. minutus is highly adaptive to changes in environmental conditions. Therefore, restoration managers should focus on removing environmental stressors, and adaptable species will be able to reverse evolutionary responses to environmental disturbance in the years following recovery.     

Biodegradation of crosslinked acrylic polymers by a white-rot fungus

Two synthetic superabsorbent crosslinked acrylic polymers were mineralized by the white-rot fungusPhanerochaete chrysosporium. The amount of polymer converted to CO₂ increased as the amount of polymer added to the cultures increased. In the presence of sufficiently large amounts of the superabsorbents, such that all of the culture fluid was absorbed and a gelatinous matrix was formed, the fungus still grew and mineralization was observed. Neither the polymers, nor their degradation products were toxic to the fungus. While the rates of mineralization were low, all of the polymers incubated in the liquid fungal cultures were completely depolymerized to water soluble products within 15–18 days. The depolymerization of the polymers was observed only in nitrogen limited cultures of the fungus which secrete the lignin degradation system, however, the water soluble products of depolymerization were mineralized in both nutrient limited and sufficient cultures of the fungus. The rate of mineralization of the depolymerized metabolites was more than two times greater in nutrient sufficient cultures. Following longer incubation periods, most (> 80 %) of the radioactivity was recovered in the fungal mycelial mat suggesting that carbon of the polymer had been converted to fungal metabolites.     

Stability of a Coal Waste Artificial Reef

The feasibility of using U.K. coal-fired power station waste materials for artificial reef production is being examined. in June, 1989, an experimental artificial reef was constructed in Poole Bay, off the central south coast of the U.K., using three different mixtures of pulverised fuel ash (PFA), flue gas desulphurisation (FGD) gypsum and slurry, stabilized with cement and formed into blocks. Fifty tonnes of 40 × 20 × 20 cm blocks were formed into eight conical reef units replicating three different PFA/gypsum mixtures and one concrete control. the reef structure is 10m below chart datum on a flat sandy sea-bed.

Combustion of coal concentrates the heavy metal content in the resultant ash. the purpose of stabilization of the ash as blocks is twofold: to immobilize heavy metals (or other components) and to provide hard substratum for the attachment of organisms. to examine the effectiveness of this stabilization and hence the environmental compatibility of the block materials, heavy metal (Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, Mn, Ni, Zn) content of the blocks has been monitored routinely over two years, to determine leaching rates. Sectional profiles indicate partial replacement of calcium content by magnesium. Associated with this there has also been some redistribution of heavy metals. Only in the case of cadmium has there been a detectable loss from the surface of blocks. Chromium and manganese concentrations appear to have increased. the metal content of the reef epibiota (including ascidians, Ascidia mentula; hydroids, Halecium spp.; bryozoans, Bugula spp. and red algae) growing on the ash blocks has been compared to that of epibiota attached to the concrete controls and surrounding sea-bed. to date no evidence of excess bioaccumulation of metals has been detected.

The physical integrity of the ash reef blocks has been maintained. There is evidence that the blocks are increasing in compressive strength.

An indication of the fishery enhancement potential of the experimental structure is given by the presence of eight commercially fished species (crustaceans and molluscs) including lobsters (Homarus gammarus).