The false alarm/surprise trade-off in weather warnings systems: an expected utility theory perspective

Environment Systems and Decisions - Early warning systems for weather events are becoming widespread as technological capacities develop. For warnings to be effective, they must allow enough lead...     

The influence of lipid and lifestyle factors upon correlations between highly prevalent organochlorine compounds in patients with exocrine pancreatic cancer

We aimed to analyse the influence of cholesterol and triglycerides, and of tobacco, coffee and alcohol consumption upon correlations between serum concentrations of organochlorine compounds (OCs) in patients with exocrine pancreatic cancer (EPC). Incident cases of EPC diagnosed in eastern Spain were prospectively identified (N=144). OCs were analysed by high-resolution gas chromatography with electron-capture detection. A strong correlation was observed between hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and beta-hexachlorocyclohexane (beta-HCH) (Spearman's rho=0.758). beta-HCH showed rho>0.4 with p,p'-DDT, p,p'-DDE, PCB138 and PCB153 (all p<0.001). Some correlations among compounds were slightly affected by tobacco, coffee or alcohol consumption. We observed a striking diversity of correlation patterns by strata of cholesterol and triglycerides. Most correlations were higher in the lowest category of triglycerides than in the lowest category of cholesterol. Most coefficients above 0.7 were seen in the lowest category of triglycerides (e.g., OC pairs p,p'-DDT and HCB, p,p'-DDT and beta-HCH, p,p'-DDE and beta-HCH, or HCB and beta-HCH). Correlations among OCs may be stronger when concentrations of triglycerides are low than when they are high. This is compatible with a dilution in the early phases of cancer and with a concentration effect as triglycerides become lower in the advanced phases of the disease.     

Actinide analysis of a depleted uranium penetrator from a 1999 target site in southern Serbia

Following the detection of 236U in depleted uranium (DU) ammunition used during the Balkans conflict in the 1990s, concern has been expressed about the possibility that other nuclides from the nuclear fuel cycle and, in particular, transuranium nuclides, might be present in this type of ammunition. In this paper, we report the results of uranium and plutonium analyses carried out on a depleted uranium penetrator recovered from a target site in southern Serbia. Our data show the depleted nature of the uranium and confirm the presence of trace amounts of plutonium in the penetrator. The activity concentration of (239+240)PU, at 45.4+/-0.7 Bq kg(-1), is the highest reported to date for any penetrator recovered from the Balkans. This concentration, however, is comparable to that expected to be present naturally in uranium ores and, from a radiological perspective, would only give rise to a very small increase in dose to exposed persons compared to that from the DU itself.     

In vitro toxic effects of heavy metals on fungal growth and phosphate-solubilising abilities of isolates obtained from Phragmites australis rhizosphere

In this research, we evaluated the toxic effect of metal ions on mycelial growth and phosphate-solubilising activity of soil-borne micromycetes isolated from the Phragmites australis rhizosphere using Pikovskaya-agar plates supplemented with four metal concentrations. The diameter growth rate (DGR) decreased as the metal concentration rise for all tested fungi. Trichoderma atroviride had the fastest growth rate (1.48?cm²?day^?1) and was the least susceptible to Al³⁺, Cd²⁺, Cr³⁺, Cu²⁺ and Pb²⁺ with a median effective concentration (MEC₅₀) of 12.19, 0.48, 4.51, 11.44 and 50.05?mM, respectively. Aspergillus japonicus was the most tolerant to Co²⁺, Ni²⁺ and Zn²⁺, with MEC₅₀ values of 3.36, 1.095 and 2.34?mM, respectively. Penicillium italicum was the most tolerant to Cr6⁺ (MEC₅₀?=?0.677?mM). The ability to solubilise phosphate remained, despite the decrease in the DGR, and P. italicum and Penicillium dipodomyicola had the highest Phosphate Solubilisation Indexes (PSIs) at 1.97 and 2.12, respectively. In particular, P. italicum recorded the highest PSI of all the studied isolates at 0.62?mM Cr³⁺ (PSI?=?4.74). A. japonicus and T. atroviride were the most tolerant isolates to all tested metals, which suggests that these isolates are promising candidates for further study with regard to mycoremediation and biofertilisation of metal-polluted soils.     

Joint toxicity of copper and diazinon during embryonic and larval development of the common South American toad,Rhinella arenarum

Copper (Cu) and diazinon are two widely distributed pollutants; they coexist in agro-ecosystems and cause toxicity to wild biota. This study proposes to analyse the joint toxicity of binary mixtures of Cu and diazinon on the early development of the South American toad, Rhinella arenarum by means of a standardised test. Cu was always more toxic than diazinon. Cu was more embryotoxic while the pesticide was more toxic during the larval exposure than during the embryonic period. The different Cu/diazinon mixtures proportions assayed were significantly less toxic than expected by additive effects. Thus, an antagonistic interaction pattern was observed. This pattern was independent of the assayed proportion, the exposure times and the exposure developmental periods. In the risk assessment analysis to establish water quality criteria, the joint toxicity should be considered at different ratios, exposure time and life period for a certain species, in order to preserve wild species.     

Attraction of entomopathogenic nematodes to sugarcane root volatiles under herbivory by a sap-sucking insect

Few systems have been described in which herbivore-induced root volatiles mediate attraction of entomopathogenic nematodes (EPNs), and they only concern root damage inflicted by chewing insects. EPNs, especially Heterorhabditis indica and Steinernema carpocapsae, are potential biological control agents of sugarcane spittlebug (Mahanarva fimbriolata) populations. Here, we investigated the response of these two species of EPNs to sugarcane root volatiles damaged by M. fimbriolata nymphs in a belowground six-arm olfactometer. We also examined changes on root volatile profile in response to herbivory of sugarcane spittlebug nymphs. Results showed that both EPN species did not discriminate between odors of undamaged sugarcane and moistened sand (blank). However, when EPNs were exposed to odors of spittlebug-damaged and undamaged sugarcane roots, both species significantly preferred odors of spittlebug-damaged roots. Headspace collection followed by GC–MS analyses showed no qualitative difference (total of 11 compounds) between volatile profiles of spittlebug-damaged and undamaged sugarcane roots. In contrast to the previous studies involving feeding by root chewing insects, our root volatile analysis did not reveal any up-regulation resulting from sugarcane spittlebug damage, but the down-regulation of the terpenes dihydromyrcenol and β-isomethyl ionone when compared with the profile of undamaged sugarcane roots. Here, we propose alternative explanations for the EPN attraction to spittlebug-damaged roots as it is unlikely that reduced concentrations of the volatiles play a role in this interaction. Further studies are necessary to determine the key compounds of the root volatile emission to enhance biological control efficacy with EPNs against M. fimbriolata in sugarcane.     

Diffusional mass transfer coefficient at the water–sediment interface for wind-induced flow in very shallow lagoons

Very shallow lagoons that are a few centimeters deep are common in the arid Andes of Northern Chile, Argentina, Bolivia and Perú. The dynamics of these lagoons are dominated by the water–sediment interface (WSI) and strong afternoon winds. Although many studies have examined the diffusional mass transfer coefficients (k _t ) of open channel flows, estimates for wind-induced flows are still unknown. The aim of this article is to propose and validate an analytical expression for computing k _t at the WSI for wind-induced flow. The laboratory measurements were conducted in a wind tunnel with a water tank of variable depth located at its downwind end. Natural muddy sediments were placed in the middle of the tank so that the dissolved oxygen (DO) was consumed in the sediments. The diffusional mass transfer coefficient that characterizes the DO uptake in the sediment was obtained from DO micro-profiles measured with an OX-25 Unisense microelectrode. Water velocity profiles were measured with a 2D side-view Sontek acoustic doppler velocimetry (ADV), and the wind shear velocity was computed based on wind velocity profiles that were measured with an Extech hot-wire anemometer. A total of 16 experiments were conducted with different water depths and wind shear stresses. The constants required by the model were determined from these experiments, and the analytical expression was successfully validated by the laboratory observations. The analytical expression obtained for computing k _t was also validated with field observations that were conducted in October, 2012, in Salar del Huasco, Northern Chile (20.274° S, 68.883° W, 3800 m above sea level). The comparison between the observed and predicted values of k _t provides a determination coefficient of r ² = 0.48 and a p value < 0.01. The results show that the value of k _t for wind-induced flow is proportional to the wind shear velocity and the inverse of the Reynolds number of the wind-induced current.