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991.
Michael Dutschke 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(2):275-302
In its Article 2, the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change policymakers gave themselves a long-term dynamic mandate
under uncertainty. Taking the example of forestry activities in developing countries, the present article discusses whether
land-based climate change mitigation measures in the context of compensation mechanisms for human-induced greenhouse gas emissions
are covered under the UNFCCC's ultimate objective. Both the problem of climate change and human intervention act over long,
yet finite timeframes. The article argues for taking a dynamic 100-year timeframe as reference for present-day activities.
It concludes that increasing biotic carbon storage is legitimate for measures that contribute to biodiversity conservation,
as long as it does not serve as a pretext for neglecting technological change. Among all forestry options, the list of priorities
should be avoiding deforestation and devegetation, sustainable forest management, and afforestation. The problem of saturation
can be encountered by the combination of forestry with the increased use of wood products and bioenergy. Concluding, the article
gathers criteria for forest climate activities in the post-2012 regime.
JEL Classification: Q23, Q54; Q57; Q58 相似文献
992.
Baselines for land-use change in the tropics: application to avoided deforestation projects 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Sandra Brown Myrna Hall Ken Andrasko Fernando Ruiz Walter Marzoli Gabriela Guerrero Omar Masera Aaron Dushku Ben DeJong Joseph Cornell 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(6):1001-1026
Although forest conservation activities, particularly in the tropics, offer significant potential for mitigating carbon (C)
emissions, these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena caused by the difficulty in determining key
elements of the project cycle, particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has two main components: the
projected land-use change and the corresponding carbon stocks in applicable pools in vegetation and soil, with land-use change
being the most difficult to address analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging
from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more
complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicit models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic
factors. The three models used for making baseline projections of tropical deforestation at the regional scale are: the Forest
Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use and Carbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD) model.
The models were used to project deforestation in six tropical regions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic
conditions, population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) Santa Cruz State, Bolivia; (3) Paraná State,
Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico; (5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacán, Mexico.
A comparison of all model outputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quite different deforestation baselines.
In general, the simplest FAC model, applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highest amount of forest
loss (four out of six regions) and the LUCS model the least amount of loss (four out of five regions). Based on simulations
of GEOMOD, we found that readily observable physical and biological factors as well as distance to areas of past disturbance
were each about twice as important as either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors (less observable)
in explaining empirical land-use patterns.
We propose from the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps and six tasks can be used to begin developing
credible baselines. We also propose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because, although projections beyond
10 years are feasible, they are likely to be unrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-use change
and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analytic domain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed
project), obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate baseline drivers, and identifying three to four major drivers. In the
second step, a baseline of where deforestation is likely to occur–a potential land-use change (PLUC) map—is produced using
a spatial model such as GEOMOD that uses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation are projected over a 10-year
baseline period based on one of the three models. Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stock
estimates, baseline projections are developed that can be used for project GHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final
step proposes that, at agreed interval (e.g., about 10 years), the baseline assumptions about baseline drivers be re-assessed.
This step reviews the viability of the 10-year baseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g., new
roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potential land-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation
could be re-done at the agreed interval, allowing the deforestation rates and changes in spatial drivers to be incorporated
into a defense of the existing baseline, or the derivation of a new baseline projection. 相似文献
993.
Although international negotiation on the mitigation of climate change is a process of determining burden-sharing rules between countries, there has been no clear agreement on equity principles for burden sharing. During the negotiating process up to the Kyoto Protocol, various proposals were made on such burden-sharing rules, but an agreement on emission targets for Annex I countries was achieved without explicitly agree-ing to any rules. In the next phase of the negotiation, debates on emission targets are likely to shift from those between developed countries to those between all parties to the convention. In such a phase, debates on burden-sharing rules will be revisited. The purpose of this paper is: (1) to determine implicitly a formula for the rule for burden sharing between Annex I countries that was considered to be underlying the emission targets of the Kyoto Protocol, and (2) to examine plausible emission targets and timing of commitments for non-Annex I countries in the future by using the result of the analysis on the Kyoto Protocol. A multi-regression method is used for this purpose. It was concluded that the burden sharing between Annex I countries in the Kyoto Protocol can mostly be explained by three variables: the increase in the rate of CO2 emission during the years 1990 to 2010, the increase in the rate of afforestation between 1990 and 1995, and the GDP per capita at the time of negotiation. The timing of future commitments of developing countries and the levels of targets differ widely, depending on which index or formula is agreed as “equitable”. Some of the developing countries would have to start limiting their emissions within several years if GDP per capita or CO2 per capita were chosen as the burden-sharing indicator. Developing countries would not have to make commitments until the mid-late 21st century if population growth rate were chosen. If the inferred formula of the Kyoto Protocol were applied to developing countries, they would have had to start mild limitation from 1990. 相似文献
994.
995.
Wolfhart Rüdiger 《Die Naturwissenschaften》1970,57(7):331-337
996.
997.
998.
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1000.
Honeybee colonies (Apis mellifera) maintain temperatures of 35-36°C in their brood nest because the brood needs high and constant temperature conditions for optimal development. We show that incubation of the brood at the level of individual honeybees is done by worker bees performing a particular and not yet specified behaviour: such bees raise the brood temperature by pressing their warm thoraces firmly onto caps under which the pupae develop. The bees stay motionless in a characteristic posture and have significantly higher thoracic temperatures than bees not assuming this posture in the brood area. The surface of the brood caps against which warm bees had pressed their thorax were up to 3.2°C warmer than the surrounding area, confirming that effective thermal transfer had taken place. 相似文献