A Real Options Approach to the Valuation of a Forestry Investment

The theory of real options is used to model the optimal tree harvesting decision. The value of the option to harvest is estimated using a dynamic programming approach and a general numerical solution technique suitable for any type of stochastic process for prices. The conditions under which the optimal harvest time is independent of price are examined. In addition, the impact of assuming future lumber prices are mean reverting is considered. It is found that option value and optimal cutting time are significantly different under the mean reversion assumption compared to geometric Brownian motion.     

Speciated arsenic in air: measurement methodology and risk assessment considerations

Accurate measurement of arsenic (As) in air is critical to providing a more robust understanding of arsenic exposures and associated human health risks. Although there is extensive information available on total arsenic in air, less is known on the relative contribution of each arsenic species. To address this data gap, the authors conducted an in-depth review of available information on speciated arsenic in air. The evaluation included the type of species measured and the relative abundance, as well as an analysis of the limitations of current analytical methods. Despite inherent differences in the procedures, most techniques effectively separated arsenic species in the air samples. Common analytical techniques such as inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and/or hydride generation (HG)- or quartz furnace (GF)-atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS) were used for arsenic measurement in the extracts, and provided some of the most sensitive detection limits. The current analysis demonstrated that, despite limited comparability among studies due to differences in seasonal factors, study duration, sample collection methods, and analytical methods, research conducted to date is adequate to show that arsenic in air is mainly in the inorganic form. Reported average concentrations of As(III) and As(V) ranged up to 7.4 and 10.4 ng/m3, respectively, with As(V) being more prevalent than As(III) in most studies. Concentrations of the organic methylated arsenic compounds are negligible (in the pg/m3 range). However because of the variability in study methods and measurement methodology, the authors were unable to determine the variation in arsenic composition as a function of source or particulate matter (PM) fraction. In this work, the authors include the implications of arsenic speciation in air on potential exposure and risks. The authors conclude that it is important to synchronize sample collection, preparation, and analytical techniques in order to generate data more useful for arsenic inhalation risk assessment, and a more robust documentation of quality assurance/quality control (QA/QC) protocols is necessary to ensure accuracy, precision, representativeness, and comparability.     

Perceptions of disorder: Contributions of neighborhood characteristics to subjective perceptions of disorder

Theoretical explanations and empirical evidence of how disorder is perceived and its relation to independently observed measures of disorder are rare. In recent work, Sampson and Raudenbush [2004. Seeing disorder: Neighborhood stigma and the social construction of “Broken Windows”. Social Psychology Quarterly, 67(4), 319–342] investigated how individuals form perceptions of disorder and found that perceptions of disorder in Chicago neighborhoods are shaped not only by observable conditions of disorder, but also by neighborhoods’ racial and socioeconomic composition. In this paper, we investigate the bases for perceiving disorder with data from Baltimore using a methodology similar to that used by Sampson and Raudenbush (2004). Using surveys, systematic social observations, census data, and police records to investigate variations in individual perceptions of disorder at the individual and neighborhood levels, this study, consistent with the literature, finds that visual cues of disorder are not unambiguous and that perceptions of disorder are based not only on neighborhood observed disorder but also on individual characteristics of residents and neighborhood social structure. Additionally, our findings indicate that neighborhood poverty and not neighborhood racial composition affects perceptions of disorder in Baltimore. The fact that these findings are in contrast to the findings in Chicago suggests that the influence of racial segregation on perception of disorder is imbedded in the larger historical context.     

Ecological changes and local knowledge in a giant honey bee (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Apis dorsata</Emphasis> F.) hunting community in Palawan,Philippines

One of the traditional livelihood practices of indigenous Tagbanuas in Palawan, Philippines is wild honey hunting and gathering from the giant honey bee (Apis dorsata F.). In order to analyze the linkages of the social and ecological systems involved in this indigenous practice, we conducted spatial, quantitative, and qualitative analyses on field data gathered through mapping of global positioning system coordinates, community surveys, and key informant interviews. We found that only 24% of the 251 local community members surveyed could correctly identify the giant honey bee. Inferential statistics showed that a lower level of formal education strongly correlates with correct identification of the giant honey bee. Spatial analysis revealed that mean NDVI of sampled nesting tree areas has dropped from 0.61 in the year 1988 to 0.41 in 2015. However, those who correctly identified the giant honey bee lived in areas with high vegetation cover. Decreasing vegetation cover limits the presence of wild honey bees and this may also be limiting direct experience of the community with wild honey bees. However, with causality yet to be established, we recommend conducting further studies to concretely model feedbacks between ecological changes and local knowledge.     

Long-term changes in fish mercury levels in the historically impacted English-Wabigoon River system (Canada)

The English-Wabigoon River system in Northwestern Ontario, Canada, was one of the most heavily mercury-contaminated waterways in the world due to historical discharges in the 1960s from a chlor-alkali plant. This study examines long-term (1970-2010) monitoring data to assess temporal trends in mercury contamination in Walleye, Northern Pike and Lake Whitefish, three species important for sport and subsistence fishing in this region, using dynamic linear modeling and piecewise regression. For all lakes and species, there is a significant decline (36-94%) in mercury concentrations through time; however, there is evidence that this decline is either slowing down or levelling off. Concentrations in the English-Wabigoon fish are elevated, and may still present a potential health risk to humans consuming fish from this system. Various biotic and abiotic factors are examined as possible explanations to slowing rates of decline in mercury concentrations observed in the mid-1980s.     

Impact of Channelization on Oyster Production: A Hydrodynamic-Oyster Population Model for Galveston Bay, Texas

A hydrodynamic-oyster population dynamics model was developed to assess the effect of a change in ship channel configuration under different freshwater inflow regimes and different future hydrologies on oyster (Crassostrea virginica) populations in Galveston Bay, Texas. The population dynamics model includes the effects of environmental conditions, predators, and the oyster parasite Perkinsus marinus on oyster populations. The hydrodynamic model includes the effects of wind stress, river runoff, tides, and oceanic exchange on the circulation of the Bay. Simulations were run for low, mean, and high freshwater inflow conditions under the present (1993) hydrology and predicted hydrologies for 2024 and 2049 that include anticipated water diversion projects to satisfy the freshwater demands of population growth in metropolitan Houston, Texas. Simulation results show that oyster biomass was predicted to increase after enlargement of the ship channel. Oyster biomass is expected to increase on about 53% of total reef acreage when averaged over a 50-yr time span. Oyster reef acreage characterized by increased biomass after channel enlargement increases moderately under the present hydrology and the 2049 hydrology, but decreases slightly in 2024. Lower biomass in 2024 is due to reduced freshwater inflow and increased saltwater intrusion that pushes the optimal areas for oyster growth somewhat farther upbay than in 2049. Declines in oyster biomass, noted in most simulations in downbay reaches, were more than balanced by increased oyster biomass upbay. The differential between upbay and downbay reefs can be explained by an increase in mortality from Perkinsus marinus downbay and saltwater intrusion upbay that expands the area characterized by moderate salinities. The 20th century history of Galveston Bay is one of expansion of isohaline structure and increased oyster production as a result of anthropogenic modification of bay physiography. The salinity gradient of the 1990s, however, is not in equilibrium with the distribution of hard substrate required for oyster growth, that reflects an earlier equilibrium with the pre-1900s hydrodynamics. Increased saltwater intrusion is normally disadvantageous to oyster populations; but, in this case, channel enlargement further expands the salinity gradient upbay and outward (east and west) from the channel. As a result, in most years, oyster biomass is increased because moderate salinities cover more of the pre-1900s reef tracts where hard substrate is plentiful.     

spatial analysis of herbicide decay rates in louisiana

This analysis presents results based on a five-yearstudy recently supported by the Louisiana Departmentof Transportation and Development (DOTD) in which theacute toxicity, fate and effect of herbicide mixtureson human health and the environment were assessed. Three sites were routinely sprayed by DOTD to killweeds along the roadsides. Two herbicide mixtures wereused, 2,4-D and Roundup, and Garlon 3A and Roundup.Water, vegetation, soil and sediment samples werecollected quarterly for three years and were analyzedfor pesticide content to study the fate and impact ofherbicides in the environment. Results indicate acorrelation between soil type, herbicide type, andpersistence of the herbicide in the environment. Usingthe correlations found in these data, spatial analysisidentified areas where herbicide use may potentiallycause surface water and sediment contamination, basedon soil composition/properties, type of herbicideapplied, and proximity of water bodies to sprayed areas.     

A century of increasing pine density and associated shifts in understory plant strategies

We analyzed one of the longest-term ecological data sets to evaluate how forest overstory structure is related to herbaceous understory plant strategies in a ponderosa pine forest. Eighty-two permanent 1-m2 chart quadrats that were established as early as 1912 were remeasured in 2007. We reconstructed historical forest structure using dendrochronological techniques. Ponderosa pine basal area increased from an average of 4 m2/ha in the early 1900s to 29 m2/ha in 2007. Understory plant foliar cover declined by 21%, species richness declined by two species per square meter, and functional diversity also declined. The relative cover of C4 graminoids decreased by 18% and C3 graminoids increased by 19%. Herbaceous plant species with low leaf and fine root nitrogen concentrations, low specific leaf area, high leaf dry matter content, large seed mass, low specific root length, short maximum height, and early flowering date increased in relative abundance in sites where pine basal area increased the most. Overall, we observed a long-term shift in composition toward more conservative shade- and stress-tolerant herbaceous species. Our analysis of temporal changes in plant strategies provides a general framework for evaluating compositional and functional changes in terrestrial plant communities.     

Assessing stream restoration effectiveness at reducing nitrogen export to downstream waters

The degradation of headwater streams is common in urbanized coastal areas, and the role these streams play in contributing to downstream pollution is a concern among natural resource managers and policy makers. Thus, many urban stream restoration efforts are increasingly focused on reducing the downstream flux of pollutants. In regions that suffer from coastal eutrophication, it is unclear whether stream restoration does in fact reduce nitrogen (N) flux to downstream waters and, if so, by how much and at what cost. In this paper, we evaluate whether stream restoration implemented to improve water quality of urban and suburban streams in the Chesapeake Bay region, USA, is effective at reducing the export of N in stream flow to downstream waters. We assessed the effectiveness of restored streams positioned in the upland vs. lowland regions of Coastal Plain watershed during both average and stormflow conditions. We found that, during periods of low discharge, lowland streams that receive minor N inputs from groundwater or bank seepage reduced in-stream N fluxes. Furthermore, lowland streams with the highest N concentrations and lowest discharge were the most effective. During periods of high flow, only those restoration projects that converted lowland streams to stream-wetland complexes seemed to be effective at reducing N fluxes, presumably because the design promoted the spillover of stream flow onto adjacent floodplains and wetlands. The observed N-removal rates were relatively high for stream ecosystems, and on the order of 5% of the inputs to the watershed. The dominant forms of N entering restored reaches varied during low and high flows, indicating that N uptake and retention were controlled by distinctive processes during different hydrological conditions. Therefore, in order for stream restoration to effectively reduce N fluxes exported to downstream waters, restoration design should include features that enhance the processing and retention of different forms of N, and for a wide range of flow conditions. The use of strategic designs that match the dominant attributes of a stream such as position in the watershed, influence of groundwater, dominant flow conditions, and N concentrations is crucial to assure the success of restoration.