Climate impact on agroeconomy in semiarid region of Armenia

With 21 % of gross domestic product (GDP) in agricultural sector and having consistently experienced natural disasters (e.g., drought, flood), Armenia is very vulnerable to climate and its change. Given the fact that 63 % of the entire land is planted with grains, this study primarily focuses on the market for wheat flour and bread. Economic welfare loss due to drought episodes is calculated using the economic data integrated with climate measures. Economic data are utilized for the period 1995–2011 (obtained from Statistical Office of Armenia) and specifically include the quantity produced and consumed of wheat flour and bread combined with mean prices, population income, GDP in the agricultural sector, GDP in the planting sector, and governmental expenditure on subsidies. Climate data include temperature and precipitation during the period 1966–2011 (obtained from National Hydrometeorological Service of Armenia). The analysis includes three main components. The first utilizes a market framework that analyzes the impact of climate on equilibrium prices and quantities as well as trade and tax effects. The second employs a logarithmic utility function to estimate the effective insurance policy for the agricultural sector using risk management strategies. Lastly, a macroeconomic model has been developed to assess the efficient sum of governmental expenditure on subsidies and irrigation during the drought episodes and during the mean climatic conditions. All three parts of the study are developed for the first time.     

Causation in risk assessment and management: models, inference, biases, and a microbial risk-benefit case study

Causal inference of exposure-response relations from data is a challenging aspect of risk assessment with important implications for public and private risk management. Such inference, which is fundamentally empirical and based on exposure (or dose)-response models, seldom arises from a single set of data; rather, it requires integrating heterogeneous information from diverse sources and disciplines including epidemiology, toxicology, and cell and molecular biology. The causal aspects we discuss focus on these three aspects: drawing sound inferences about causal relations from one or more observational studies; addressing and resolving biases that can affect a single multivariate empirical exposure-response study; and applying the results from these considerations to the microbiological risk management of human health risks and benefits of a ban on antibiotic use in animals, in the context of banning enrofloxacin or macrolides, antibiotics used against bacterial illnesses in poultry, and the effects of such bans on changing the risk of human food-borne campylobacteriosis infections. The purposes of this paper are to describe novel causal methods for assessing empirical causation and inference; exemplify how to deal with biases that routinely arise in multivariate exposure- or dose-response modeling; and provide a simplified discussion of a case study of causal inference using microbial risk analysis as an example. The case study supports the conclusion that the human health benefits from a ban are unlikely to be greater than the excess human health risks that it could create, even when accounting for uncertainty. We conclude that quantitative causal analysis of risks is a preferable to qualitative assessments because it does not involve unjustified loss of information and is sound under the inferential use of risk results by management.     

Precaution,uncertainty and causation in environmental decisions

What measures of uncertainty and what causal analysis can improve the management of potentially severe, irreversible or dreaded environmental outcomes? Environmental choices show that policies intended to be precautionary (such as adding MTBE to petrol) can cause unanticipated harm (by mobilizing benzene, a known leukemogen, in the ground water). Many environmental law principles set the boundaries of what should be done but do not provide an operational construct to answer this question. Those principles, ranging from the precautionary principle to protecting human health from a significant risk of material health impairment, do not explain how to make environmental management choices when incomplete, inconsistent and complex scientific evidence characterizes potentially adverse environmental outcomes. Rather, they pass the task to lower jurisdictions such as agencies or authorities. To achieve the goals of the principle, those who draft it must deal with scientific casual conjectures, partial knowledge and variable data. In this paper we specifically deal with the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the European Union's (EU) explanation of consistency and on the examination of scientific developments relevant to variability and uncertain data and causation. Managing hazards under the precautionary principle requires inductive, empirical methods of assessment. However, acting on a scientific conjecture can also be socially unfair, costly, and detrimental when applied to complex environmental choices. We describe a constructive framework rationally to meet the command of the precautionary principle using alternative measures of uncertainty and recent statistical methods of causal analysis. These measures and methods can bridge the gap between conjectured future irreversible or severe harm and scant scientific evidence, thus leading to more confident and resilient social choices. We review two sets of measures and computational systems to deal with uncertainty and link them to causation through inductive empirical methods such as Bayesian Networks. We conclude that primary legislation concerned with large uncertainties and potential severe or dreaded environmental outcomes can produce accurate and efficient choices. To do so, primary legislation should specifically indicate what measures can represent uncertainty and how to deal with uncertain causation thus providing guidance to an agency's rulemaking or to an authority's writing secondary legislation. A corollary conclusion with legal, scientific and probabilistic implications concerns how to update past information when the state of information increases because a failure to update can result in regretting past choices. Elected legislators have the democratic mandate to formulate precautionary principles and are accountable. To preserve that mandate, imbedding formal methods to represent uncertainty in the statutory language of the precautionary principle enhances subsequent judicial review of legislative actions. The framework that we propose also reduces the Balkanized views and interpretations of probabilities, possibilities, likelihood and uncertainty that exists in environmental decision-making.     

The importance of ammonium mobility in nitrogen-impacted unfertilized grasslands: A critical reassessment

The physico-chemical absorption characteristics of ammonium-N for 10 soils from 5 profiles in York, UK, show its high potential mobility in N deposition-impacted, unfertilized, permanent grassland soils. Substantial proportions of ammonium-N inputs were retained in the solution phase, indicating that ammonium translocation plays an important role in the N cycling in, and losses from, such soils. This conclusion was further supported by measuring the ammonium-N leaching from intact plant/soil microcosms. The ammonium-N absorption characteristics apparently varied with soil pH, depth and soil texture. It was concluded for the most acid soils especially that ammonium-N leached from litter horizons could be seriously limiting the capacity of underlying soils to retain ammonium. Contrary to common opinion, more attention therefore needs to be paid to ammonium leaching and its potential role in biogeochemical N cycling in semi-natural soil systems subject to atmospheric pollution.     

The electron density distribution in pyridinium and bipyridylium compounds and its relevance to their adsorption by expanding lattice clays

Abstract

Charge distributions in 1, 1'‐ethylene‐2, 2'‐bipyridylium (diquat), 1,1'‐dimethyl‐4,4'‐bipyridylium (paraquat) and 1‐methylpyridinium organocations were calculated by a Complete Neglect of Differential Overlap semi‐empirical quantum mechanical procedure. The data show that the positive charges in the organocations are distributed around the molecules and are greatest in the positions ortho and para to the heterocyclic nitrogen atoms. Earlier interpretations of the mechanisms of adsorption of paraquat and diquat by soils and clays assumed that the charges were located in the heterocyclic nitrogen atoms. Here some consideration is given to the influence of the charge delocalizations on the processes of adsorption by montmorillonite and vermiculite clay preparations.     

Sorption and photolysis studies in soil and sediment of the herbicide napropamide

The influence of soil and sediment composition on sorption and photodegradation of the herbicide napropamide [N,N-diethyl-2-(1-naphthyloxy)propionamide] was investigated. Five soils and one sediment were selected for this study and the clay fractions were obtained by sedimentation. Sorption-desorption was studied by batch equilibration technique and photolysis in a photoreactor emitting within 300-450 nm wavelength with a maximum at 365 nm. Sorption increased with clay content and was not related to organic matter content. High irreversibility of sorption was related to the greater montmorillonite content. The presence of soil or sediment reduced photolysis rate due to screen effect and this process did not depend on solid composition but on particle size distribution.     

Effect of two major N-nitroso hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) metabolites on earthworm reproductive success

Soil and topical tests were employed to investigate the effect of two N-nitroso metabolites of RDX (hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine) on earthworm reproduction. The lowest observed effect concentration (LOEC) for cocoon production and hatching was 50mg/kg for both hexahydro-1-nitroso-3,5-dinitro-1,3,5-triazine (MNX) and hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitroso-1,3,5-triazine (TNX) in soil. MNX and TNX also significantly affected cocoon hatching in soil (p<0.001) and in topical tests (p=0.001). The LOECs for cocoon hatching were 1 and 10mg/kg for MNX and TNX in soil, respectively, and 10mg/L in the topical test. Greater than 100mg/kg MNX and TNX completely inhibited cocoon hatching. In soil, the EC20 values for MNX were 8.7 and 8.8mg/kg for cocoon and juvenile production, respectively, compared to 9.2 and 9.1mg/kg for TNX, respectively. The EC20 values for the total number of cocoon hatchlings were 3.1 and 4.7mg/kg for MNX and TNX, respectively, in soil and 4.5 and 3.1mg/L in the topical test. Both MNX and TNX inhibited cocoon production and hatching, suggesting that they may have a negative affect on soil ecosystems at contaminated sites.     

Quantitative evaluation of XAD-8 and XAD-4 resins used in tandem for removing organic solutes from water

The combined XAD-8 and XAD-4 resin procedure for the isolation of dissolved organic solutes from water was found to isolate 85% or more of the organic solutes from Lake Skjervatjern in Norway. Approximately 65% of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was first removed on XAD-8 resin, and then an additional 20% of the DOC was removed on XAD-4 resin. Approximately 15% of the DOC solutes (primarily hydrophilic neutrals) were not sorbed or concentrated by the procedure. Of the 65% of the solutes removed on XAD-8 resin, 40% were fulvic acids, 16% were humic acids, and 9% were hydrophobic neutrals. Approximately 20% of the hydrophilic solutes that pass through the XAD-8 resin were sorbed solutes on the second resin, XAD-4 (i.e., they were hydrophobic relative to the XAD-4 resin). The fraction sorbed on XAD-4 resin was called XAD-4 acids because it represented approximately 85–90% of the hydrophilic XAD-8 acid fraction according to the original XAD-8 fractionation procedure. The recovery of hydrophobic acids (fulvic acids and humic acids) and the hydrophobic neutral fraction from XAD-8 resin was essentially quantitative at 96%, 98%, and 86%, respectively. The recovery of XAD-4 acids from the XAD-4 resin was only about 50%. The exact reason for this moderately low recovery is unknown, but could result from π-π bonding between these organic solutes and the aromatic matrix of XAD-4. The hydrophobic/hydrophilic solute separation on XAD-8 resin for water from background Side A and Side B of the lake was almost identical at 65 and 67%, respectively. This result suggested that both sides of the lake are similar in organic chemical composition even though the DOC variation from side to side is 20%.     

Identifying optimal agricultural countermeasure strategies for a hypothetical contamination scenario using the strategy model

A spatially implemented model designed to assist the identification of optimal countermeasure strategies for radioactively contaminated regions is described. Collective and individual ingestion doses for people within the affected area are estimated together with collective exported ingestion dose. A range of countermeasures are incorporated within the model, and environmental restrictions have been included as appropriate. The model evaluates the effectiveness of a given combination of countermeasures through a cost function which balances the benefit obtained through the reduction in dose with the cost of implementation. The optimal countermeasure strategy is the combination of individual countermeasures (and when and where they are implemented) which gives the lowest value of the cost function. The model outputs should not be considered as definitive solutions, rather as interactive inputs to the decision making process. As a demonstration the model has been applied to a hypothetical scenario in Cumbria (UK). This scenario considered a published nuclear power plant accident scenario with a total deposition of 1.7x10(14), 1.2x10(13), 2.8x10(10) and 5.3x10(9)Bq for Cs-137, Sr-90, Pu-239/240 and Am-241, respectively. The model predicts that if no remediation measures were implemented the resulting collective dose would be approximately 36 000 person-Sv (predominantly from 137Cs) over a 10-year period post-deposition. The optimal countermeasure strategy is predicted to avert approximately 33 000 person-Sv at a cost of approximately 160 million pounds. The optimal strategy comprises a mixture of ploughing, AFCF (ammonium-ferric hexacyano-ferrate) administration, potassium fertiliser application, clean feeding of livestock and food restrictions. The model recommends specific areas within the contaminated area and time periods where these measures should be implemented.