Epidemiologic Analysis of Factors Associated with Local Disappearances of Native Ranid Frogs in Arizona

Abstract:  We examined factors that may independently or synergistically contribute to amphibian population declines. We used epidemiologic case–control methodology to sample and analyze a large database developed and maintained by the Arizona Game and Fish Department that describes historical and currently known ranid frog localities in Arizona, U.S.A. Sites with historical documentation of target ranid species ( n = 324) were evaluated to identify locations where frogs had disappeared during the study period (case sites) and locations where frog populations persisted (control sites). Between 1986 and 2003, 117 (36%) of the 324 sites became case sites, of which 105 were used in the analyses. An equal number of control sites were sampled to control for the effects of time. Risk factors, or predictor variables, were defined from environmental data summarized during site surveys and geographic information system data layers. We evaluated risk factors with univariate and multifactorial logistic-regression analyses to derive odds ratios (OR). Odds for local population disappearance were significantly related to 4 factors in the multifactorial model. Disappearance of frog populations increased with increasing elevation (OR = 2.7 for every 500 m, p < 0.01). Sites where disappearances occurred were 4.3 times more likely to have other nearby sites that also experienced disappearances (OR = 4.3, p < 0.01), whereas the odds of disappearance were 6.7 times less (OR = 0.15, p < 0.01) when there was a source population nearby. Sites with disappearances were 2.6 times more likely to have introduced crayfish than were control sites (OR = 2.6, p = 0.04). The identification of factors associated with frog disappearances increases understanding of declines occurring in natural populations and aids in conservation efforts to reestablish and protect native ranids by identifying and prioritizing implicated threats.     

Establishing IUCN Red List Criteria for Threatened Ecosystems

Abstract: The potential for conservation of individual species has been greatly advanced by the International Union for Conservation of Nature's (IUCN) development of objective, repeatable, and transparent criteria for assessing extinction risk that explicitly separate risk assessment from priority setting. At the IV World Conservation Congress in 2008, the process began to develop and implement comparable global standards for ecosystems. A working group established by the IUCN has begun formulating a system of quantitative categories and criteria, analogous to those used for species, for assigning levels of threat to ecosystems at local, regional, and global levels. A final system will require definitions of ecosystems; quantification of ecosystem status; identification of the stages of degradation and loss of ecosystems; proxy measures of risk (criteria); classification thresholds for these criteria; and standardized methods for performing assessments. The system will need to reflect the degree and rate of change in an ecosystem's extent, composition, structure, and function, and have its conceptual roots in ecological theory and empirical research. On the basis of these requirements and the hypothesis that ecosystem risk is a function of the risk of its component species, we propose a set of four criteria: recent declines in distribution or ecological function, historical total loss in distribution or ecological function, small distribution combined with decline, or very small distribution. Most work has focused on terrestrial ecosystems, but comparable thresholds and criteria for freshwater and marine ecosystems are also needed. These are the first steps in an international consultation process that will lead to a unified proposal to be presented at the next World Conservation Congress in 2012.     

A Global Baseline for Spawning Aggregations of Reef Fishes

Abstract: Species that periodically and predictably congregate on land or in the sea can be extremely vulnerable to overexploitation. Many coral reef fishes form spawning aggregations that are increasingly the target of fishing. Although serious declines are well known for a few species, the extent of this behavior among fishes and the impacts of aggregation fishing are not appreciated widely. To profile aggregating species globally, establish a baseline for future work, and strengthen the case for protection, we (as members of the Society for the Conservation of Reef Fish Aggregations) developed a global database on the occurrence, history, and management of spawning aggregations. We complemented the database with information from interviews with over 300 fishers in Asia and the western Pacific. Sixty‐seven species, mainly commercial, in 9 families aggregate to spawn in the 29 countries or territories considered in the database. Ninety percent of aggregation records were from reef pass channels, promontories, and outer reef‐slope drop‐offs. Multispecies aggregation sites were common, and spawning seasons of most species typically lasted <3 months. The best‐documented species in the database, the Nassau grouper (Epinephelus striatus), has undergone substantial declines in aggregations throughout its range and is now considered threatened. Our findings have important conservation and management implications for aggregating species given that exploitation pressures on them are increasing, there is little effective management, and 79% of those aggregations sufficiently well documented were reported to be in decline. Nonetheless, a few success stories demonstrate the benefits of aggregation management. A major shift in perspective on spawning aggregations of reef fish, from being seen as opportunities for exploitation to acknowledging them as important life‐history phenomena in need of management, is urgently needed.     

Understanding the Diversity of Public Interests in Wildlife Conservation

Abstract:  North American state wildlife agencies are increasingly faced with the challenge of effectively representing a diverse public. With increasing social conflict over wildlife issues, the future of wildlife conservation hinges on preparedness of the profession to respond to this challenge. In the interest of finding ways to improve response, 19 agencies in the western U.S. joined forces to initiate an investigation that would provide a better understanding of the diversity of wildlife-related interests in the region. Specific objectives, accomplished through use of a mail survey administered in 2004, were to categorize people on the basis of their value orientations toward wildlife and explore how different groups were distributed across states and to examine differences on sociodemographic characteristics and attitudes toward wildlife-related topics among groups. The focus was on two orientations: domination (view of wildlife that prioritizes human well-being over wildlife and treats wildlife in utilitarian terms); and mutualism (view of wildlife as capable of relationships of trust with humans and defined by a desire for companionship with wildlife). Four types of people were identified on the basis of these orientations. Types differed in their geographic distribution and wildlife-related attitudes and behaviors, revealing how value orientations can form the foundation for conflict on wildlife issues. Our characterizations of stakeholder groups offer a framework that can be applied over time and across geographic scales to improve conservation planning efforts and inform broader thinking about the social aspects of wildlife conservation .     

The Botanist Effect Revisited: Plant Species Richness, County Area, and Human Population Size in the United States

Abstract:  The "botanist effect" is thought to be the reason for higher plant species richness in areas where botanists are disproportionately present as an artefactual consequence of a more thorough sampling. We examined whether this was the case for U.S. counties. We collated the number of species of vascular plants, human population size, and the area of U.S. counties. Controlling for spatial autocorrelation and county area, plant species richness increased with human population size and density in counties with and without universities and/or botanical gardens, with no significant differences in the relation between the two subsets. This is consistent with previous findings and further evidence of a broad-scale positive correlation between species richness and human population presence, which has important consequences for the experience of nature by inhabitants of densely populated regions. Combined with the many reports of a negative correlation between the two variables at a local scale, the positive relation between plant species richness in U.S. counties and human population presence stresses the need for the conservation of seminatural areas in urbanized ecosystems and for the containment of urban and suburban sprawl.     

An Adaptive‐Management Framework for Optimal Control of Hiking Near Golden Eagle Nests in Denali National Park

Abstract: Unintended effects of recreational activities in protected areas are of growing concern. We used an adaptive‐management framework to develop guidelines for optimally managing hiking activities to maintain desired levels of territory occupancy and reproductive success of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in Denali National Park (Alaska, U.S.A.). The management decision was to restrict human access (hikers) to particular nesting territories to reduce disturbance. The management objective was to minimize restrictions on hikers while maintaining reproductive performance of eagles above some specified level. We based our decision analysis on predictive models of site occupancy of eagles developed using a combination of expert opinion and data collected from 93 eagle territories over 20 years. The best predictive model showed that restricting human access to eagle territories had little effect on occupancy dynamics. However, when considering important sources of uncertainty in the models, including environmental stochasticity, imperfect detection of hares on which eagles prey, and model uncertainty, restricting access of territories to hikers improved eagle reproduction substantially. An adaptive management framework such as ours may help reduce uncertainty of the effects of hiking activities on Golden Eagles.