THE LONG-RANGE ENERGY PERSPECTIVE

The author reviews general questions affecting energy projections and goes on to examine reserve forecasts for each type of energy. The last part of the paper considers consumption forecasts and makes an assessment of the likely situation in the year 2000.     

Development of some natural matrix standards — Progress report

Substantial progress has been made in the production of environmental level, natural matrix, radioactivity standards of soil of low organic and low carbonate content, and of human lung and human liver. This is in response to the deliberations of the 1977 ICRM meeting at which the need for such standards was voiced and the criteria suggested. The soil samples have been reduced to optimum particle size and are ready for blending and standardization. A ten year supply of this standard should be ready in a year or less. Reducing the dried lung and liver to less than 74 μm has proven formidable because of the natural fat and oil content. Using cyrogenic milling techniques more than three quarters of the total mass of each has been reduced to the desired particle size; the balance will either be reduced or removed and we can then proceed to the final standardization.     

Fertility and air pollution: Some empirical findings

This paper attempts to explain regional differences in fertility rates in the standard metropolitan statistical areas of the United States through socioeconomic factors and air pollution. An important feature of this study is that it uses the most recent data pertaining to a homogeneous sample of observations within a country rather than using data for different countries. Statistical results suggest that given other factors, fertility and the level of air pollution have an inverse relationship. This quantitative effect is statistically significant but the absolute impact is rather low. Our results also suggest that an increase in the level of income, relative education of females, temperature, and the availability of physicians would in the long run reduce fertility rates in the urban areas of the United States.     

An interdisciplinary review of current and future approaches to improving human–predator relations

In a world of shrinking habitats and increasing competition for natural resources, potentially dangerous predators bring the challenges of coexisting with wildlife sharply into focus. Through interdisciplinary collaboration among authors trained in the humanities, social sciences, and natural sciences, we reviewed current approaches to mitigating adverse human–predator encounters and devised a vision for future approaches to understanding and mitigating such encounters. Limitations to current approaches to mitigation include too much focus on negative impacts; oversimplified equating of levels of damage with levels of conflict; and unsuccessful technical fixes resulting from failure to engage locals, address hidden costs, or understand cultural (nonscientific) explanations of the causality of attacks. An emerging interdisciplinary literature suggests that to better frame and successfully mitigate negative human–predator relations conservation professionals need to consider dispensing with conflict as the dominant framework for thinking about human–predator encounters; work out what conflicts are really about (they may be human–human conflicts); unravel the historical contexts of particular conflicts; and explore different cultural ways of thinking about animals. The idea of cosmopolitan natures may help conservation professionals think more clearly about human–predator relations in both local and global context. These new perspectives for future research practice include a recommendation for focused interdisciplinary research and the use of new approaches, including human‐animal geography, multispecies ethnography, and approaches from the environmental humanities notably environmental history. Managers should think carefully about how they engage with local cultural beliefs about wildlife, work with all parties to agree on what constitutes good evidence, develop processes and methods to mitigate conflicts, and decide how to monitor and evaluate these. Demand for immediate solutions that benefit both conservation and development favors dispute resolution and technical fixes, which obscures important underlying drivers of conflicts. If these drivers are not considered, well‐intentioned efforts focused on human–wildlife conflicts will fail.