The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030

In this United States-focused analysis we use outputs from two general circulation models (GCMs) driven by different greenhouse gas forcing scenarios as inputs to regional climate and chemical transport models to investigate potential changes in near-term U.S. air quality due to climate change. We conduct multiyear simulations to account for interannual variability and characterize the near-term influence of a changing climate on tropospheric ozone-related health impacts near the year 2030, which is a policy-relevant time frame that is subject to fewer uncertainties than other approaches employed in the literature. We adopt a 2030 emissions inventory that accounts for fully implementing anthropogenic emissions controls required by federal, state, and/or local policies, which is projected to strongly influence future ozone levels. We quantify a comprehensive suite of ozone-related mortality and morbidity impacts including emergency department visits, hospital admissions, acute respiratory symptoms, and lost school days, and estimate the economic value of these impacts. Both GCMs project average daily maximum temperature to increase by 1–4°C and 1–5 ppb increases in daily 8-hr maximum ozone at 2030, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary greatly over space and time. We estimate tens to thousands of additional ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year for these two scenarios and calculate an economic burden of these health outcomes of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010$).

Implications:?Near-term changes to the climate have the potential to greatly affect ground-level ozone. Using a 2030 emission inventory with regional climate fields downscaled from two general circulation models, we project mean temperature increases of 1 to 4°C and climate-driven mean daily 8-hr maximum ozone increases of 1–5 ppb, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary significantly over space and time. These increased ozone levels are estimated to result in tens to thousands of ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year and an economic burden of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010$).     

Coastal retreat and/or advance adjacent to defences in England and Wales

Retreat and advance of shoreline position occurs naturally, and also as a result of defences which are constructed to prevent erosion and flooding. Retreat more commonly manifests itself down-drift of defences due to a sediment deficit causing the coast to become ‘set-back’. Advance normally develops due to sediment accumulation up-drift of a barrier inhibiting longshore drift, resulting in the coast becoming ‘set-forward’. Many examples of set-backs and set-forwards are recorded, but their location, number and cause is not known on a national scale. Using the Futurecoast aerial photographs, approximately 200 localities were identified as set-back or set-forward in England and Wales, with half situated in the Eastern and South East regions of England. Half of the total set-backs or set-forwards were on cliffed coasts, and half on low-lying coasts. Without local knowledge it is difficult to distinguish between set-backs and set-forwards. Set-backs often indicate higher retreat rates, thus threatening cliff-top infrastructure which requires defence upgrade and extensions, as well as raising maintenance costs. Monitoring set-backs is important for shoreline management, because as retreat continues, set-backs evolve and artificial headlands form and grow. This is reinforced by the shift from hard defence policies towards softer engineering approaches, managed realignment and limited intervention.     

Temperature and pressure tolerance of larvae of Crepidula fornicata suggest thermal limitation of bathymetric range

The extant deep-sea fauna is thought to result from recolonisation of this environment by shallow-water organisms following climate-driven mass extinctions. Planktonic larval tolerance to high pressure is considered an important preadaptation for successful deep-sea invasion. In this study, the pressure and temperature tolerance of a species without any known confamilial deep-sea relative were assessed for the first time. Early- and late-veliger larvae of the shallow-water species Crepidula fornicata were subjected to a temperature/hydrostatic pressure regime from 5 to 25 °C and from 0.1 to 40 MPa. Although early and late veliger survived pressures equivalent to 2,000 m water depth or greater at all temperatures, decreased larval activity indicated significant sublethal temperature and pressure effects. Reduced larval activity of early veliger at low temperatures suggests that the bathymetric range of this species may be thermally constrained. A mechanistic model is proposed to explain the emerging pattern of ontogenetic shifts in pressure tolerance of shallow-water benthic invertebrates.     

Mate attraction by females in a sexually cannibalistic praying mantis

We studied mate attraction by females of the praying mantid, Tenodera aridifolia sinensis, testing honest signaling of mate availability versus deceptive signaling to attract males for sexual cannibalism. We experimentally varied female diet and mating history and measured the rate of attraction of a wild population of males to caged females. Honest signaling theory predicts that virgin females will attract males at the greatest rate whereas deceptive signaling predicts that hungry females (which are more likely to cannibalize males) will attract more males, particularly among non-virgin females. Our results show that hungry females did not attract more males than well-fed females. Indeed, the opposite was true: hungry females attracted significantly fewer males. Moreover, hungry females were no more likely than well-fed females to attract males subsequent to mating, and mated females attracted males at a lower rate than did virgin females. We also observed female T. aridifolia sinensis and male Mantis religiosa arriving at the caged females and we discuss the significance of these observations. The results refute the hypothesis of deceptive signaling and show that mate attraction signals of female T. aridifolia sinensis are honest indicators of female mate availability and a lower risk of sexual cannibalism.     

Information as a management tool: An evaluation of the Pemigewasset Wilderness management plan

The newly instituted management plan for the Pemigewasset Wilderness area of New Hampshire, USA, which relies principally on providing information to visitors, represents a departure from traditional plans. Logit analysis of survey data indicates limited evidence of the plan having much direct impact on visitor behavior. There is evidence of success in information dissemination to area users; however, the type of information that is being relayed to backcountry users does not appear to be that which the management plan is attempting to promote.     

Effects of ozone on foliar leaching in Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst): confounding factors due to NOx production during ozone generation

Previous experiments with conifers fumigated with O(3), produced by air-operated electric discharge ozonators, have provided evidence that O(3) increases the leaching of NO(3)(-), NH(4)(+), K(+), Ca(2+), Mg(2+) and some other cations from needles, when the trees are treated with acid mist. This evidence has provided the foundation of the ozone-acid mist hypothesis of spruce decline. We report experiments with Norway spruce saplings fumigated with purified and unpurified O(3). The results show that the accumulation of NO(3)(-) in the needles arises from the rapid deposition of N(2)O(5) and HNO(3) formed from N(2) in the ozonator. An increase in removal of NH(4)(+), Na(+), Ca(2+), Mg(2+), Zn(2+) and Mn(2+) from the needles during soaking in H(2)SO(4), pH3, was also observed, which was related to the increase in NO(3)(-) but was independent of O(3) concentration. It is concluded that results of previous experiments cited in support of the ozone-acid mist hypothesis arose from effects which were at least partly caused by N(2)O(5) produced as a contaminant, and were incorrectly attributed to ozone. Other effects, such as growth stimulations, visible symptons, enhanced frost sensitivity, and infestation by pests or pathogens, which have been attributed to O(3) generated by electric discharge in air, should be interpreted with caution. Future experiments with ozone must eliminate this problem by either using O(2)-driven ozonators, or by purifying the output from air-driven ozonators using cold and/or water traps.     

Genetic amniocentesis in multiple gestations

Thirty-one genetic amniocenteses involving multiple gestations were performed in the genetics unit between 1976 and 1982. Three sets of triplets were included. Precise locations of the sacs were determined using real-time ultrasonography and successful sampling of all sacs was accomplished. Spontaneous abortions occurred in two normal twins and one normal triplet gestation. Two therapeutic abortions were performed for fetal abnormalities. Two cases of discordance for trisomy 21 (one twin and one triplet) were allowed to continue; the twin case terminated at 25 weeks' gestation with neonatal deaths and the triplets are alive and well.     

Assessing geobiosphere work of generating global reserves of coal, crude oil, and natural gas

A teacher of ours used to say, “Like ice in a fire, something for nothing you will never acquire”, which is a poetic equivalent of “there is no such a thing as a free lunch”. Human economies are dependent on high quality fossil fuels and will likely continue depending on them for some time to come. Value of a resource is not only what one pays for it, or what can be extracted from it, but also value can be attributed to the “effort” required in its production. In this analysis we apply the emergy synthesis method to evaluate the work invested by the geobiosphere to generate the global storages of fossil energy resources. The upgrading of raw resources to secondary fuels is also evaluated. The analysis relies on published estimates of historic, global net primary production (NPP) on land and oceans, published preservation and conversion factors of organic matter, and assessments of the present total global storages of coal, petroleum, and natural gas. Results show that the production of coal resources over geologic time required between 6.63E4 (±0.51E4) seJ/J and 9.71E4 (±0.79E4) seJ/J, while, oil and natural gas resources required about 1.48E5 (±0.07 E5) seJ/J and 1.70E5 (±0.06E5) seJ/J, respectively. These values are between 1.5 and 2.5 times larger than previous estimates and acknowledge a far greater power of fossil fuels in driving and shaping modern society.