Choosing and Using Climate‐Change Scenarios for Ecological‐Impact Assessments and Conservation Decisions

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate‐change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate‐change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Selección y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Estudios de Impacto Ecológico y Decisiones de Conservación     

Identifying and Managing Threatened Invertebrates through Assessment of Coextinction Risk

Abstract: Invertebrates with specific host species may have a high probability of extinction when their hosts have a high probability of extinction. Some of these invertebrates are more likely to go extinct than their hosts, and under some circumstances, specific actions to conserve the host may be detrimental to the invertebrate. A critical constraint to identifying such invertebrates is uncertainty about their level of host specificity. We used two host‐breadth models that explicitly incorporated uncertainty in the host specificity of an invertebrate species. We devised a decision protocol to identify actions that may increase the probability of persistence of a given dependent species. The protocol included estimates from the host‐breadth models and decision nodes to identify cothreatened species. We applied the models and protocol to data on 1055 insects (186 species) associated with 2 threatened (as designated by the Australian Government) plant species and 19 plant species that are not threatened to determine whether any insect herbivores have the potential to become extinct if the plant becomes extinct. According to the host‐breadth models, 18 species of insect had high host specificity to the threatened plant species. From these 18 insects, the decision protocol highlighted 6 species that had a high probability of extinction if their hosts were to become extinct (3% of all insects examined). The models and decision protocol have added objectivity and rigor to the process of deciding which dependent invertebrates require conservation action, particularly when dealing with largely unknown and speciose faunas.     

Site‐Occupancy Distribution Modeling to Correct Population‐Trend Estimates Derived from Opportunistic Observations

Abstract: Species’ assessments must frequently be derived from opportunistic observations made by volunteers (i.e., citizen scientists). Interpretation of the resulting data to estimate population trends is plagued with problems, including teasing apart genuine population trends from variations in observation effort. We devised a way to correct for annual variation in effort when estimating trends in occupancy (species distribution) from faunal or floral databases of opportunistic observations. First, for all surveyed sites, detection histories (i.e., strings of detection–nondetection records) are generated. Within‐season replicate surveys provide information on the detectability of an occupied site. Detectability directly represents observation effort; hence, estimating detectablity means correcting for observation effort. Second, site‐occupancy models are applied directly to the detection‐history data set (i.e., without aggregation by site and year) to estimate detectability and species distribution (occupancy, i.e., the true proportion of sites where a species occurs). Site‐occupancy models also provide unbiased estimators of components of distributional change (i.e., colonization and extinction rates). We illustrate our method with data from a large citizen‐science project in Switzerland in which field ornithologists record opportunistic observations. We analyzed data collected on four species: the widespread Kingfisher (Alcedo atthis) and Sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus) and the scarce Rock Thrush (Monticola saxatilis) and Wallcreeper (Tichodroma muraria). Our method requires that all observed species are recorded. Detectability was <1 and varied over the years. Simulations suggested some robustness, but we advocate recording complete species lists (checklists), rather than recording individual records of single species. The representation of observation effort with its effect on detectability provides a solution to the problem of differences in effort encountered when extracting trend information from haphazard observations. We expect our method is widely applicable for global biodiversity monitoring and modeling of species distributions.     

Contribution of the Live-Vertebrate Trade toward Taxonomic Homogenization

Abstract:  The process of taxonomic homogenization occurs through two mechanisms, extinctions and introductions, and leads to a reduction of global biodiversity. We used available U.S. trade data as a proxy for global trade in live vertebrates to assess the contribution of trade to the process of taxonomic homogenization. Data included all available U.S. importation and exportation records, estimation of extinction risk, and reports of establishment outside the native range for species within six vertebrate groups. Based on Monte Carlo sampling, the number of species traded, established outside of the native range, and threatened with extinction was not randomly distributed among vertebrate families. Twenty-eight percent of vertebrate families that were traded preferentially were also established or threatened with extinction, an unusually high percentage compared with the 7% of families that were not traded preferentially but that became established or threatened with extinction. The importance of trade in homogenization of vertebrates suggests that additional efforts should be made to prevent introductions and extinctions through this medium.     

Cultural Erosion and Biodiversity: Canoe-Making Knowledge in Pohnpei, Micronesia

Abstract:  Erosion of traditional knowledge and practice is a serious and accelerating problem, but quantitative work on traditional knowledge loss and its importance to biodiversity conservation is lacking. We investigated traditional knowledge of canoe making, a skill heavily dependent on plant biodiversity, on Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia, through a survey of 180 island residents. Our results showed that there has been an intergenerational erosion of canoe-making skills. Given current trends, the present generation of Pohnpeians may be the last to retain any knowledge of this traditional craft. We also identified several correlates of knowledge loss—including Western educational level and occupation—that highlight potential avenues for skill conservation via governments, traditional leadership, and schools. These institutions could intervene to emphasize traditional knowledge, which would reinforce institutional contexts in which traditional knowledge and practice is valued. The heightened awareness of the value of biodiversity that is linked to traditional knowledge is key to biological conservation on Pohnpei and can help support local conservation programs.     

Practical Recommendations to Help Students Bridge the Research–Implementation Gap and Promote Conservation

Seasoned conservation researchers often struggle to bridge the research–implementation gap and promote the translation of their work into meaningful conservation actions. Graduate students face the same problems and must contend with obstacles such as limited opportunities for relevant interdisciplinary training and a lack of institutional support for application of research results. However, students also have a crucial set of opportunities (e.g., access to academic resources outside their degree programs and opportunities to design research projects promoting collaboration with stakeholders) at their disposal to address these problems. On the basis of results of breakout discussions at a symposium on the human dimensions of the ocean, a review of the literature, and our own experiences, we devised recommendations on how graduate students can create resources within their academic institutions, institutionalize resources, and engage with stakeholders to promote real‐world conservation outcomes. Within their academic institutions, graduate students should foster links to practitioners and promote knowledge and skill sharing among students. To institutionalize resources, students should cultivate student leaders and faculty sponsors, systematically document their program activities, and engage in strategic planning to promote the sustainability of their efforts. While conducting research, students should create connections to and engage actively with stakeholders in their relevant study areas and disseminate research results both to stakeholders and the broader public. Our recommendations can serve as a template for graduate students wishing to bridge the research–implementation gap, both during their current studies and in their future careers as conservation researchers and practitioners. Recomendaciones Prácticas para Ayudar a Estudiantes a Vencer la Brecha entre Investigación e Implementación y Promover la Conservación     

Amphibian Breeding Distribution in an Urbanized Landscape

Abstract:  Amphibians commonly use wetlands for breeding habitat, and given the concern about their ongoing global declines, the effects of urbanization on the breeding distribution of amphibians need to be quantified. Thus, we conducted a survey of the larval amphibian community in central Pennsylvania (U.S.A.) wetlands along an urbanization gradient. Wetlands in urban areas had less surrounding forest and wetlands and greater road density than rural wetlands. Urbanization was also associated with increases in hydroperiod (i.e., wetland permanency) and the presence of fish predators. Moreover, urban wetlands had lower larval amphibian species richness than rural wetlands. This decrease in richness was attributable to a decrease in occurrence of wood frogs ( Rana sylvatica ) and ambystomatid salamanders ( Ambystoma maculatum and A. jeffersonianum ) in urban sites. Wood frogs and ambystomatid salamanders were positively associated with the amount of forest surrounding sites and negatively associated with hydroperiod. As a result, we hypothesize that these species are sensitive to the effects of urban development. The remaining species in this study appear fairly resilient to the effects of urbanization. These data demonstrate the importance of quantifying both local and landscape attributes when describing the factors that limit the breeding distribution of amphibians. We recommend that to preserve amphibian biodiversity in urbanized landscapes, it is best to focus on regional diversity, which protects a variety of sites that encompass various hydroperiods, have adequate buffer habitat, and are connected by dispersal routes.     

Changes in Forest Use Value through Ecological Succession and Their Implications for Land Management in the Peruvian Amazon

Abstract:  Research on local use values of forests across an ecological succession informs land-use decisions and conservation planning. I evaluated use values of three age classes of secondary forest: fallow fields (<5 years old, $8.20/ha/year), young secondary forest (5–20 years old, $20.60/ha/year), and old secondary forest (>20 years old, $6.80/ha/year). I quantified daily forest product use and calculated use values in dollars per hectare per year for three communities in the northern Peruvian Amazon. I made three comparisons between forest types: number of useful species, value based on different use categories, and overall use values. Old secondary forest had the greatest number of total species present and species collected. Wood, food, and medicine were the three most valuable use categories. The value different families extracted from local forests varied enormously, but median forest values were lower for all forest types than potential gains from agricultural land use (e.g., coffee $167/ha/year). Values of different-aged stands on privately owned lands in two communities did not differ significantly, whereas in the third community, young secondary forest had a significantly greater value than other forest types. Old secondary forests were the most valuable source of wood products, and wood was the only use category in which there was any difference in the value of products extracted from different-aged forest stands. The value of all three forest types on open-access (nonprivate) lands was minimal (mean in each forest type, $0/ha/year). Local people can utilize the valuation results to develop land-use strategies that balance forest product use, agricultural productivity, and biodiversity conservation.