SACRAMENTO RIVER FLOW RECONSTRUCTED TO A.D. 869 FROM TREE RINGS1

ABSTRACT: A time series of annual flow of the Sacramento River, California, is reconstructed to A.D. 869 from tree rings for a long‐term perspective on hydrologic drought. Reconstructions derived by principal components regression of flow on time‐varying subsets of tree‐ring chronologies account for 64 to 81 percent of the flow variance in the 1906 to 1977 calibration period. A Monte Carlo analysis of reconstructed n‐year running means indicates that the gaged record contains examples of drought extremes for averaging periods of perhaps = 6 to 10 years, but not for longer and shorter averaging periods. For example, the estimated probability approaches 1.0 that the flow in A.D. 1580 was lower than the lowest single‐year gaged flow. The tree‐ring record also suggests that persistently high or low flows over 50‐year periods characterize some parts of the long‐term flow history. The results should contribute to sensible water resources planning for the Sacramento Basin and to the methodology of incorporating tree‐ring data in the assessment of the probability of hydrologic drought.     

The Efficacy of a Programme of Landslide Risk Reduction in Areas of Unplanned Housing in the Eastern Caribbean

Poor countries are disproportionately affected by the cost of disasters. Yet there is evidence of the benefits of seeking to mitigate the impact of a disaster, compared with the costs incurred in ‘making good’ after a major event has occurred. This article reviews a programme of landslide risk reduction in unplanned communities in the Eastern Caribbean. The construction of appropriate surface water management measures, based on the application of scientific and engineering principles, has been demonstrated to reduce the hazard from rainfall-triggered landslides. Adopting a community-based approach additionally delivers social and environmental benefits relating to employment generation, improvements in the environmental conditions within the community, and improvements slope management practices. The sustained implementation of the community-based projects has provided the necessary evidence-base for these practices to influence Government policy and practice, and gain recognition from regional development agencies. The strategic and incremental uptake of the community-based methodology is demonstrated to be an effective means for delivering physical landslide risk reduction measures in the most ‘at risk’ areas of unplanned housing.     

Designing and Implementing a Network for Sensing Water Quality and Hydrology across Mountain to Urban Transitions

Water resources are increasingly impacted by growing human populations, land use, and climate changes, and complex interactions among biophysical processes. In an effort to better understand these factors in semiarid northern Utah, United States, we created a real‐time observatory consisting of sensors deployed at aquatic and terrestrial stations to monitor water quality, water inputs, and outputs along mountain to urban gradients. The Gradients Along Mountain to Urban Transitions (GAMUT) monitoring network spans three watersheds with similar climates and streams fed by mountain winter‐derived precipitation, but that differ in urbanization level, land use, and biophysical characteristics. The aquatic monitoring stations in the GAMUT network include sensors to measure chemical (dissolved oxygen, specific conductance, pH, nitrate, and dissolved organic matter), physical (stage, temperature, and turbidity), and biological components (chlorophyll‐a and phycocyanin). We present the logistics of designing, implementing, and maintaining the network; quality assurance and control of numerous, large datasets; and data acquisition, dissemination, and visualization. Data from GAMUT reveal spatial differences in water quality due to urbanization and built infrastructure; capture rapid temporal changes in water quality due to anthropogenic activity; and identify changes in biological structure, each of which are demonstrated via case study datasets.     

Collective risk management: insights and opportunities for DoD decision-makers

Individuals make decisions every day in group contexts which vary in size, structure, and purpose. The US Department of Defense (DoD) is a large organization composed of many groups, and like many organizations, it has a vested interest in improving the performance of its affiliated groups, especially as it concerns risk-informed decision-making. This article discusses current foibles and considerations for decision-making in DoD groups as identified through a workshop with experts in risk-informed decision-making, cognitive science, and military operations. Experts noted that terms associated with risk-informed decision-making were often misconstrued, that formal decision-making frameworks are underutilized, and that many considerations should be taken into account when attempting to improve decision-making performance.     

Book reviews

Cost Benefit Analysis of Environmental Change

Per‐Olov Johansson

Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1993, 232 pp., £13.95

Computerised Environmental Modelling: A Practical Introduction using Excel

J. Hardisty, D. M. Taylor & S. E. Metcalfe

Chichester, Wiley, 1993, 204 pp., £14.95

Keeping Pace with Science and Engineering: Case Studies in Environmental Regulation

Washington DC, US National Academy of Engineering, 1993

World Without End: Economics, Environment and Sustainable Development

D. W. Pearce & J. J. Warford

Oxford University Press, New York, 1993, 440 pp., £35.95     

CONFLICTING PERSPECTWES ABOUT DETECTION LIMITS AND ABOUT THE CENSORING OF ENVIRONMENTAL DATA1

ABSTRACT: Current conventions for reporting analytical results from environmental samples brings the objectives of laboratory scientists into conflict with those of environmental scientists. The objective of chemical analyses is to provide estimates of the true composition of samples. Reported results must reflect the analytical uncertainty. Current conventions require left-censoring of those results below the Limit of Detection. The objective of statistical interpretation of environmental data is to provide estimates of the characteristics of ecosystems. Such statistical analyses are often confounded by left-censoring of analytical results. We review the different points of view and propose a compromise which recognizes these conflicting perspectives.     

Assessing slope stability in unplanned settlements in developing countries

Unplanned housing in developing countries is often located on steep slopes. Frequently no building code is enforced for such housing and mains water is provided with no drainage provision. Both of these factors can be particularly significant in terms of landslide risk if, as is so often the case, such slopes lack any planned drainage provision. There is thus a need to develop a model that facilitates the assessment of slope stability in an holistic context, incorporating a wide range of factors (including surface cover, soil water topographic convergence, slope loading and point source water leakage) in order that appropriate advice can be given as to the general controls on slope stability in such circumstances. This paper outlines a model configured for this specific purpose and describes an application to a site in St. Lucia, West Indies, where there is active slope movement in an unplanned housing development on relatively steep topography. The model findings are in accord with the nature of the current failure at the site, provide guidance as to the significance of slope drainage and correspond to inferences drawn from an application of resistance envelope methods to the site. In being able to scenario test a uniquely wide range of combinations of factors, the model structure is shown to be highly valuable in assessing dominant slope stability process controls in such complex environments.     

Transport of fecal bacteria by boots and vehicle tires in a rural Alaskan community

People living without piped water and sewer can be at increased risk for diseases transmitted via the fecal-oral route. One rural Alaskan community that relies on hauling water into homes and sewage from homes was studied to determine the pathways of fecal contamination of drinking water and the human environment so that barriers can be established to protect health. Samples were tested for the fecal indicator, Escherichia coli, and the less specific indicator group, total coliforms. Shoes transported fecal contamination from outside to floor material inside buildings. Contamination in puddles on the road, in conjunction with contamination found on all-terrain vehicle (ATV) tires, supports vehicle traffic as a mechanism for transporting contamination from the dumpsite or other source areas to the rest of the community. The abundance of fecal bacteria transported around the community on shoes and ATV tires suggests that centralized measures for waste disposal as well as shoe removal in buildings could improve sanitation and health in the community.     

Phosphorus transfer in surface runoff from intensive pasture systems at various scales: a review

Phosphorus transfer in runoff from intensive pasture systems has been extensively researched at a range of scales. However, integration of data from the range of scales has been limited. This paper presents a conceptual model of P transfer that incorporates landscape effects and reviews the research relating to P transfer at a range of scales in light of this model. The contribution of inorganic P sources to P transfer is relatively well understood, but the contribution of organic P to P transfer is still relatively poorly defined. Phosphorus transfer has been studied at laboratory, profile, plot, field, and watershed scales. The majority of research investigating the processes of P transfer (as distinct from merely quantifying P transfer) has been undertaken at the plot scale. However, there is a growing need to integrate data gathered at a range of scales so that more effective strategies to reduce P transfer can be identified. This has been hindered by the lack of a clear conceptual framework to describe differences in the processes of P transfer at the various scales. The interaction of hydrological (transport) factors with P source factors, and their relationship to scale, require further examination. Runoff-generating areas are highly variable, both temporally and spatially. Improvement in the understanding and identification of these areas will contribute to increased effectiveness of strategies aimed at reducing P transfers in runoff. A thorough consideration of scale effects using the conceptual model of P transfer outlined in this paper will facilitate the development of improved strategies for reducing P losses in runoff.     

Solar driven nitrous acid formation on building material surfaces containing titanium dioxide: A concern for air quality in urban areas?

The photoenhanced uptake of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) to the surface of commercially available self-cleaning window glass has been studied under controlled laboratory conditions. This material is one of an array of modern building products which incorporate titanium dioxide (TiO₂) nanoparticles and are finding increasing use in populated urban areas. Amongst the principal drivers for the use of these materials is that they are thought to facilitate the irreversible removal of pollutants such as NO₂ and organic molecules from the atmosphere and thus act to remediate air quality. While it appears that TiO₂ materials do indeed remove organic molecules from built environments, in this study we show that the photoenhanced uptake of NO₂ to one example material, self-cleaning window glass, is in fact accompanied by the substantial formation (50–70%) of gaseous nitrous acid (HONO). This finding has direct and serious implications for the use of these materials in urban areas. Not only is HONO a harmful respiratory irritant, it is also readily photolysed by solar radiation leading to the formation of hydroxyl radicals (OH) together with the re-release of NO_x as NO. The net effect of subsequent OH initiated chemistry can then be the further degradation of air quality through the formation of secondary pollutants such as ozone and VOC oxidation products. In summary, we suggest that a scientifically conceived technical strategy for air quality remediation based on this technology, while widely perceived as universally beneficial, could in fact have effects precisely opposite to those intended.