Effects of Tourists on Behavior and Demography of Olympic Marmots

Abstract:  If changes in animal behavior resulting from direct human disturbance negatively affect the persistence of a given species or population, then these behavioral changes must necessarily lead to reduced demographic performance. We tested for the effects of human disturbance on Olympic marmots ( Marmota olympus ), a large ground-dwelling squirrel that has disappeared from several areas where recreation levels are high. We assessed the degree to which antipredator and foraging behavior and demographic rates (survival and reproduction) differed between sites with high recreation levels (high use) and those with little or no recreation (low use). Compared with the marmots at low-use sites, marmots at high-use sites displayed significantly reduced responses to human approach, which could be construed as successful accommodation of disturbance or as a decrease in predator awareness. The marmots at high-use sites also looked up more often while foraging, which suggests an increased wariness. Marmots at both types of sites had comparable reproductive and survival rates and were in similar body condition. Until now, the supposition that marmots can adjust their behavior to avoid negative demographic consequences when confronted with heavy tourism has been based on potentially ambiguous behavioral data. Our results support this hypothesis in the case of Olympic marmots and demonstrate the importance of considering demographic data when evaluating the impacts of recreation on animal populations.     

Dose-response curve modeling of excess mortality caused by two forms of stress

A method is presented for modeling the effect of two stresses on mortality. The model assumes a multiplicative simple two-parameter dose-response curve relationship between mortality and the two factors as well as for the effect of combining the two factors. The dose-response curve is modified in order to model survival probabilities. It is shown that the model adequately describes mortality data of Folsomia candida (Collembola) in a two-stress factor design.     

Sensitivity and Vulnerability in Marine Environments: an Approach to Identifying Vulnerable Marine Areas

Abstract:  Marine environments have suffered from a lack of quantitative methods for delineating areas that are sensitive or vulnerable to particular stresses, natural and anthropogenic. We define sensitivity as the degree to which marine features respond to stresses, which are deviations of environmental conditions beyond the expected range. Vulnerability can then be defined as the probability that a feature will be exposed to a stress to which it is sensitive. Using these definitions, we provide a quantitative methodology for identifying vulnerable marine areas based on valued ecological features, defined as biological or physical features, processes, or structures deemed by humans to have environmental, social, cultural, or economic significance. The vulnerability of the valued ecological features is a function of their sensitivity to particular stresses and their vulnerability to those stresses. We used the methodology to demonstrate how vulnerable marine areas for two groups of endangered whale species (inshore and offshore) could be identified with a predictive habitat model and acoustic stress surfaces. Acoustic stress surfaces were produced for ferry traffic, commercial shipping traffic, potential offshore oil production, and small-boat traffic. The vulnerabilities of the two whale groups to the four stressors considered in this example were relatively similar; however, inshore species were more sensitive to on-shelf, coastal activities such as offshore hydrocarbon production, ferry traffic, and small-boat traffic. Our approach demonstrates how valued features can be associated with stresses and the likelihood of encountering these stresses (vulnerability) in order to identify geographic areas for management and conservation purposes. The method can be applied to any combination of valued ecological features and stressors.     

The Consistency of Extinction Risk Classification Protocols

Abstract:  Systematic protocols that use decision rules or scores are seen to improve consistency and transparency in classifying the conservation status of species. When applying these protocols, assessors are typically required to decide on estimates for attributes that are inherently uncertain. Input data and resulting classifications are usually treated as though they are exact and hence without operator error. We investigated the impact of data interpretation on the consistency of protocols of extinction risk classifications and diagnosed causes of discrepancies when they occurred. We tested three widely used systematic classification protocols employed by the World Conservation Union, NatureServe, and the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission. We provided 18 assessors with identical information for 13 different species to infer estimates for each of the required parameters for the three protocols. The threat classification of several of the species varied from low risk to high risk, depending on who did the assessment. This occurred across the three protocols investigated. Assessors tended to agree on their placement of species in the highest (50–70%) and lowest risk categories (20–40%), but there was poor agreement on which species should be placed in the intermediate categories. Furthermore, the correspondence between the three classification methods was unpredictable, with large variation among assessors. These results highlight the importance of peer review and consensus among multiple assessors in species classifications and the need to be cautious with assessments carried out by a single assessor. Greater consistency among assessors requires wide use of training manuals and formal methods for estimating parameters that allow uncertainties to be represented, carried through chains of calculations, and reported transparently.     

Testing Hypotheses for the Success of Different Conservation Strategies

Abstract:  Evaluations of the success of different conservation strategies are still in their infancy. We used four different measures of project outcomes—ecological, economic, attitudinal, and behavioral—to test hypotheses derived from the assumptions that underlie contemporary conservation solutions. Our hypotheses concerned the effects of natural resource utilization, market integration, decentralization, and community homogeneity on project success. We reviewed the conservation and development literature and used a specific protocol to extract and code the information in a sample of papers. Although our results are by no means conclusive and suffer from the paucity of high-quality data and independent monitoring (80% of the original sample of 124 projects provided inadequate information for use in this study), they show that permitted use of natural resources, market access, and greater community involvement in the conservation project are all important factors for a successful outcome. Without better monitoring schemes in place, it is still impossible to provide a systematic evaluation of how different strategies are best suited to different conservation challenges.     

Phylogeography and Limited Genetic Connectivity in the Endangered Boring Giant Clam across the Coral Triangle

Abstract: The Coral Triangle is the global center of marine biodiversity; however, its coral reefs are critically threatened. Because of the bipartite life history of many marine species with sedentary adults and dispersive pelagic larvae, designing effective marine protected areas requires an understanding of patterns of larval dispersal and connectivity among geographically discrete populations. We used mtDNA sequence data to examine patterns of genetic connectivity in the boring giant clam (Tridacna crocea) in an effort to guide conservation efforts within the Coral Triangle. We collected an approximately 485 base pair fragment of mtDNA cytochrome c oxidase 1 (CO1) from 414 individuals at 26 sites across Indonesia. Genetic structure was strong between regions (φ_ST=0.549, p < 0.00001) with 3 strongly supported clades: one restricted to western Sumatra, another distributed across central Indonesia, and a third limited to eastern Indonesia and Papua. Even within the single largest clade, small but significant genetic structure was documented (φ_ST=0.069, p < 0.00001), which indicates limited gene flow within and among phylogeographic regions. Significant patterns of isolation by distance indicated an average dispersal distance of only 25–50 km, which is far below dispersal predictions of 406–708 km derived from estimates of passive dispersal over 10 days via surface currents. The strong regional genetic structure we found indicates potent limits to genetic and demographic connectivity for this species throughout the Coral Triangle and provides a regional context for conservation planning. The recovery of 3 distinct evolutionarily significant units within a well‐studied taxonomic group suggests that biodiversity in this region may be significantly underestimated and that Tridacna taxa may be more endangered than currently recognized.     

Understanding Recent Climate Change

Abstract:  The Earth's atmosphere has a natural greenhouse effect, without which the global mean surface temperature would be about 33 °C lower and life would not be possible. Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases in trace amounts. This has enhanced the greenhouse effect, resulting in surface warming. Were it not for the partly offsetting effects of increased aerosol concentrations, the increase in global mean surface temperature over the past 100 years would be larger than observed. Continued surface warming through the 21st century is inevitable and will likely have widespread ecological impacts. The magnitude and rate of warming for the global average will be largely dictated by the strength and direction of climate feedbacks, thermal inertia of the oceans, the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, and aerosol concentrations. Because of regional expressions of climate feedbacks, changes in atmospheric circulation, and a suite of other factors, the magnitude and rate of warming and changes in other key climate elements, such as precipitation, will not be uniform across the planet. For example, due to loss of its floating sea-ice cover, the Arctic will warm the most .     

Assessing Multiregion Avian Benefits from Strategically Targeted Agricultural Buffers

Mounting evidence of wildlife population gains from targeted conservation practices has prompted the need to develop and evaluate practices that are integrated into production agriculture systems and targeted toward specific habitat objectives. However, effectiveness of targeted conservation actions across broader landscapes is poorly understood. We evaluated multiregion, multispecies avian densities on row‐crop fields with native grass field margins (i.e., buffers) as part of the first U.S. agricultural conservation practice designed to support habitat and population recovery objectives of a national wildlife conservation initiative. We coordinated breeding season point transect surveys for 6 grassland bird species on 1151 row‐crop fields with and without native grass buffers (9–37 m) in 14 U.S. states (10 ecoregions) from 2006 to 2011. In most regions, breeding season densities of 5 of 6 targeted bird species were greater in the 500‐m surrounding survey points centered on fields with native grass buffers than in landscapes without buffers. Relative effect sizes were greatest for Northern Bobwhite (Colinus virginianus), Dickcissel (Spiza americana), and Field Sparrow (Spizella pusilla) in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley and Eastern Tallgrass Prairie regions. Other species (e.g., Eastern Meadowlark [Sturnella magna], Grasshopper Sparrow [Ammodramus savannarum]) exhibited inconsistent relative effect sizes. Bird densities on fields with and without buffers were greatest in the Central Mixed‐grass Prairie region. Our results suggest that strategic use of conservation buffers in regions with the greatest potential for relative density increases in target species will elicit greater range‐wide population response than diffuse, uninformed, and broadly distributed implementation of buffers. We recommend integrating multiple conservation practices in broader agricultural landscapes to maximize conservation effectiveness for a larger suite of species. Evaluación de los Beneficios de la Mutliregionalidad de Aves a Partir de Amortiguadores Agriculturales Estratégicamente Señalados     

Behavioral Factors as Predictors of Motor Vehicle Crashes in Young Drivers

Gains in reducing mortality and morbidity from motor vehicle crashes can be achieved by understanding the behavioral factors that contribute to the elevated risk of motor vehicle-related injury and death. This study investigates the incidence, along with the effect of driver and behavioral factors, on the likelihood of motor vehicle crashes. Seventeen year old newly licensed drivers (n = 1277) in Perth, Western Australia, were recruited and followed over the first 12 months of driving. Using Cox proportional hazard analysis, driver and behavioral factors were assessed to determine whether they predicted the likelihood of a crash in the first 12 months of driving. The crash incidence rate was higher for males (1R = 4.6/10,000 driving days) than females (IR = 3.9/10,000 driving days). Multivariate analysis indicated that drivers who reported to have driven daily prior to obtaining their learners permit (L-plates) were at an increased risk of motor vehicle crash. A twofold increase in motor vehicle crash was apparent among drivers considered to be confident-adventurous drivers compared to low to moderate levels of driver confidence-adventurousness (HR = 2.04, 95% CI = 1.29-3.21). The research indicates that a driver's perception of their confidence and adventurousness in the road environment plays a part in the causal pathway leading to a motor vehicle crash. This research points to the need for preventive strategies that focus not only on knowledge and skill acquisition, but also the driver's perception in preparing young people for our roads.