MODELING A SOCIOLOGICAL-HYDROLOGIC FLOOD CONTROL DECISION SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: This work was the development of a model for analyzing the social components of a flood control or sociological-hydrologic decision process. A general conceptual system was developed from the study of an actual decision. Mathematical values were determined for the social and behavioral variables and these elements were transposed into a mathematical linear model providing a set of equations from which the system could be simulated with the computer.     

Safety with access scaffolds: development of a prototype decision aid based on accident analysis

PROBLEM: Accidents involving temporary access systems, particularly temporary scaffolds, account for a large proportion of injuries in the construction industry worldwide. METHOD: This paper outlines the development of a prototype decision aid (SCAFPASS, an abbreviation for Scaffold Planning Aid for System Safety) to promote access scaffold safety. It was guided by an examination of the root-causes and management deficiencies apparent in: (a) paper-based files of 186 access-related incidents held by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) in the UK; and (b) computer-based files of 2,910 incidents appearing in the HSE database between 1997 to 2000. RESULTS: The more frequent root-causes included the fitting of defective components, unauthorized modification of the structure, omission of barriers, and errors resulting in simple, readily detectable structural faults. Common managerial deficiencies included failure to control risk, unsafe methods and procedures, and inadequate training and supervision. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: SCAFPASS aims to avoid these root-causes by improving safety management from the outset and throughout all phases of a project.     

The environmental audit. I. Concepts

Extensive criticism of water quality monitoring programs has developed as costs are compared with the benefits produced by monitoring efforts. Collecting water quality data while developing understanding of the functional character of the environment will improve water quality monitoring data utility in environmental management. The environmental audit characterizes the attributes of the natural environment (that is, attribute type, intensity, and variability), providing a theoretical as well as practical foundation for data interpretation. In the view proposed here, traditional monitoring means the very narrow activity of collecting samples and perhaps analyzing them and storing the analyses. In the environmental audit, these activities are a mechanism to systematically improve environmental monitoring and assessment by improving the design and implementation of environmental programs. Major reasons why existing programs fail to meet the needs of legislators, regulators, and conservationists are identified.     

Response of Georges Bank cod to periodic and nonperiodic oil spill events

In the management of conflicting dual-resource systems such as continental shelf hydrocarbon extraction and commercial fishing operations, it is necessary to consider the possibility of repeated impact events. The potential magnitude of impacts on Georges Bank fisheries of single oil spill events has been addressed in detail elsewhere (Reed and Spaulding 1979, Reed and others 1980, Spaulding and others 1982). An oil spill-fishery impact estimation model, implemented for the Georges Bank cod fishery (Reed and others 1980), has been used to investigate the potential for nonlinear biological responses to periodic and nonperiodic repetitive spill events. Prerecruit mortality equations incorporating young-of-the-year as well as adult-juvenile interactions, perform acceptably vis-à-vis the historical catch record, but show highly variable behavior under recruitment reductions induced by periodic simulated spills. The results demonstrate the importance of selecting mathematical representations of biological and physical processes underlying population dynamics such that characteristic system behavior is adequately represented in both the time and frequency domains.     

Aposematism in a soft-bodied insect: a case for kin selection

Summary This paper describes the influence on predator behaviour, and the survival of an aposematic aphid, Aphis nerii, in comparison with a palatable, cryptic aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum, when offered to two predators with different foraging tactics. The experiments were designed to test Fisher's (1930) suggestion that aposematism could evolve by kin selection, since aposematic animals often occur in aggregations of relatives. Initially, spiders (Zygiella x-notata) and birds (Parus major) killed high proportions of distasteful A. nerii (60% and 54% respectively). With experience, the predators killed and ate fewer A. nerii. The decreasing mortality of A. nerii after initial encounters with predators, coupled with its apparently obligate parthenogenesis, indicate that the evolution of aposematism in this soft-bodied insect is consistent with kin selection.     

A review of driving risks and impairments associated with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and the effects of stimulant medication on driving performance

INTRODUCTION: Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) may interfere with driving competence, predisposing those with the disorder to impaired driving performance and greater risk for adverse driving outcomes. Effective treatment may minimize the risk in those with ADHD. METHOD: We reviewed the scientific literature on driving risks and impairments associated with ADHD and the effects of stimulants on driving performance. Several lines of evidence were considered, including longitudinal studies and community-derived sample studies. The present review is based on a weekly review (by the first author) of all journals in the behavioral and social sciences indexed in the publication Current Contents spanning the past 15 years, as well as a search of the reference section of all studies found that pertained to driving risks associated with ADHD or to the treatment of ADHD as it relates to driving difficulties. RESULTS: The review of the scientific literature demonstrated well-documented driving risks and impairments associated with ADHD and the positive effects of stimulant medications on driving performance. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians should educate patients/caregivers about the increased risk of adverse outcomes among untreated individuals with ADHD and the role of medication in potentially improving driving performance. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Owing to the significantly higher risk of adverse driving outcomes, the use of stimulant medications to treat people with ADHD who drive may reduce such safety risks.     

Comparing spatial conservation prioritization methods with site- versus spatial dependency-based connectivity

Larval dispersal is an important component of marine reserve networks. Two conceptually different approaches to incorporate dispersal connectivity into spatial planning of these networks exist, and it is an open question as to when either is most appropriate. Candidate reserve sites can be selected individually based on local properties of connectivity or on a spatial dependency-based approach of selecting clusters of strongly connected habitat patches. The first acts on individual sites, whereas the second acts on linked pairs of sites. We used a combination of larval dispersal simulations representing different seascapes and case studies of biophysical larval dispersal models in the Coral Triangle region and the province of Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, to compare the performance of these 2 methods in the spatial planning software Marxan. We explored the reserve design performance implications of different dispersal distances and patterns based on the equilibrium settlement of larvae in protected and unprotected areas. We further assessed different assumptions about metapopulation contributions from unprotected areas, including the case of 100% depletion and more moderate scenarios. The spatial dependency method was suitable when dispersal was limited, a high proportion of the area of interest was substantially degraded, or the target amount of habitat protected was low. Conversely, when subpopulations were well connected, the 100% depletion was relaxed, or more habitat was protected, protecting individual sites with high scores in metrics of connectivity was a better strategy. Spatial dependency methods generally produced more spatially clustered solutions with more benefits inside than outside reserves compared with site-based methods. Therefore, spatial dependency methods potentially provide better results for ecological persistence objectives over enhancing fisheries objectives, and vice versa. Different spatial prioritization methods of using connectivity are appropriate for different contexts, depending on dispersal characteristics, unprotected area contributions, habitat protection targets, and specific management objectives. Comparación entre los métodos de priorización de la conservación espacial con sitio y la conectividad espacial basada en la dependencia     

Impact of desiccation and heat exposure stress on Salmonella tolerance to acidic conditions

In a recent study, the pH of commonly used Salmonella pre-enrichment media became acidic (pH 4.0 to 5.0) when feed or feed ingredients were incubated for 24 h. Acidic conditions have been reported to injure or kill Salmonella. In this study, cultures of four known feed isolates (S. montevideo, S. senftenberg, S. tennessee, and S. schwarzengrund) and four important processing plant isolates (S. typhimurium, S. enteritidis, S. infantis, and S. heidelberg) were grown on meat and bone meal and later subjected to desiccation and heat exposure to stress the microorganism. The impact of stress on the isolates ability to survive in acidic conditions ranging from pH 4.0 to 7.0 was compared to the non-stressed isolate. Cell injury was determined on xylose lysine tergitol 4 (XLT4) and cell death determined on nutrient agar (NA). When measured by cell death in non-stressed Salmonella, S. typhimurium was the most acid tolerant and S. heidelberg was the most acid sensitive whereas in stressed Salmonella, S. senftenberg was the most acid tolerant and S. tennessee was the most acid sensitive. The pH required to cause cell injury varied among isolates. With some isolates, the pH required for 50% cell death and 50% cell injury was similar. In other isolates, cell injury occurred at a more neutral pH. These findings suggest that the pH of pre-enrichment media may influence the recovery and bias the serotype of Salmonella recovered from feed during pre-enrichment.     

Northern Rivers Ecosystem Initiative: Context and Prevailing Legacy

The Northern River Ecosystem Initiative (NREI), 1997–2004, has provided new scientific knowledge in response to specific recommendations from its predecessor, the Northern River Basins Study (NRBS), 1990–1996. The two initiatives together provide a remarkable body of science which is, and will continue to be, used by resource managers responsible for economic and environmental sustainability in the northern watersheds of Alberta. The NREI focused its investigative efforts on improving our understanding related to ecological considerations of changes in river flow, effect of climate change on flow, ecological responses to pollution and cumulative effects, vulnerability of drinking water quality, and to a lesser degree, wildlife (birds) response to large scale changes within the watersheds. Key findings are briefly presented in this paper and discussed in greater detail in the other NREI papers included in this. Commensurate with the undertakings of NREI, provincial and territorial governments, First Nation and Métis communities, and other administrative organizations such as the Mackenzie River Basin Board, undertook policy, regulatory, and watershed initiatives towards achieving sustainability and providing reliable drinking water quality.     

Purpose-Driven Public Sector Reform: The Need for Within-Government Capacity Build for the Management of Slope Stability in Communities in the Caribbean

This article stresses the importance of within-government capacity build as the optimal approach to minimizing landslide risk to the most vulnerable communities in the developing world. Landslide risk is an integrated issue that demands strong managerial leadership and multidisciplinary inclusion to develop structures that deliver sustainable improvements in the reduction of risk. The tension between projects demanding international technical and financial intervention and those capable of “within-country” solutions are examined. More particularly, the challenges of developing a management methodology capable of energizing inter-ministry collaboration to achieve community-level action is examined in the context of a recently established program of slope stability management in St. Lucia. The program, Management of Slope Stability in Communities (MoSSaiC), is shown to have successfully fostered not only extensive technical collaboration within government but also to have energized local communities in the shared mission of capacity build through their direct involvement in the management process.