Genetic diversity and IUCN Red List status

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is an important and widely used tool for conservation assessment. The IUCN uses information about a species’ range, population size, habitat quality and fragmentation levels, and trends in abundance to assess extinction risk. Genetic diversity is not considered, although it affects extinction risk. Declining populations are more strongly affected by genetic drift and higher rates of inbreeding, which can reduce the efficiency of selection, lead to fitness declines, and hinder species’ capacities to adapt to environmental change. Given the importance of conserving genetic diversity, attempts have been made to find relationships between red-list status and genetic diversity. Yet, there is still no consensus on whether genetic diversity is captured by the current IUCN Red List categories in a way that is informative for conservation. To assess the predictive power of correlations between genetic diversity and IUCN Red List status in vertebrates, we synthesized previous work and reanalyzed data sets based on 3 types of genetic data: mitochondrial DNA, microsatellites, and whole genomes. Consistent with previous work, species with higher extinction risk status tended to have lower genetic diversity for all marker types, but these relationships were weak and varied across taxa. Regardless of marker type, genetic diversity did not accurately identify threatened species for any taxonomic group. Our results indicate that red-list status is not a useful metric for informing species-specific decisions about the protection of genetic diversity and that genetic data cannot be used to identify threat status in the absence of demographic data. Thus, there is a need to develop and assess metrics specifically designed to assess genetic diversity and inform conservation policy, including policies recently adopted by the UN's Convention on Biological Diversity Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.     

Predicting microalgae growth and phosphorus removal in cold region waste stabilization ponds using a stochastic modelling approach

A stochastic ecological model with an integrated equilibrium temperature model was developed to predict microalgae growth and phosphorus removal in cold region waste stabilization ponds (WSPs). The model utilized a Monte Carlo simulation to account for parameter uncertainty. The equilibrium temperature model was parameterized using field data collected from two WSPs in Nunavut, Canada, from 2012 to 2014. The equilibrium temperature model provided good agreement with field data on a daily time step. The full model was run using historic (1956–2005) temperature and solar radiation data from five communities (Baker Lake, Cambridge Bay, Coral Harbour, Hall Beach, Resolute) in Nunavut, Canada. The communities represented a range of geographical locations and environmental conditions. Logistic regression on pooled model outputs showed that mean July temperature and mean treatment season temperature (June 1–September 15, ice-free period) provided the best predictors for microalgae growth. They had a predictive success rate of 93 and 88%, respectively. The modelled threshold (50% probability from the Monte Carlo simulation) for microalgae growth was 8.7 and 5.6 °C for the July temperature and mean treatment season temperature, respectively. The logistic regression was applied to each community (except Sanikiluaq) in Nunavut using historic climate data and a probability of microalgae growth was calculated. Based on the model results, soluble phosphorus concentrations consistent with secondary treatment could be achieved if WSP depth is less than 2 m. The model demonstrated a robust method to predict whether a microalgae bloom will occur under a range of model parameters.     

Impact of Dredging on Phosphorus Transport in Agricultural Drainage Ditches of the Atlantic Coastal Plain1

Abstract: Drainage ditches can be a key conduit of phosphorus (P) between agricultural soils of the Atlantic Coastal Plain and local surface waters, including the Chesapeake Bay. This study sought to quantify the effect of a common ditch management practice, sediment dredging, on fate of P in drainage ditches. Sediments from two drainage ditches that had been monitored for seven years and had similar characteristics (flow, P loadings, sediment properties) were sampled (0‐5 cm) after one of the ditches had been dredged, which removed fine textured sediments (clay = 41%) with high organic matter content (85 g/kg) and exposed coarse textured sediments (clay = 15%) with low organic matter content (2.2 g/kg). Sediments were subjected to a three‐phase experiment (equilibrium, uptake, and release) in recirculating 10‐m‐long, 0.2‐m‐wide, and 5‐cm‐deep flumes to evaluate their role as sources and sinks of P. Under conditions of low initial P concentrations in flume water, sediments from the dredged ditch released 13 times less P to the water than did sediments from the ditch that had not been dredged, equivalent to 24 mg dissolved P. However, the sediments from the dredged ditch removed 19% less P (76 mg) from the flume water when it was spiked with dissolved P to approximate long‐term runoff concentrations. Irradiation of sediments to destroy microorganisms revealed that biological processes accounted for up to 30% of P uptake in the coarse textured sediments of the dredged ditch and 18% in the fine textured sediments of the undredged ditch. Results indicate that dredging of coastal plain drainage ditches can potentially impact the P buffering capacity of ditches draining agricultural soils with a high potential for P runoff.     

A relational demography model of workgroup identification: testing the effects of race,race dissimilarity,racial identification,and communication behavior

This study tested a relational demography model of workgroup identification. We theorized that early in workgroup formation, (a) racial identification would moderate the influence of racial dissimilarity on member communication behavior (frequency and length of verbal participation) during a group task, (b) member communication behaviors would mediate the effect of racial dissimilarity on workgroup identification, and that (c) these effects would be affected non‐symmetrically by racial group membership (White, Black). This model was tested among a sample of 211 undergraduates (113 White and 98 Black), working in 43 temporary workgroups. Whites' racial identification moderated the relationship between racial dissimilarity and member communication behaviors, which in turn partially mediated the effect of racial dissimilarity on workgroup identification, generally consistent with our model. Among Black workgroup members support for our model was limited. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Monitoring nitrogen accumulation in mosses in central European forests

In order to assess whether nitrogen (N) loads in mosses reflect different land uses, 143 sites in North Rhine-Westphalia, the Weser-Ems Region and the Euro Region Nissa were sampled between 2000 and 2005. The data were analysed statistically with available surface information on land use and forest conditions. N bioaccumulation in mosses in the Weser-Ems Region with high densities of agricultural land use and livestock exceeded the concentrations in the more industrialised Euro Region Nissa. In all three study areas agricultural and livestock spatial densities were found to be positively correlated with N bioaccumulation in mosses. In North Rhine-Westphalia, the N concentrations in mosses was also moderately correlated with N concentrations in leaves and needles of forest trees. The moss method proved useful to assess the spatial patterns of N bioaccumulation due to land use.     

A comparison of simulated and observed ozone mixing ratios for the summer of 1998 in Western Europe

This study describes and evaluates the newly developed European scale Eulerian chemistry transport model CHIMERE-continental. The model is designed for seasonal simulations and real time forecasts without the use of super-computers. For the purpose of model evaluation simulated ozone mixing ratios for the period between 1 May 1998 and 30 September 1998 are compared to observational data from 115 European surface sites. In order to facilitate the interpretation of future forecasts a statistic is established to estimate the reliability of a simulated pollution level. Besides this, the comparison is done by means of time series, scatter plots, a spectral analysis and the calculation of RMS-errors and biases of the model results corresponding to each observation site. It turns out that the mean RMS-error of the simulated daily maximum ozone mixing ratio for the sites considered a priori as well suited for a model comparison is about 10 ppb. For the same period but a reduced number of sites observed concentrations of NO₂ and ethene are compared to simulated values. Difficulties encountered with the representativeness of observations when trying to evaluate a mesoscale air pollution model are discussed.     

Klima wandel und Malaria

Goal and Scope

The coastal zones of Lower Saxony (Germany) are former malaria regions. Malaria had finally become extinct in the early 1950s, and subsequently related scientific investigations declined. But from that time until nowadays, the vector in the form of Anopheles mosquitoes has still been present in Lower Saxony. Thus, the question arises, whether a new autochthon transmission could take place due to the monthly mean temperatures of the recent years. Answering this question was one goal of the investigation at hand. Another one was to examine the spatial and temporal structure of potential transmissions in respect to the predicted increase of the air temperatures according to the IPCC scenarios.

Methods

Current information about anophelines and their characteristics within Germany, such as details on historical incidences, breeding preferences, longevity or distribution of the respective species, were collected by literature research. Further, measurement and incidence data had to be collected and processed: temperature values were provided by the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), and recent findings of Anopheles were supplied by the former Niedersächsisches Landesamt für Ökologie (NLÖ) as a data bank. Then temperature maps were calculated for the three periods (1947–1960, 1961–1990, 1985–2004) by means of Kriging. To model areas at risk, the transmission potential for a new vivax malaria spread in respect to temperature was computed using the Basic Reproduction Rate (R₀) formula. It provides the average number of secondary infections produced when a single infected individual is introduced into a potential host population in which each member is susceptible.

Results

The computations corroborate a climate warming between the 30-years interval from 1961 to 1990 and the period from 1985 to 2004. According to the rise of the air temperature as predicted by the IPCC scenarios, the spatial pattern of potential malaria outbreak was calculated for 2020, 2060 an 2100. To this end, for each of these years a best-case-scenario with the lowest reasonable temperature increases (+0.3°C, +0.9°C, +1.4°C) and a worst-case-scenario implying the highest plausible temperature rise (+0.9°C, +3.3°C, +5.8°C) were assumed. While in 2020 the maximum duration of the transmission risk is estimated to last four months, in 2100 the vivax transmission will be likely from May until October.

Discussion

Correlated with the higher monthly mean temperature values, the risk of a vivax transmission is increasing as temperature is the determining variable of the mathematical model. Therefore Lower Saxony is at risk of a new outbreak of vivax malaria assuming no other risk factors are of relevance.

Conclusions

The study could demonstrate that most parts of the country lie within a transmission zone with a duration of two months. The areas containing the highest risk with a transmission length of three months are located around Nordhorn and Hameln, and within the rectangle of Celle, Hannover, Helmstedt and Wolfsburg. These areas match with recent Anopheles larvae finding by the NLÖ, thus, only the pathogen is lacking for a successful transmission. And as Germany is not an endemic malaria zone, the pathogen can enter the country most likely by infected people or imported mosquitoes that transport it in their guts.

Recommendations and Perspectives

The results should be understood as a request for more comprehensive investigations in that field. This would be an essential basis for a successful risk monitoring and precautionary management. Although the chances of a new endemic malaria disease in Germany seem to be considerably low today, it would be better to be prepared than to be suddenly faced with the unexpected.     

Life cycle assessment part 1: framework, goal and scope definition, inventory analysis, and applications

Sustainable development requires methods and tools to measure and compare the environmental impacts of human activities for the provision of goods and services (both of which are summarized under the term "products"). Environmental impacts include those from emissions into the environment and through the consumption of resources, as well as other interventions (e.g., land use) associated with providing products that occur when extracting resources, producing materials, manufacturing the products, during consumption/use, and at the products' end-of-life (collection/sorting, reuse, recycling, waste disposal). These emissions and consumptions contribute to a wide range of impacts, such as climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, tropospheric ozone (smog) creation, eutrophication, acidification, toxicological stress on human health and ecosystems, the depletion of resources, water use, land use, and noise-among others. A clear need, therefore, exists to be proactive and to provide complimentary insights, apart from current regulatory practices, to help reduce such impacts. Practitioners and researchers from many domains come together in life cycle assessment (LCA) to calculate indicators of the aforementioned potential environmental impacts that are linked to products-supporting the identification of opportunities for pollution prevention and reductions in resource consumption while taking the entire product life cycle into consideration. This paper, part 1 in a series of two, introduces the LCA framework and procedure, outlines how to define and model a product's life cycle, and provides an overview of available methods and tools for tabulating and compiling associated emissions and resource consumption data in a life cycle inventory (LCI). It also discusses the application of LCA in industry and policy making. The second paper, by Pennington et al. (Environ. Int. 2003, in press), highlights the key features, summarises available approaches, and outlines the key challenges of assessing the aforementioned inventory data in terms of contributions to environmental impacts (life cycle impact assessment, LCIA).     

Solving the United States National Park overflight controversy

By mid-1990 the National Park Service (NPS) must present to Congress recommendations for managing overflights of at least ten national parks. The authors examine the potential role of formal negotiation in setting overflight policy in these parks by reviewing the overflight controversy at Grand Canyon National Park (GCNP). Regulations controlling overflights of the GCNP are only now being implemented after a 17-year conflict that culminated in a congressionally mandated solution. The authors review this controversy and find that, contrary to common perception, the number of park visitors bothered by overflights is not small but roughly equals the number of airborne visitors (up to 450,000 per year). On the basis of this investigation, the authors determine that formal negotiation would have been an appropriate policy-making process because of the clearly defined and limited number of parties and issues involved. Considering the number of park visitors that will continue to be affected by this issue, the authors conclude that formal negotiations should be considered for overflight problems involving other parks. Such negotiations should be park-specific. Differences in park size, extent of the problem, and parties involved would prohibit park-wide negotiations.This article has been adapted from Tourist Flights over the Grand Canyon: The Potential for Negotiated Solutions to Similar Problems, Analysis and Management, October 30, 1987. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors; they are not meant to represent the views of the organizations with which the authors are associated.