Trends in anecdotal fox sightings in Tasmania accounted for by psychological factors

There has been little evaluation of anecdotal sightings as a means to confirm new incursions of invasive species. This paper explores the potential for equivocal information communicated by the media to account for patterns of anecdotal reports. In 2001, it was widely reported that red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) had been deliberately released in the island state of Tasmania (Australia), although this claim was later revealed to be baseless. Regardless, by 2013 a total of 3153 anecdotal fox sightings had been reported by members of the public, which implied their distribution was wide. For each month in 2001–2003, we defined a monthly media index (MMI) of fox‐related media coverage, an index of their relative seasonal abundance (abundance), and a factor denoting claims of fox evidence (claimed evidence) regardless of its evidentiary quality. We fitted a generalized linear model with Poisson error for monthly totals of anecdotal sightings with factors of year and claimed evidence and covariates of MMI, abundance, and hours of darkness. The collective effect of psychological factors (MMI, claimed evidence, and year) relative to biophysical factors (photoperiod and abundance) was highly significant (χ² = 122.1, df = 6, p < 0.0001), whereas anticipated changes in abundance had no significant influence on reported sightings (p = 0.15). An annual index of fox media from 2001 to 2010 was strongly associated with the yearly tally of anecdotal sightings (p = 0.018). The odds ratio of sightings ranked as reliable by the fox eradication program in any year decreased exponentially at a rate of 0.00643 as the total number of sightings increased (p < 0.0001) and was indicative of an observer‐expectancy bias. Our results suggest anecdotal sightings are highly susceptible to cognitive biases and when used to qualify and quantify species presence can contribute to flawed risk assessments.     

Predicting Gran alkalinity and calcium concentrations in river waters over a national scale using a novel modification to the G-BASH model

Monthly stream water calcium and Gran alkalinity concentration data from 11 sub-catchments of the Nether Beck in the English Lake District have been used to appraise the transferability of the Scottish, River Dee-based G-BASH model. Readily available riparian zone geochemistry and flow paths were used initially to predict minimum and mean stream water concentrations at the Nether Beck, based on calibration equations from the River Dee catchment data. Predicted values significantly exceeded observed values. Differences in runoff between the two areas, leading to a dilution effect in the Nether Beck, explained most of the difference between observed and predicted values. Greater acid deposition in the Lake District also reduced stream water Gran alkalinity concentrations in that area. If regional differences in precipitation, evapotranspiration and pollutant deposition are incorporated into the model, it may then be used reliably to predict catchment susceptibility to acidification over a wide regional (national) scale.     

Spatial and temporal variability of ambient air toxics data

This paper summarizes information on the spatial and temporal variability of selected air toxics pollutants collected on a national basis primarily for a period encompassing 1990-2003. Spatial information on pollutant concentrations is characterized in terms of within-city and between-city variability. Temporal information is summarized as diurnal and seasonal variability and in multiyear trends. The information on variability is presented in the framework of a larger need for systematic documentation of information on air toxics pollutants to assess progress in air pollution control programs.     

Causal regulations vs. political will: why human zoonotic infections increase despite precautionary bans on animal antibiotics.

Using precautionary principles when facing incomplete facts and causal conjectures raises the possibility of a Faustian bargain. This paper applies systems dynamics based on previously unavailable data to show how well intended precautionary policies for promoting food safety may backfire unless they are informed by quantitative cause-and-effect models of how animal antibiotics affect animal and human health. We focus on European Union and United States formulations of regulatory precaution and then analyze zoonotic infections in terms of the consequences of relying on political will to justify precautionary bans. We do not attempt a political analysis of these issues; rather, we conduct a regulatory analysis of precautionary legal requirements and use Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) to assess a set of policy outcomes. Thirty-seven years ago, the Joint Committee on the Use of Antibiotics in Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine (the Swann Report) warned that uncontrolled use of similar antibiotics in humans and food animals could promote the emergence of resistant strains of foodborne bacteria that could endanger human health. Since then, many countries have either banned or restricted antibiotics as feed additives for promoting animal growth. Others, including the United States, have relied on prudent use guidelines and programs that reduce total microbial loads, rather than focusing exclusively on antibiotic-resistant bacteria. In retrospect, the regulatory strategy of banning or restricting animal antibiotic uses has had limited success: it has been followed in many cases by deteriorating animal health and increases in human illnesses and resistance rates. Conversely, a combination of continued prudent use of antibiotics to prevent and control animal infections, together with HACCP and other improvements, has been followed by large improvements in the microbial safety of chickens and other food animals in the United States, leaving both animals and people better off now than they were decades ago. A quantitative risk assessment model of microbiological risks (Campylobacter because of data availability) suggests that these outcomes may be more than coincidental: prudent use of animal antibiotics may actually improve human health, while bans on animal antibiotics, intended to be precautionary, inadvertently may harm human health.     

Integrated catchment management in Western Australia: Transition from concept to implementation

Integrated catchment management (ICM) was introduced as state policy in 1988 to overcome land and water degradation in Western Australia (WA). Key elements of ICM are cooperation among state and local governments and landholders; involvement of landholders and local communities in identification of issues and solutions; and, agreement on common objectives. This study identifies the issues that led to the adoption of integrated catchment management in Western Australia, outlines its main characteristics, and reviews the progress and problems encountered during its initial implementation. ICM has generally been accepted and endorsed in WA. However, differences of opinion have emerged regarding exactly what it means and how it should be applied. Designing ideal organizational structures for ICM is not sufficient for it to be effective. Ultimately, people have to make ICM function, and therefore it is essential that priority be given to cultivating the good will and trust necessary for ICM to work well. ICM also requires a long-term perspective and appreciation that it requires many people and agencies to move out of current “comfort zones.” As a result, initial implementation of ICM usually will encounter turbulence and debate.     

DECISION PARAMETERS FOR COMBINED USE OF EFFLUENT DISCHARGES,SURFACE FLOWS,AND GROUND WATER1

ABSTRACT: Decision parameters affecting combined use of effluent discharges and surface flows and ground water available at Gillespie Dam on the Gila River in Arizona are identified and analyzed. Hydrologic, economic, legal, and institutional parameters are considered separately and in combination. The interrelationships of irrigation subsystems, water use functions, institutional involvement, economic and legal constraints are illustrated. Recent hydrologic studies indicate that the natural flow of the Gila River will increase with the discharge of Phoenix sewage effluent and then there will be a drastic decline when the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station commences in 1985. Competition for any increases in effluent discharges and surface flows could be ameliorated through the combined efforts of existing or reorganized entities resulting in sharing of costs and benefits. The analysis leads to recommendations concerning joint use of facilities, proration of fixed and variable costs, and creation of a mutual water company.     

COMPLEMENTING OBJECTIVE PROCEDURES WITH SUBJECTIVE PRIORS IN WATER RESOURCE PLANNING1

A procedure is outlined which allows consideration of both objective and subjective indicators to establish priorities in plan implementation of water resource development. The objective procedure utilizes stepwise multiple discriminant analysis to predict community performance regarding planned project implementation, based on previous project implementation in the Northeast. The subjective procedure incorporates prior probabilities developed by the planner, based on observation and experience gained through the planning process. The proposed analysis could eliminate waste through better allocation of planning funds to implementation studies exhibiting higher probability of early implementation.     

Transport of lead and diesel fuel through a peat soil near Juneau, AK: a pilot study

A set of peat column experiments was used to determine the transport potential of lead (Pb) and diesel range organics (DRO) in palustrine slope wetlands near Juneau, AK. This project is important to southeast Alaskan communities because limited land resources are forcing development of regional wetlands. This study was instigated by concerns that proposed modifications to a nearby rifle range using DRO-contaminated soil posed a potential risk to an anadromous fish-bearing stream 250 m from the site. Three pairs of peat columns were extracted from the rifle range for analysis, one pair along and two pairs across the natural bedding planes of the soil. One column in each pair was spiked with Pb and DRO and the other was used as a control. Approximately 1-year worth of water (171 cm) was passed through each column and leachate was collected at regular intervals. The results showed that substantial DRO transport only occurred along the bedding planes. Leads was surprisingly mobile, both along and across the bedding planes with estimated soil-water partition coefficients several orders of magnitude lower than commonly published values, probably because the peat was heavily Pb-loaded by lead from bullets and because the peat's acidic, organic-rich environment enhanced Pb mobility. The chemical outflow behavior agreed with a simple macropore transport model. These results underscore the need for caution when developing regional wetlands.     

Effects of mechanical fracturing and experimental trampling on Hawaiian corals

In situ trampling occurred under experimental conditions to quantify the differences in the responses to anthropogenic trampling in four dominant species of Hawaiian corals, Porites compressa, Porites lobata, Montipora capitata, and Pocillopora meandrina. Trampling was simulated daily for a period of nine days at which time further breakage was minimal. Forty treatment colonies produced 559 fragments. Trampling was followed by an 11-month recovery period. Coral colony and fragment mortality was low. All four species were highly tolerant of inflicted damage, suggesting that some species of corals can withstand limited pulse events that allow time for recovery. Growth rates following trampling were significantly lower in the treatment groups for three of the four species. This study demonstrated that very few trampling events can produce significant changes in growth even after a long recovery period. Survivorship of fragments is clearly size- and species-dependent in M. capitata and P. compressa. Smaller fragments (<5 cm) had higher mortality than larger fragments (>5 cm). High breakage rates for M. capitata and P. compressa are consistent with the nearshore, low-energy regions they inhabit—the same environment frequented by skin divers and waders. Mechanical tests were conducted to determine tensile and compressive strengths. Pocillopora meandrina exhibited the strongest skeletal strength, followed in decreasing order by Porites lobata, Porites compressa, and Montipora capitata. The skeletal strength obtained from the experiments correlate with the wave energy present in the environments in the regions they inhabit, suggesting that structural strength of corals is an adaptive response to hydraulic stress.