Minimizing the Cost of Keeping Options Open for Conservation in a Changing Climate

Policy documents advocate that managers should keep their options open while planning to protect coastal ecosystems from climate‐change impacts. However, the actual costs and benefits of maintaining flexibility remain largely unexplored, and alternative approaches for decision making under uncertainty may lead to better joint outcomes for conservation and other societal goals. For example, keeping options open for coastal ecosystems incurs opportunity costs for developers. We devised a decision framework that integrates these costs and benefits with probabilistic forecasts for the extent of sea‐level rise to find a balance between coastal ecosystem protection and moderate coastal development. Here, we suggest that instead of keeping their options open managers should incorporate uncertain sea‐level rise predictions into a decision‐making framework that evaluates the benefits and costs of conservation and development. In our example, based on plausible scenarios for sea‐level rise and assuming a risk‐neutral decision maker, we found that substantial development could be accommodated with negligible loss of environmental assets. Characterization of the Pareto efficiency of conservation and development outcomes provides valuable insight into the intensity of trade‐offs between development and conservation. However, additional work is required to improve understanding of the consequences of alternative spatial plans and the value judgments and risk preferences of decision makers and stakeholders. Minimizando el Costo de Mantener Opciones Abiertas para la Conservación en un Clima Cambiante     

Factors Determining the Choice of Hunting and Trading Bushmeat in the Kilombero Valley,Tanzania

Regulation of illegal bushmeat trade is a major conservation challenge in Africa. We investigated what factors are most likely to induce actors in the bushmeat trade to shift to an alternative occupation by conducting a choice experiment with 325 actors in the bushmeat trade in the Kilombero Valley, Tanzania. Specifically, we asked respondents to choose between hunting or trading bushmeat and alternative salary‐paying work, in a set of hypothetical scenarios where the attributes of these alternatives were varied and included measures of command and control, price of substitute meat, daily salary in the work option, and whether or not cows were donated to the respondent. We modeled the choice contingent on socioeconomic characteristics. The magnitude of fines and patrolling frequency had a significant but very low negative effect on the probability of choosing to engage in hunting or trading bushmeat compared with the salary of an alternative occupation. Donation of livestock and the price of substitute meats in the local market both affected the choice significantly in a negative and a positive direction, respectively. The wealthier a household was the more likely the respondent was to choose to continue hunting or trading bushmeat. On the margin, our results suggest that given current conditions in the Kilombero Valley on any given day 90% of the respondents would choose salary work at US$3.37/day over their activities in the bushmeat trade, all else equal. Factores que Determinan la Elección de Cazar y Vender Carne de Caza en el Valle Kilombero, Tanzania     

三峡水库春季营养盐和浮游植物空间分布及其影响机制

为研究三峡水库春季水体营养盐与浮游植物的空间分布状况,于2013年3月对三峡水库22条支流及干流的6个断面进行采样监测. 结果表明:来水、回水、河口和干流4类断面ρ(TN)平均值分别为1.69、1.84、2.01、1.51 mg/L;ρ(TP)平均值分别为0.115、0.191、0.179和0.181 mg/L;不同类型断面间ρ(TN)、ρ(TP)差异不显著;水体中N、P的主要形态分别为NO₃--N和PO₄3--P;N/P〔n(N)/n(P)〕从来水(110.8)至干流(18.9)逐渐降低. 三峡水库总体上为中营养状态,回水和河口区富营养化程度较高,富营养断面比例分别为45.4%和36.4%. 研究期间共检出浮游植物8门98属,其中以绿藻门、硅藻门和蓝藻门为主,分别检出42、26和17属;从组成上看,来水和干流断面以硅藻-绿藻为主,回水、河口断面以绿藻-硅藻为主. 浮游植物丰度由高到低依次为回水、河口、来水和干流断面. 调查期间,22条支流中有15条支流在不同位置发生水华,但主要集中在回水区;拟多甲藻水华为主要类型且集中在库区的下游支流,而库区中上游支流则以隐藻、衣藻、小球藻、小环藻等水华为主. 环境因子排序分析表明,在水华集中的回水-河口区域,影响浮游植物丰度分布的主要环境因子数明显少于其他区域,温度和ρ(DO)为该区域浮游植物丰度分布的主要影响因子,而ρ(TN)、ρ(TP)的影响不明显.      

Quantifying Preferences for the Natural World Using Monetary and Nonmonetary Assessments of Value

Given that funds for biodiversity conservation are limited, there is a need to understand people's preferences for its different components. To date, such preferences have largely been measured in monetary terms. However, how people value biodiversity may differ from economic theory, and there is little consensus over whether monetary metrics are always appropriate or the degree to which other methods offer alternative and complementary perspectives on value. We used a choice experiment to compare monetary amounts recreational visitors to urban green spaces were willing to pay for biodiversity enhancement (increases in species richness for birds, plants, and aquatic macroinvertebrates) with self‐reported psychological gains in well‐being derived from visiting the same sites. Willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) estimates were significant and positive, and respondents reported high gains in well‐being across 3 axes derived from environmental psychology theories (reflection, attachment, continuity with past). The 2 metrics were broadly congruent. Participants with above‐median self‐reported well‐being scores were willing to pay significantly higher amounts for enhancing species richness than those with below‐median scores, regardless of taxon. The socio‐economic and demographic background of participants played little role in determining either their well‐being or the probability of choosing a paying option within the choice experiment. Site‐level environmental characteristics were only somewhat related to WTP, but showed strong associations with self‐reported well‐being. Both approaches are likely to reflect a combination of the environmental properties of a site and unobserved individual preference heterogeneity for the natural world. Our results suggest that either metric will deliver mutually consistent results in an assessment of environmental preferences, although which approach is preferable depends on why one wishes to measure values for the natural world. Preferencias de Cuantificación para el Mundo Natural Usando Estudios de Valor Monetario y No Monetario.     

Hybridization in the Island Endemic, Catalina Mahogany

Abstract: Allozyme data, combined with traditional morphological and anatomical data, were used to evaluate the genetic status of the island endemic, Cercocarpus traskiae (Catalina mahogany). Comprising only seven adult plants and close to 70 seedlings, C. traskiae is confined to Wild Boar Gully on the southwest side of Santa Catalina Island in Los Angeles County, California Electrophoretic examination of 22 enzyme loci revealed that all but two of the seven adult C. traskiae trees were unique allozymically. Furthermore four of the seven C. traskiae individuals were morphologically and/or anatomically intermediate between "true" C. traskiae and the more abundant Cercocarpus species on Santa Catalina, C. betuloides var, blancheae . Further electrophoretic analyses revealed that two of these four individuals possessed an additive "hybrid" enzyme phenotype indicating that these individuals were hybrid. Twenty-five of the seedlings were also assayed but none of the seedlings displayed hybrid enzyme phenotypes.
Given the evidence for hybridization described herein, we make two suggestions to enhance the long-term preservation of C. traskiae . First, it may be desirable to eliminate the single C. betuloides var.: blancheae individual in Wild Boar Gully. Second, we suggest that established cuttings of true C. traskiae be transplanted to areas on Santa Catalina where the probability of hybridization is minimal Our data further demonstrate that accurate taxonomic identification and an understanding of population genetic structure are necessary for the enlightened management of small relict populations or island endemics.     

Designing Cost-Effective Payments for Conservation Measures to Generate Spatiotemporal Habitat Heterogeneity

Abstract:  Many endangered species depend on certain types of agricultural or other forms of human land use. To conserve such species, schemes are set up in which land users receive payments for voluntarily managing their land in a biodiversity-enhancing manner. We developed a model-based framework for designing cost-effective payment schemes that generate spatiotemporal habitat heterogeneity to maximize the survival of multiple species under budget constraints. The framework integrates ecological and economic knowledge and consists of the derivation of an ecological benefit function and a budget function that are then combined to determine the cost-effective degree of spatiotemporal habitat heterogeneity. The ecological benefit function considers the timing of conservation measures, the induced habitat dynamics, and different degrees of substitutability among species. The budget function considers that the conservation agency may lack information about land users' individual conservation costs and personal attitudes and that land users can choose among different conservation measures. We applied the framework to a case study of grassland management, where the survival of three endangered species protected by the EU Habitats Directive depends on different types of land use. The lack of information available to the agency and the choice options of land users reduced the amount of conservation that can be financed with a given budget. Neglecting such findings may lead to an overestimation of the benefits of conservation programs.     

Determining When to Change Course in Management Actions

Time is of the essence in conservation biology. To secure the persistence of a species, we need to understand how to balance time spent among different management actions. A new and simple method to test the efficacy of a range of conservation actions is required. Thus, we devised a general theoretical framework to help determine whether to test a new action and when to cease a trial and revert to an existing action if the new action did not perform well. The framework involves constructing a general population model under the different management actions and specifying a management objective. By maximizing the management objective, we could generate an analytical solution that identifies the optimal timing of when to change management action. We applied the analytical solution to the case of the Christmas Island pipistrelle bat (Pipistrelle murrayi), a species for which captive breeding might have prevented its extinction. For this case, we used our model to determine whether to start a captive breeding program and when to stop a captive breeding program and revert to managing the species in the wild, given that the management goal is to maximize the chance of reaching a target wild population size. For the pipistrelle bat, captive breeding was to start immediately and it was desirable to place the species in captivity for the entire management period. The optimal time to revert to managing the species in the wild was driven by several key parameters, including the management goal, management time frame, and the growth rates of the population under different management actions. Knowing when to change management actions can help conservation managers’ act in a timely fashion to avoid species extinction. Determinar Cuándo Cambiar el Rumbo en las Acciones de Manejo     

Meta‐Analysis of Attitudes toward Damage‐Causing Mammalian Wildlife

Many populations of threatened mammals persist outside formally protected areas, and their survival depends on the willingness of communities to coexist with them. An understanding of the attitudes, and specifically the tolerance, of individuals and communities and the factors that determine these is therefore fundamental to designing strategies to alleviate human‐wildlife conflict. We conducted a meta‐analysis to identify factors that affected attitudes toward 4 groups of terrestrial mammals. Elephants (65%) elicited the most positive attitudes, followed by primates (55%), ungulates (53%), and carnivores (44%). Urban residents presented the most positive attitudes (80%), followed by commercial farmers (51%) and communal farmers (26%). A tolerance to damage index showed that human tolerance of ungulates and primates was proportional to the probability of experiencing damage while elephants elicited tolerance levels higher than anticipated and carnivores elicited tolerance levels lower than anticipated. Contrary to conventional wisdom, experiencing damage was not always the dominant factor determining attitudes. Communal farmers had a lower probability of being positive toward carnivores irrespective of probability of experiencing damage, while commercial farmers and urban residents were more likely to be positive toward carnivores irrespective of damage. Urban residents were more likely to be positive toward ungulates, elephants, and primates when probability of damage was low, but not when it was high. Commercial and communal farmers had a higher probability of being positive toward ungulates, primates, and elephants irrespective of probability of experiencing damage. Taxonomic bias may therefore be important. Identifying the distinct factors explaining these attitudes and the specific contexts in which they operate, inclusive of the species causing damage, will be essential for prioritizing conservation investments. Meta‐Análisis de las Posturas hacia la Mamíferos Silvestres Causantes de Daños