METHODOLOGIES FOR CALIBRATION AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.     

Respiration and lipid content of the Arctic copepod<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Calanus hyperboreus</Emphasis> overwintering 1 m above the seafloor at 2,300 m water depth in the Fram Strait

In August 2000 high concentrations of the dominant herbivorous copepod Calanus hyperboreus were detected in the Arctic Fram Strait, west of Spitsbergen, 1 m above the seafloor at 2,290 m water depth. Individuals from that layer were sampled by a hyper-benthic net attached to the frame of an epi-benthic sledge. For comparison, the vertical distribution of C. hyperboreus in the water column was studied simultaneously by a multiple opening/closing net haul from 2,250 m depth to the surface. Maximum abundance was found close to the surface with 6.6 and 10.0 ind. m^?3 at 0–50 m and 50–100 m depth, respectively. However, the major fraction of the population (>40%) occurred between 1,000 and 1,500 m depth. In the deepest layer (2,000–2,250 m) abundance measured 2.2 ind. m^?3 and was twice as high as between 100 and 1,000 m depth. In comparison to individuals from surface waters, copepods from the hyper-benthic layer were torpid and did not react to mechanical stimuli. Stage CV copepodids and females from the deep sample contained 4–10% less lipid and showed significantly reduced respiration rates of 0.24 and 0.26 ml O₂ h^?1 g^?1 dry mass (DM) as compared to surface samples (0.49 and 0.43 ml O₂ h^?1 g^?1 DM). All these observations indicate that the hyper-benthic part of the population had already started a dormant overwintering phase at great depth. Based on the lipid deposits and energy demands, the potential maximum duration of the non-feeding dormant phase was estimated at 76–110 days for females and at 98–137 days for CV copepodids, depending on what indispensable minimum lipid content was assumed. In any case, the estimated times could not meet the necessary requirements for a starvation period of >6 months until the next phytoplankton bloom in the following spring. The ecological implications of these results are discussed with respect to the life cycle and eco-physiological adaptations of C. hyperboreus to its high-Arctic habitat.     

Mode choice model for vulnerable motorcyclists in Malaysia

OBJECTIVE: In developing countries, motorcycle use has grown in popularity in the past decades. Commensurate with this growth is the increase in death and casualties among motorcyclists in these countries. One of the strategic programs to minimize this problem is to reduce motorcyclists exposure by shifting them into safer modes of transport. This study aims to explore the differences in the characteristics of bus and motorcycle users. It identifies the factors contributing to their choice of transport mode and estimates the probability that motorcyclists might change their travel mode to a safer alternative; namely, bus travel. METHODS: In this article, a survey of 535 motorcycle and bus users was conducted in seven districts of Selangor state, Malaysia. A binary logit model was developed for the two alternative modes, bus and motorcycle. RESULTS: It was found that travel time, travel cost, gender, age, and income level are significant in influencing motorcyclists' mode choice behavior. The probability of motorcycle riders shifting to public transport was also examined based on a scenario of a reduction in bus travel time and travel cost. CONCLUSIONS: Reduction of total travel time for the bus mode emerges as the most important element in a program aimed at attracting motorcyclists towards public transport and away from the motorcycle mode.     

Emotional social support and job burnout among high‐school teachers: is it all due to dispositional affectivity?

The authors investigated whether the relationship between the contents of emotional social support and job burnout among high‐school teachers is spurious because of the role of dispositional positive and negative affectivity. A national sample of 339 teachers was surveyed via a web‐based procedure. Hierarchical regression analyses did not support spuriousness; emotional social support was uniquely predictive of three dimensions of burnout controlling for affectivity. As positive emotional social support increased, emotional exhaustion and cynicism decreased, and professional efficacy increased. As negative emotional social support increased, emotional exhaustion and cynicism also increased. Commonality analyses based on the present data and data reported by K. L. Zellars and P. L. Perrewé (2001; Journal of Applied Psychology, 86, 459–467) provided additional support for the unique role of emotional social support on burnout, but these analyses suggest a greater role of affectivity than emotional social support. These findings have implications for research on burnout as well as the prevention of burnout among teachers. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the response of 500 gal propane tanks to a 25% engulfing fire

This paper presents detailed data on the thermal response of two 500 gal ASME code propane tanks that were 25% engulfed in a hydrocarbon fire. These tests were done as part of an overall test programme to study thermal protection systems for propane-filled railway tank-cars.

The fire was generated using an array of 25 liquid propane-fuelled burners. This provided a luminous fire that engulfed 25% of the tank surface on one side. The intent of these tests was to model a severe partially engulfing fire situation.

The paper presents data on the tank wall and lading temperatures and tank internal pressure. In the first test the wind reduced the fire heating and resulted in a late failure of the tank at 46 min. This tank failed catastrophically with a powerful boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion (BLEVE). In the other test, the fire heating was very severe and steady and this tank failed very quickly in 8 min as a finite rupture with massive two-phase jet release. The reasons for these different outcomes are discussed. The different failures provide a range of realistic outcomes for the subject tank and fire condition.     

The application of the psychological contract to workplace safety

INTRODUCTION: Psychological contracts of safety are conceptualized as the beliefs of individuals about reciprocal safety obligations inferred from implicit or explicit promises. Although the literature on psychological contracts is growing, the existence of psychological contracts in relation to safety has not been established. The research sought to identify psychological contracts in the conversations of employees about safety, by demonstrating reciprocity in relation to employer and employee safety obligations. The identified safety obligations were used to develop a measure of psychological contracts of safety. METHOD: The participants were 131 employees attending safety training sessions in retail and manufacturing organizations. Non-participant observation was used to collect the data during safety training sessions. Content analysis was used to analyze the data. Categories for coding were established through identification of language markers that demonstrated contingencies or other implied obligations. RESULTS: Direct evidence of reciprocity between employer safety obligations and employee safety obligations was found in statements from the participants demonstrating psychological contracts. A comprehensive list of perceived employer and employee safety obligations was compiled and developed into a measure of psychological contracts of safety. A small sample of 33 safety personnel was used to validate the safety obligations. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Implications of these findings for safety and psychological contract research are discussed.     

On the thermal rupture of 1.9 m propane pressure vessels with defects in their thermal protection system

This paper describes the results from a series of fire tests that were carried out to measure the effect of defects in thermal protection systems on fire engulfed propane pressure vessels.

In North America thermal protection is used to protect dangerous goods rail tank-cars from accidental fire impingement. They are designed so that a tank-car will not rupture for 100 min in a defined engulfing fire, or 30 min in a defined torching fire. One common system includes a 13 mm blanket of high-temperature ceramic fibre thermal insulation covered with a 3 mm steel jacket. Recent inspections have shown that some tanks have significant defects in these thermal protection systems. This work was done to establish what levels of defect are acceptable from a safety standpoint.

The tests were conducted using 1890 l (500 US gallon) ASME code propane pressure vessels (commonly called tanks in the propane industry). The defects tested covered 8% and 15% of the tank surface. The tanks were 25% engulfed in a fire that simulated a hydrocarbon pool fire with an effective blackbody temperature of 870 °C.

The fire testing showed that even relatively small defects can result in tank rupture if the defect area is engulfed in a severe fire, and the defect area is not wetted by liquid from the inside. A wall failure prediction technique based on uniaxial high-temperature stress rupture test data has been developed and agrees well with the observed failure times.     

Defending the Wrist Deviation Test for Carpal Tunnel Syndrome Screening: A Comparison of Vibration Thresholds and Distal Motor Latency

This research used distal motor latency (DML) and vibration thresholds (VT) to evaluate 84 hand activity and wrist deviation combinations to determine the best association with carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS). Female volunteers, 2 healthy and 2 CTS diagnosed, were age matched and operated a keyboard for 4 hrs a day. Room temperature was 28°C(±2). Beginning DML and VT were taken with a relaxed neutral posture hand. The wrist was deviated in a randomly selected combination, and determinations were taken at 5-min intervals. The trial ended at 20 min or when discomfort was felt. The CTS conditions were discriminated by pain four times, DML once, and VT 14 times. Vibrometry was the most consistent CTS discriminator. The best VT results for wrist positions were obtained with wrist extension and extended extension, whereas the unclenched, clenched, and loaded power grip activities proved to be the most consistent hand activities.     

Ergonomic Aspects of a Virtual Environment

A virtual environment is an interactive graphic system mediated through computer technology that allows a certain level of reality or a sense of presence to access virtual information. To create reality in a virtual environment, ergonomics issues are explored in this paper, aiming to develop the design of presentation formats with related information, that is possible to attain and to maintain user-friendly application.     

An Evaluation of the NIOSH Lifting Equation: A Psychophysical and Biomechanical Investigation

Using the results of psychophysical and biomechanical experiments, NIOSH (National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health) Recommended Weight Limit (RWL), the Lifting Index (LI), the form of the asymmetry multiplier, and the criterion for compression force were investigated. Analysis of the results indicated a significant difference between the NIOSH RWL and the reported Maximum Acceptable Weight of Lift (MAWL). Contrary to the NIOSH lifting equation, the form of the asymmetry multiplier was found to be non-linear. The overall average of peak compression force on the L5/S1 was 3685 N. Fifty-eight percent of all compression forces reported in the biomechanical experiment were found to exceed the suggested 3400 N set by NIOSH guidelines. These results support previous research findings on the validity of NIOSH guidelines.