台风灾害气象指数保险相关技术方法初探

气象指数灾害保险是目前全球范围内广泛研究的一种风险转移工具,它可以克服传统的自然灾害保险的局限性,在农业保险领域应用前景广阔。以福建省连江县为例,依据连江县台风灾害及台风活动特征,将能够对连江县造成一定损失的台风分成分别以大风、大雨和大风雨为主导的3类。结合连江站相关气象数据及概率分布建立了广义的台风灾害气象指数,最后构建了保险赔付路线图,以供有关部门参考。     

Methods for Quantifying Variability and Uncertainty in AP-42 Emission Factors: Case Studies for Natural Gas-Fueled Engines

Abstract

Quantitative methods for characterizing variability and uncertainty were applied to case studies of oxides of nitrogen and total organic carbon emission factors for lean-burn natural gas-fueled internal combustion engines. Parametric probability distributions were fit to represent inter-engine variability in specific emission factors. Bootstrap simulation was used to quantify uncertainty in the fitted cumulative distribution function and in the mean emission factor. Some methodological challenges were encountered in analyzing the data. For example, in one instance, five data points were available, with each data point representing a different market share. Therefore, an approach was developed in which parametric distributions were fitted to population-weighted data. The uncertainty in mean emission factors ranges from as little as ~±10% to as much as -90 to 21+180%. The wide range of uncertainty in some emission factors emphasizes the importance of recognizing and accounting for uncertainty in emissions estimates. The skewness in some uncertainty estimates illustrates the importance of using numerical simulation approaches that do not impose restrictive symmetry assumptions on the confidence interval for the mean. In this paper, the quantitative method, the analysis results, and key findings are presented.     

Attitudes of rural population in emergency exposure situations

People growing crops in kitchen gardens eat locally self-produced food and are the subject of growing attention as the potential for a more sustainable development. A survey was carried out in two provinces in northern Italy to gather information on the consumption of local horticultural products, peoples’ expectations of authorities in the case of a nuclear accident and peoples’ behaviour in the absence of official information. Results show that up to 70% of the owners of kitchen gardens possess diets comprised of more than 60% of self-produced vegetables and can be regarded as particular groups of population. In the case of a dispersion of radioactive material, the local population would take advantage of official information on preventive measures to protect farms and local crops from contamination. Results of the survey show differences in the attitude of the population due to age, gender and past experience.     

Spatial distribution of soil radon as a tool to recognize active faulting on an active volcano: the example of Mt. Etna (Italy)

This study concerns measurements of radon and thoron emissions from soil carried out in 2004 on the eastern flank of Mt. Etna, in a zone characterized by the presence of numerous seismogenic and aseismic faults. The statistical treatment of the geochemical data allowed recognizing anomaly thresholds for both parameters and producing distribution maps that highlighted a significant spatial correlation between soil gas anomalies and tectonic lineaments. The seismic activity occurring in and around the study area during 2004 was analyzed, producing maps of hypocentral depth and released seismic energy. Both radon and thoron anomalies were located in areas affected by relatively deep (5-10 km depth) seismic activity, while less evident correlation was found between soil gas anomalies and the released seismic energy. This study confirms that mapping the distribution of radon and thoron in soil gas can reveal hidden faults buried by recent soil cover or faults that are not clearly visible at the surface. The correlation between soil gas data and earthquakes depth and intensity can give some hints on the source of gas and/or on fault dynamics.     

Concentrations of PCDD/PCDF in soil close to a secondary aluminum smelter

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDDs/Fs) were analyzed in samples of the emissions from a secondary aluminum smelter (ALS) and soil samples around the plant. The purpose was to estimate the impact of the emissions on the surrounding environment.PCDD/F soil concentrations were higher in the proximity of the plant, exceeding the limit adopted in Italy in soils for green areas and residential uses and the upper limit of several reference concentrations. The most contaminated sites were less than 500 m from the plant and the dioxin concentration with the distance from the ALS.Principal component analysis (PCA) showed that emissions from the ALS were the source of PCDD/F contamination in the soils closest to the plant. Multivariate data analyses such as PCA are therefore useful to identify sources of emission causing contamination.     

Determination of direct and fugitive PM emissions in a Mediterranean harbour by means of classic and novel tracer methods

Remodelling works are frequent in harbour areas, given that they must adapt to rapidly changing market requirements. Depending on their nature (construction, demolition, etc.), these works may be carried out during long periods of time and thus exert a significant impact on the air quality at the harbours and their surroundings. The air quality at the Valencia harbour was studied during an enlargement project. Four sampling stations aimed to cover the major dust-emitting activities in the harbour. In addition, a sampling campaign was carried out to collect dust materials at their emission sources (e.g., loading and unloading of clinker and petroleum coke, as well as the enlargement works). Differences obtained between PM levels at the monitoring sites were correlated with the distance between sampling stations and enlargement works and/or harbour operations, as well as with the preferential wind direction. In all cases, the days with the highest PM_10 levels were linked to wind directions coinciding with the location of the enlargement works or the clinker and petroleum coke stocks. Classic source apportionment methodologies (PCA and CMB) were applied to the data, but their interpretation was complex due to the similar chemical signatures of PM originating from direct and fugitive emissions from stocked materials (e.g., clinker), and the enlargement works. To overcome this difficulty, a novel non-statistical approach was used to obtain quantitative estimations of the contributions from sources (petroleum coke and clinker), based on the correlation between specific PM components (e.g., carbonaceous species) and source tracers (e.g., V). Finally, a qualitative test using phenolphthalein was devised to identify the presence of clinker on the filters, which provided positive results. This novel tracer approach is thus recommended for harbour authorities.     

Convergence or divergence in desertification risk? Scale-based assessment and policy implications in a Mediterranean country

This paper explores changes (1990–2000) in two environmental indexes with the aim of providing empirical evidence on regional and local convergence in an increasing-impact phenomenon such as Land Degradation (LD) in Italy. Convergence analysis for ESAI (Environmental Sensitive Area Index) and LVI (Land Vulnerability Index) was developed at five different geographical scales. Results indicate that territorial disparities in land vulnerability tend to increase during the investigated period following a defined spatial pattern that depends on land quality, the environmental context and the economic performance of regional systems. Finally, the implications this process has on policy strategies aimed at mitigating desertification risk are discussed.     

The toxicity of sulfamethazine to Daphnia magna and its additivity to other veterinary sulfonamides and trimethoprim

Sulfonamides (SAs), the oldest chemotherapeutic agents used for antimicrobial therapy, still play an important role in veterinary mass treatments. Consequently, traces of these compounds, alone or in combinations, have been repeatedly detected in the environment. Sulfamethazine (SMZ) deserves particular attention not only because it is the most used veterinary SA, but also due to its proven effects on fertility in mice and on thyroid hormone homeostasis in rats. In this study, after evaluating the acute toxicity to Daphnia magna of six veterinary SAs and trimethoprim (TMP), the additivity of SMZ to each other compound was tested using the isobologram method. Two reproduction tests on the same biological model were also performed in order to derive LOEC and NOEC of SMZ. The acute EC₅₀ was in the range 131–270 mg L⁻¹ for all the compounds tested with the exception of sulfaguanidine (EC₅₀ = 3.86 mg L⁻¹). In acute binary tests SMZ showed a complex interaction with sulfaquinoxaline (superadditivity, additivity or subadditivity) at the three different combination ratios tested, simple additivity to TMP and less than additive interaction when paired to the other SAs. LOEC and NOEC of SMZ obtained from reproduction tests were 3.125 and 1.563 mg L⁻¹, respectively. In conclusion, SMZ should not harm the crustacean population at environmentally realistic concentrations. Its toxicity is comparable to that of other systemic SAs, and their binary interactions are less than additive. The same can not be entirely said for enteric SAs, and considering that these compounds are administered at high doses and mostly excreted in unmetabolised form, further evaluation of their impact to the aquatic environment seems advisable.     

Renewable energy sources: conflicts and opportunities in a changing landscape

Regional Environmental Change - Replacement of conventional energy sources with renewables such as solar panels and wind turbines requires adequate land. Impact assessments should be conducted to...     

PBDEs and PCBs in sediments of the Thi Nai Lagoon (Central Vietnam) and soils from its mainland

Concentration and distribution of PCBs, PCB 11, and PBDEs in both surficial sediment and soil samples, taken from a zone subject to recent accelerated development, were investigated to assess the environmental quality and understand both natural and anthropogenic processes that influence contaminant behaviors. Values of PCB and PBDE are in the lower range of those reported in literature, typical of low impacted coastal zones. This could be due to efficient processes of resuspension and removal. Contaminants in the lagoon showed higher concentrations in sediments from sites close to the city and the outfalls of the industrial area, while soils showed maximum values in the northern samples. In addition, congener patterns and statistical analyses suggest the presence of effective degradation processes, especially for PBDEs, with the exception of the most concentrated samples that may indicate a direct input. PCB 11 is a significant component (up to 18%) in most lagoon sediments. Its presence is strongly associated with fine particles, thus the distribution seems to be driven mainly by the system hydrodynamic and does not trace the sources. Due to evaporation, only flooded agricultural soils show a similar relative abundance of this congener.