Planning for Climate Change: Identifying Minimum-Dispersal Corridors for the Cape Proteaceae

Abstract:  Climate change poses a challenge to the conventional approach to biodiversity conservation, which relies on fixed protected areas, because the changing climate is expected to shift the distribution of suitable areas for many species. Some species will persist only if they can colonize new areas, although in some cases their dispersal abilities may be very limited. To address this problem we devised a quantitative method for identifying multiple corridors of connectivity through shifting habitat suitabilities that seeks to minimize dispersal demands first and then the area of land required. We applied the method to Proteaceae mapped on a 1-minute grid for the western part of the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa, to supplement the existing protected areas, using Worldmap software. Our goal was to represent each species in at least 35 grid cells (approximately 100 km²) at all times between 2000 and 2050 despite climate change. Although it was possible to achieve the goal at reasonable cost, caution will be needed in applying our method to reserves or other conservation investments until there is further information to support or refine the climate-change models and the species' habitat-suitability and dispersal models.     

Predicted Climate‐Driven Bird Distribution Changes and Forecasted Conservation Conflicts in a Neotropical Savanna

Abstract: Climate‐change scenarios project significant temperature changes for most of South America. We studied the potential impacts of predicted climate‐driven change on the distribution and conservation of 26 broad‐range birds from South America Cerrado biome (a savanna that also encompass tracts of grasslands and forests). We used 12 temperature or precipitation‐related bioclimatic variables, nine niche modeling techniques, three general circulation models, and two climate scenarios (for 2030, 2065, 2099) for each species to model distribution ranges. To reach a consensus scenario, we used an ensemble‐forecasting approach to obtain an average distribution for each species at each time interval. We estimated the range extent and shift of each species. Changes in range size varied across species and according to habitat dependency; future predicted range extent was negatively correlated with current predicted range extent in all scenarios. Evolution of range size under full or null dispersal scenarios varied among species from a 5% increase to an 80% decrease. The mean expected range shifts under null and full‐dispersal scenarios were 175 and 200 km, respectively (range 15–399 km), and the shift was usually toward southeastern Brazil. We predicted larger range contractions and longer range shifts for forest‐ and grassland‐dependent species than for savanna‐dependent birds. A negative correlation between current range extent and predicted range loss revealed that geographically restricted species may face stronger threat and become even rarer. The predicted southeasterly direction of range changes is cause for concern because ranges are predicted to shift to the most developed and populated region of Brazil. Also, southeastern Brazil is the least likely region to contain significant dispersal corridors, to allow expansion of Cerrado vegetation types, or to accommodate creation of new reserves.     

Bird Conservation in Brazil

Abstract:  Brazil has one of the richest avifaunas in the world, with recent estimates varying from 1696 to 1731 species. About 10% (193 taxa) of these are threatened. The Amazon has the highest number of species, followed by the Atlantic Forest and the Cerrado; most of Brazil's endemic birds, however, are in the Atlantic Forest. Brazil's threatened species occur mostly in the Atlantic Forest, especially in the southeast lowlands and the northeast. The Cerrado has the second highest number of threatened species. The two major threats to Brazilian birds are habitat loss, degradation, and fragmentation and hunting, most especially for illegal commerce. A number of conservation and research initiatives over the last 20 years have significantly improved our capacity to address and resolve major issues for bird conservation. Brazil requires a National Bird Conservation Plan to draw up priorities for research and conservation over the next decade.     

Elemental Conservation Units: Communicating Extinction Risk without Dictating Targets for Protection

Abstract:  Conservation biologists mostly agree on the need to identify and protect biodiversity below the species level but have not yet resolved the best approach. We addressed 2 issues relevant to this debate. First, we distinguished between the abstract goal of preserving the maximum amount of unique biodiversity and the pragmatic goal of minimizing the loss of ecological goods and services given that further loss of biodiversity seems inevitable. Second, we distinguished between the scientific task of assessing extinction risk and the normative task of choosing targets for protection. We propose that scientific advice on extinction risk be given at the smallest meaningful scale: the elemental conservation unit (ECU). An ECU is a demographically isolated population whose probability of extinction over the time scale of interest (say 100 years) is not substantially affected by natural immigration from other populations. Within this time frame, the loss of an ECU would be irreversible without human intervention. Society's decision to protect an ECU ought to reflect human values that have social, economic, and political dimensions. Scientists can best inform this decision by providing advice about the probability that an ECU will be lost and the ecological and evolutionary consequences of that loss in a form that can be integrated into landscape planning. The ECU approach provides maximum flexibility to decision makers and ensures that the scientific task of assessing extinction risk informs, but remains distinct from, the normative social challenge of setting conservation targets.     

The International Law Commission and Legal Principles Related to the Non-navigational Uses of the Waters of International Rivers

There are serious problems related to the use and conservation of international rivers. Riparian nations tend to use their waters and to transfer negative impacts, such as pollution, to other countries. This paper examines the work of the International Law Commission as it seeks to elaborate a framework convention for the use and conservation of shared watercourses. Although this task is still in progress, basic substantive principles such as 'equitable apportionment' and 'prohibition against appreciable harm' seem to be widely agreed upon. The immediate need is the development of and the agreement on, procedural systems for conflict resolution.