The Interplay between Climate Variability and Density Dependence in the Population Viability of Chinook Salmon

Abstract:  The viability of populations is influenced by driving forces such as density dependence and climate variability, but most population viability analyses (PVAs) ignore these factors because of data limitations. Additionally, simplified PVAs produce limited measures of population viability such as annual population growth rate (λ) or extinction risk. Here we developed a "mechanistic" PVA of threatened Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in which, based on 40 years of detailed data, we related freshwater recruitment of juveniles to density of spawners, and third-year survival in the ocean to monthly indices of broad-scale ocean and climate conditions. Including climate variability in the model produced important effects: estimated population viability was very sensitive to assumptions of future climate conditions and the autocorrelation contained in the climate signal increased mean population abundance while increasing probability of quasi extinction. Because of the presence of density dependence in the model, however, we could not distinguish among alternative climate scenarios through mean λ values, emphasizing the importance of considering multiple measures to elucidate population viability. Our sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the importance of particular parameters varied across models and depended on which viability measure was the response variable. The density-dependent parameter associated with freshwater recruitment was consistently the most important, regardless of viability measure, suggesting that increasing juvenile carrying capacity is important for recovery.     

A Freshwater Classification Approach for Biodiversity Conservation Planning

Abstract:  Freshwater biodiversity is highly endangered and faces increasing threats worldwide. To be complete, regional plans that identify critical areas for conservation must capture representative components of freshwater biodiversity as well as rare and endangered species. We present a spatially hierarchical approach to classify freshwater systems to create a coarse filter to capture representative freshwater biodiversity in regional conservation plans. The classification framework has four levels that we described using abiotic factors within a zoogeographic context and mapped in a geographic information system. Methods to classify and map units are flexible and can be automated where high-quality spatial data exist, or can be manually developed where such data are not available. Products include a spatially comprehensive inventory of mapped and classified units that can be used remotely to characterize regional patterns of aquatic ecosystems. We provide examples of classification procedures in data-rich and data-poor regions from the Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwest of North America and the upper Paraguay River in central South America. The approach, which has been applied in North, Central, and South America, provides a relatively rapid and pragmatic way to account for representative freshwater biodiversity at scales appropriate to regional assessments.     

Correlations among Extinction Risks Assessed by Different Systems of Threatened Species Categorization

Abstract:  Many different systems are used to assess levels of threat faced by species. Prominent ones are those used by the World Conservation Union, NatureServe, and the Florida Game and Freshwater Fish Commission (now the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission). These systems assign taxa a threat ranking by assessing their demographic and ecological characteristics. These threat rankings support the legislative protection of species and guide the placement of conservation programs in order of priority. It is not known, however, whether these assessment systems rank species in a similar order. To resolve this issue, we assessed 55 mainly vertebrate taxa with widely differing life histories under each of these systems and determined the rank correlations among them. Moderate, significant positive correlations were seen among the threat rankings provided by the three systems (correlations 0.58–0.69). Further, the threat rankings for taxa obtained using these systems were significantly correlated to their rankings based on predicted probability of extinction within 100 years as determined by population viability analysis (correlations 0.28–0.37). The different categorization systems, then, yield related but not identical threat rankings, and these rankings are associated with predicted extinction risk.     

Conservation Threat of Increasing Fire Frequencies in the Western Ghats, India

Abstract:  The acceleration of processes such as forest fragmentation and forest fires in landscapes under intense human pressures makes it imperative to quantify and understand the effects of these processes on the conservation of biodiversity in these landscapes. We combined information from remote-sensing imagery and ground maps of all fires in the Mudumalai Wildlife Sanctuary (MWLS) in the Western Ghats of India over 14 years (1989–2002). These spatial data on fire occurrence were integrated with maps of vegetation types found in the MWLS to examine fire conditions in each. We calculated the average fire-return interval for each of the vegetation types individually and for the MWLS as a whole. Using vegetation data from the larger Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve and the entire Western Ghats region, we conservatively estimated fire-frequency information for these larger regions. Because the MWLS does not contain tropical evergreen or montane forests, we were unable to estimate fire conditions in these forest types, which represent 31% of all Western Ghats vegetation cover. For the MWLS, all vegetation types had average fire-return intervals of <7 years, and the sanctuary as a whole had a fire-return interval of 3.3 years. Compared with a 13-year MWLS fire data set from 1909–1921, this represents a threefold increase in fire frequency over the last 80 years. We estimated average fire-return intervals of roughly 5 years for both the larger Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve and the entire Western Ghats region. Given other recent reports, the estimated fire frequencies for the Western Ghats forests outside protected reserves are conservative. We conclude that the current fire regime of the Western Ghats poses a severe and persistent conservation threat to forests both within and outside protected reserves.     

Two‐Stage Recovery of Amphibian Assemblages Following Selective Logging of Tropical Forests

There is a lack of quantitative information on the effectiveness of selective‐logging practices in ameliorating effects of logging on faunal communities. We conducted a large‐scale replicated field study in 3 selectively logged moist semideciduous forests in West Africa at varying times after timber extraction to assess post logging effects on amphibian assemblages. Specifically, we assessed whether the diversity, abundance, and assemblage composition of amphibians changed over time for forest‐dependent species and those tolerant of forest disturbance. In 2009, we sampled amphibians in 3 forests (total of 48 study plots, each 2 ha) in southwestern Ghana. In each forest, we established plots in undisturbed forest, recently logged forest, and forest logged 10 and 20 years previously. Logging intensity was constant across sites with 3 trees/ha removed. Recently logged forests supported substantially more species than unlogged forests. This was due to an influx of disturbance‐tolerant species after logging. Simultaneously Simpson's index decreased, with increased in dominance of a few species. As time since logging increased richness of disturbance‐tolerant species decreased until 10 years after logging when their composition was indistinguishable from unlogged forests. Simpson's index increased with time since logging and was indistinguishable from unlogged forest 20 years after logging. Forest specialists decreased after logging and recovered slowly. However, after 20 years amphibian assemblages had returned to a state indistinguishable from that of undisturbed forest in both abundance and composition. These results demonstrate that even with low‐intensity logging (≤3 trees/ha) a minimum 20‐year rotation of logging is required for effective conservation of amphibian assemblages in moist semideciduous forests. Furthermore, remnant patches of intact forests retained in the landscape and the presence of permanent brooks may aid in the effective recovery of amphibian assemblages. Recuperación de Ensambles de Anfibios en Dos Etapas Después de la Tala Selectiva de Bosques Tropicales     

Taxonomic Exaggeration and Its Effects on Orchid Conservation

Abstract:  Orchids are the largest family of flowering plants, encompassing several times as many species as birds or mammals. Because of their diversity, charisma, and threats from overcollection and habitat loss, they are a key group in conservation. Nevertheless, preservation of this group is plagued by taxonomic problems, particularly in Europe, where new taxa are actively being described. We used a checklist of orchids to compare the taxonomic treatment of this family between Europe and neighboring areas to search for geographical patterns. Numbers of invalid, infraspecific, and hybrid names are significantly higher in Europe than in surrounding areas. Recognition of numerous and poorly circumscribed orchid taxa is a serious obstacle to their conservation because rare, poorly defined species may be prioritized for conservation over taxonomically "good" species. This phenomenon may be the result of the popularity of orchids in Europe. We believe that more taxonomic effort should be made in other areas of the world (e.g., the tropics) and on less charismatic groups.     

Regional Ontogeny of New England Salt Marsh Die‐Off

Coastal areas are among the world's most productive and highly affected ecosystems. Centuries of human activity on coastlines have led to overexploitation of marine predators, which in turn has led to cascading ecosystem‐level effects. Human effects and approaches to mediating them, however, differ regionally due to gradients in biotic and abiotic factors. Salt marsh die‐off on Cape Cod, Massachusetts (U.S.A.), triggered by a recreational‐fishing‐induced trophic cascade that has released herbivorous crabs from predator control, has been ongoing since 1976. Similar salt marsh die‐offs have been reported in Long Island Sound and Narragansett Bay (U.S.A.), but the driving mechanism of these die‐offs has not been examined. We used field experiments to assess trophic interactions and historical reconstructions of 24 New England marshes to test the hypotheses that recreational fishing and predator depletion are a regional trigger of salt marsh die‐off in New England and that die‐offs in Long Island Sound and Narragansett Bay are more recent than those on Cape Cod. Predator depletion was the general trigger of marsh die‐off and explained differences in herbivorous crab abundance and the severity of die‐off across regions. Die‐offs in Long Island Sound and Narragansett Bay are following a trajectory similar to die‐off on Cape Cod, but are approximately 20 years behind those on Cape Cod. As a result, die‐off currently affects 31.2% (SE 2.2) of low‐marsh areas in Long Island Sound and Narragansett Bay, less than half the severity of die‐off on Cape Cod. Our results contribute to the growing evidence that recreational fishing is an increasing threat to coastal ecosystems and that studying the effects of human activity at regional scales can provide insight into local effects and aid in early detection and potential remediation. Ontogenia Regional de un Incremento en la Mortandad en una Marisma Salada de Nueva Inglaterra     

Building on IUCN Regional Red Lists to Produce Lists of Species of Conservation Priority: a Model with Irish Bees

Abstract:  A World Conservation Union (IUCN) regional red list is an objective assessment of regional extinction risk and is not the same as a list of conservation priority species. Recent research reveals the widespread, but incorrect, assumption that IUCN Red List categories represent a hierarchical list of priorities for conservation action. We developed a simple eight-step priority-setting process and applied it to the conservation of bees in Ireland. Our model is based on the national red list but also considers the global significance of the national population; the conservation status at global, continental, and regional levels; key biological, economic, and societal factors; and is compatible with existing conservation agreements and legislation. Throughout Ireland, almost one-third of the bee fauna is threatened (30 of 100 species), but our methodology resulted in a reduced list of only 17 priority species. We did not use the priority species list to broadly categorize species to the conservation action required; instead, we indicated the individual action required for all threatened, near-threatened, and data-deficient species on the national red list based on the IUCN's conservation-actions template file. Priority species lists will strongly influence prioritization of conservation actions at national levels, but action should not be exclusive to listed species. In addition, all species on this list will not necessarily require immediate action. Our method is transparent, reproducible, and readily applicable to other taxa and regions.     

Shoreline Development Drives Invasion of Phragmites australis and the Loss of Plant Diversity on New England Salt Marshes

Abstract:  The reed Phragmites australis Cav. is aggressively invading salt marshes along the Atlantic Coast of North America. We examined the interactive role of habitat alteration (i.e., shoreline development) in driving this invasion and its consequences for plant richness in New England salt marshes. We surveyed 22 salt marshes in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, and quantified shoreline development, Phragmites cover, soil salinity, and nitrogen availability. Shoreline development, operationally defined as removal of the woody vegetation bordering marshes, explained >90% of intermarsh variation in Phragmites cover. Shoreline development was also significantly correlated with reduced soil salinities and increased nitrogen availability, suggesting that removing woody vegetation bordering marshes increases nitrogen availability and decreases soil salinities, thus facilitating Phragmites invasion. Soil salinity (64%) and nitrogen availability (56%) alone explained a large proportion of variation in Phragmites cover, but together they explained 80% of the variation in Phragmites invasion success. Both univariate and aggregate (multidimensional scaling) analyses of plant community composition revealed that Phragmites dominance in developed salt marshes resulted in an almost three-fold decrease in plant species richness. Our findings illustrate the importance of maintaining integrity of habitat borders in conserving natural communities and provide an example of the critical role that local conservation can play in preserving these systems. In addition, our findings provide ecologists and natural resource managers with a mechanistic understanding of how human habitat alteration in one vegetation community can interact with species introductions in adjacent communities (i.e., flow-on or adjacency effects) to hasten ecosystem degradation.