Multi-decadal changes in tundra environments and ecosystems: synthesis of the International Polar Year-Back to the Future project (IPY-BTF)

Understanding the responses of tundra systems to global change has global implications. Most tundra regions lack sustained environmental monitoring and one of the only ways to document multi-decadal change is to resample historic research sites. The International Polar Year (IPY) provided a unique opportunity for such research through the Back to the Future (BTF) project (IPY project #512). This article synthesizes the results from 13 papers within this Ambio Special Issue. Abiotic changes include glacial recession in the Altai Mountains, Russia; increased snow depth and hardness, permafrost warming, and increased growing season length in sub-arctic Sweden; drying of ponds in Greenland; increased nutrient availability in Alaskan tundra ponds, and warming at most locations studied. Biotic changes ranged from relatively minor plant community change at two sites in Greenland to moderate change in the Yukon, and to dramatic increases in shrub and tree density on Herschel Island, and in subarctic Sweden. The population of geese tripled at one site in northeast Greenland where biomass in non-grazed plots doubled. A model parameterized using results from a BTF study forecasts substantial declines in all snowbeds and increases in shrub tundra on Niwot Ridge, Colorado over the next century. In general, results support and provide improved capacities for validating experimental manipulation, remote sensing, and modeling studies.     

Sample Design Considerations for Indoor Air Exposure Surveys

Concern about the potential for indoor air pollution has prompted recent surveys of radon and NO₂ concentrations In homes and personal exposure studies of volatile organics, carbon monoxide and pesticides, to name a few. The statistical problems in designing sample surveys that measure the physical environment are diverse and more complicated than those encountered in traditional surveys of human attitudes and attributes. This paper addresses issues encountered when designing indoor air quality (IAQ) studies. General statistical concepts related to target population definition, frame creation, and sample selection for area household surveys and telephone surveys are presented. The implications of different measurement approaches are discussed, and response rate considerations are described.     

Ambient Ozone Concentration Patterns among Eastern U.S. Urban Areas Using Factor Analysis

Data on dally maximum ozone concentrations measured at ambient air monitoring stations operated by state and local air pollution control agencies in the Eastern United States were analyzed using principal factor analysis. Four orthogonal factors representing O₃ formation potentials were derived using the statistical package SPSS; these factors accounted for over two-thirds of the variations in 1978 summer O₃ levels at 21 urban-oriented stations. The analysis confirmed that O₃ variations are similar among stations within defined geographical areas; this confirmation supports the widely held theory that ambient O₃ formations are reglonwlde. The analysis suggested that trends analysis for determining general progress in improving O₃ air quality should be based on aggregate statistics from clusters of monitors rather than from a single monitoring station within areas associated with the derived factors.     

Revised Air Quality Surveillance Requirements for State Implementation Plans

The National Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Program is carried out by state and local air pollution control agencies in support of their State Implementation Plans (SIP’s). The current EPA regulations which specify the characteristics of these state monitoring programs are undergoing change as a result of a comprehensive review by an independent work group. These revised regulations, which are described in the paper, are intended to improve the quality, timeliness, and usability of the data generated by the states for all data users. In addition, the revised regulations seek to bring about; (a) national consistency in monitoring site locations through standardized siting procedures; (b) improved network operations by means of a minimum quality assurance program; (c) reduced network inflexibility through an annual network review process; and (d) reduced data reporting through changed data reporting procedures.     

Back to Basics

ABSTRACT

Tests of the compatibility of geomembrane (GM) samples with waste were conducted using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Method 9090 and the Comprehensive Testing System (CTS). The CTS is a multi-axial performance test capable of simultaneous cyclic mechanical loads and chemical exposure. The test chemicals consisted of solvents, transportation-related compounds, and synthesized landfill leachate. Method 9090 testing was unable to distinguish between the effects of individual chemicals to which the GM was subjected, while the CTS was able to provide statistically-significant differences that were also traceable to chemical properties of the solvent and the GM liner. Further, the time required for changes in mechanical properties of the GM was significantly shorter than would be expected based upon diffusion of the solvent into the GM alone. The combination of chemical attack with mechanical load was found to enhance both reduction in mechanical properties and the ability of the solvent to diffuse into the GM. The CTS is a more realistic test than the existing standard test methods because of its ability to provide multi-axial loads and chemical exposure simultaneously.     

Acceptable Cancer Risks: Probabilities and Beyond

The acceptability of cancer risk requires consideration of factors that extend beyond mere numerical representations, such as either individual lifetime risk in excess of background and excess incidence. Recently, use of these numbers has been tempered by the addition of qualitative weights-of-evidence that describe the degree of support provided by animal and epidemiologic results. Nevertheless, many other factors, most of which are not quantitative, require incorporation but remain neglected by the analyst eager to use quantitative results.

In this paper we show that simple risk measures are often fraught with problems. Moreover, these measures do not incorporate the very essence of acceptability, which includes notions of responsibility, accountability, equity, and procedural legitimacy, among others. We link the process of risk assessment to those legal and regulatory standards that shape it. These standards are among the principal means to resolve risk-related disputes and to enhance the balancing of competing interests when science and law meet on uncertain and often conjectural ground.

We conclude the paper with a proposal for the portfolio approach to manage cancer risks and to deal with uncertain scientific information. This approach leads to the concept of "provisional acceptability," which reflects the choices available to the decisionmaker, and the trade-offs inherent to such choices.     

Studying common-pool resources over time: A longitudinal case study of the Buen Hombre fishery in the Dominican Republic

Like many small-scale fishing communities around the world, the community of Buen Hombre in the Dominican Republic is dealing with a set of challenges to reconcile its fishing activities with the ecology on which it depends. Also like many such communities, this case has been examined at a particular period in time by a group of social scientists, but not over substantial lengths of time in order to examine the longitudinal validity of the conclusions made during this period. In this paper we combine data from previous anthropological work with our own primary social and ecological data to conduct a longitudinal case study of the Buen Hombre fishery. Our over-time comparison focuses on a suite of mostly social and institutional variables to explain what we find to be a continued degradation of the fishery, and we conclude the analysis by presenting a causal-loop diagram, summarizing our inferences regarding the complex interactions among these variables. We find that a mix of factors, notably changes in gear and fishing sites used, the number of fishermen and their livelihood diversity, as well as an increased connectivity between Buen Hombre and its external environment, have contributed to the decline of the condition of Buen Hombre coral reef fishery. We conclude with a discussion of what may lie ahead for this particular case and others like it.