Groundwater pollution due to discharge of tannery effluents in Upper Palar basin, Tamilnadu, India: an assessment through mass transport modeling

The groundwater regime in Upper Palar basin, Tamilnadu has been highly contaminated in several locations due to discharge of effluents from a large number of tanneries. At some places total dissolved solids (TDS) concentration in groundwater was found as high as 8000 mg/l. Transmissivity and storativity of the regional aquifer were estimated at a few locations. The porosity and dispersivity values were not determined in the field. These parameters were assumed based on data available for similar geological formations elsewhere. The aquifer conceptualization thus arrived at formed the basis of a numerical groundwater flow model which was constructed using the finite difference method. The flow model was calibrated for steady state and then for transient condition for the period of 1984-92. The computed heads and calibrated parameters of the flow model were used to compute groundwater velocities. The migration of contaminants for a 20 year period was computed using the hydraulic heads and effective porosity value in a pathline model using FLOWPATH software. Mass transport model was constructed using Method of Characteristics (MOC) computer code in a separate model. The seepage rate of effluent is assumed at a rate of 30% of that discharged on the surface. The mass concentration of solute in the effluent reaching the water table was assumed as 40%, the same as in the surface effluent. The mass transport model was calibrated for a 20 year period. Prediction of contaminant migration from different clusters in the basin was analyzed. The prediction results indicated elevated TDS concentration of more than 4000 mg/l from most clusters. Also the area of the contaminated zone is likely to double in 20 years from contaminated zone of 1992.     

Enhanced twin pregnancy detection within an open neural tube defect and down syndrome screening protocol using free-beta hCG and AFP

We have applied our multimarker approach of maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and free-beta human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) for Down syndrome screening to multiple gestations to assess its efficacy for improved detection of twin and triplet pregnancies. This study matched 225 cases of twin pregnancy and 39 cases of triplet pregnancy each with ten singleton pregnancies based on gestational week, race, time to receive sample, time of year of sample, and geographical area. The ratios of the MOM for each group at the tenth, 50th, and 90th percentiles were compared by the Wilcoxon test. Risks for twins were calculated using Bayes' rule, the age-related incidence of twins, and the levels of AFP and free-beta hCG. The tenth, 50th, and 90th percentiles of free-beta hCG MOMs in twin and triplet cases were 0.85, 1.99, and 4.51, and 1.38, 2.78, and 4.07, respectively. For AFP, the MOMs at these percentiles were 1.26, 1.91, and 2.99, and 2.02, 2.68, and 5.30, respectively. The twin and triplet distributions for each marker were statistically significantly different from the singleton distributions (P<0.0001) and from each other (P=0.0012). At a twin risk cut-off of 1 in 50, 77.4 per cent of all twin gestations can be detected in a second-trimester AFP and free-beta hCG screening protocol with 5.1 per cent of singleton pregnancies falsely identified as at risk for twins. Our dual marker protocol for mid-trimester pregnancy screening combining AFP and free-beta hCG can identify over 77 per cent of twin pregnancies in women less than 35 years of age. This benefit may contribute to an improved outcome of pregnancy by early detection of multiple gestation.     

The association between alpha-fetoprotein and βhcg levels prior to and following chorionic villus sampling in cases that spontaneously miscarried

Maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (βhCG) measurements taken prior to chorionic villus sampling (CVS) in 21 patients who subsequently miscarried were compared with measurements in a control group of 113 patients with uneventful pregnancies. Patients with AFP levels of 10 iu/ml or more prior to the CVS had a 4·3 times greater risk of miscarriage (95 per cent confidence interval 1·3–13·6). AFP levels obtained 1 week after the CVS in the 13 patients with late miscarriages were higher than in the control group (P = 0·06). Patients miscarrying had a greater rise in AFP (P = 0·06) and a greater fall in βhCG levels (P = 0·04) following the CVS procedure, compared with the control subjects. Each 10-unit change in the difference between AFP or βhCG levels prior to and 1 week following the CVS was associated with a significantly increased risk for late miscarriage. Elevated maternal serum AFP levels early in pregnancy and changes in AFP and βhCG levels following CVS may predict an increased risk for subsequent miscarriage.