NitroGenius: a nitrogen decision support system. A game to develop the optimal policy to solve the Dutch nitrogen pollution problem

A nitrogen decision support system in the form of a game (NitroGenius) was developed for the Second International Nitrogen Conference. The aims were to: i) improve understanding among scientists and policy makers about the complexity of nitrogen pollution problems in an area of intensive agricultural, industrial, and transportation activity (The Netherlands); and ii) search for optimal policy solutions to prevent pollution effects at lowest economic and social costs. NitroGenius includes a model of nitrogen flows at relevant spatial and temporal scales including emissions of ammonia and nitrogen oxides and contamination of surface- and groundwaters. NitroGenius also includes an economic model describing relationships for important sectors and impacts of different nitrogen control measures on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), unemployment, energy use, and environmental costs. About 50 teams played NitroGenius during the Second International Nitrogen Conference. The results show that careful planning and selection of abatement options can solve Dutch nitrogen problems at reasonable cost.     

The Steubenville comprehensive air monitoring program (SCAMP): associations among fine particulate matter, co-pollutants, and meteorological conditions

We determined 24-hr average ambient concentrations of PM2.5 and its ionic and carbonaceous components in Steubenville, OH, between May 2000 and May 2002. We also determined daily average gaseous co-pollutant concentrations, meteorological conditions, and pollen and mold spore counts. Data were analyzed graphically and by linear regression and time series models. Multiple-day episodes of elevated fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations often occurred during periods of locally high temperature (especially during summer), high pressure, or low wind speed (especially during winter) and generally ended with the passage of a frontal system. After removing autocorrelation, we observed statistically significant positive associations between concentrations of PM2.5 and concentrations of CO, NOx, and SO2. Associations with NOx and CO exhibited significant seasonal dependencies, with the strongest correlations during fall and winter. NOx, CO, SO2, O3, temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed were all significant predictors of PM2.5 concentration in a time-series model with external regressors, which successfully accounted for 79% of the variance in log-transformed daily PM2.5 concentrations. Coefficient estimates for NOx and temperature varied significantly by season. The results provide insight that may be useful in the development of future PM2.5 reduction strategies for Steubenville. Additionally, they demonstrate the need for PM epidemiology studies in Steubenville (and elsewhere) to carefully consider the potential confounding effects of gaseous co-pollutants, such as CO and NOx, and their seasonally dependent associations with PM2.5.     

Improvement of the Bag-Mediated Filtration System for Sampling Wastewater and Wastewater-Impacted Waters

Environmental surveillance of poliovirus (PV) plays an important role in the global program for eradication of wild PV. The bag-mediated filtration system (BMFS) was first developed in 2014 and enhances PV surveillance when compared to the two-phase grab method currently recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). In this study, the BMFS design was improved and tested for its usability in wastewater and wastewater-impacted surface waters in Nairobi, Kenya. Modifications made to the BMFS included the size, color, and shape of the collection bags, the filter housing used, and the device used to elute the samples from the filters. The modified BMFS concentrated 3–10 L down to 10 mL, which resulted in an effective volume assayed (900–3000 mL) that was 6–20 times greater than the effective volume assayed for samples processed by the WHO algorithm (150 mL). The system developed allows for sampling and in-field virus concentration, followed by transportation of the filter for further analysis with simpler logistics than the current methods. This may ultimately reduce the likelihood of false-negative samples by increasing the effective volume assayed compared to samples processed by the WHO algorithm, making the BMFS a valuable sampling system for wastewater and wastewater-impacted surface waters.     

Unruly pathogens: eliciting values for environmental risk in the context of heterogeneous expert knowledge

This paper examines some of the theoretical and methodological issues arising from the process of conceptualising and eliciting values for environmental risk in the context of heterogeneous expert knowledge. Drawing on the experience of a recent research project examining the relationship between livestock farming systems and microbial watercourse pollution the paper reflects critically upon efforts to develop an interdisciplinary assessment of the factors that may affect the loss of potential pathogens from agricultural land to water courses as the basis for targeting high risk fields and farms. The paper describes the procedures for designing the natural and cultural parameters that surround microbial risks and the issues that are raised for making whole system assessments workable based on contrasting and unstable systems of disciplinary insight. Situated within claims about the need for generating reliable and widely applicable assessments of environmental risk the paper suggests that interdisciplinary working raises important issues about the role of ‘uncertain’ knowledge in the management of ‘known’ risks.     

Patterns of Area Sensitivity in Grassland-Nesting Birds

Abstract: Between 1995 and 1997, we studied breeding birds in fragments of native tallgrass prairie in southwestern Missouri to determine the effect of habitat fragmentation on grassland bird populations. Data on density and nesting success collected in 13 prairie fragments of various sizes revealed three levels of area sensitivity. The most area-sensitive species, Greater Prairie-Chicken ( Tympanuchus cupido ), was absent from small prairie fragments. An intermediate form of area sensitivity was apparent in only one species, Henslow's Sparrow ( Ammodramus henslowii ), which occurred in lower densities in small than in large prairie fragments. Based on census (i.e., distributional) data, only those two species were area-sensitive (i.e., negatively affected by habitat fragmentation) in southwestern Missouri. A species can be sensitive not only on a distributional level, however, but also by having lower nesting success in small than in large prairie fragments. The Dickcissel ( Spiza americana ) was the only species that was area-sensitive on such a demographic level. These data indicate that we cannot rely solely on census data to describe the sensitivity of grassland-nesting species to habitat fragmentation, but that we also need to investigate demographic data (e.g., nesting success). Whereas it has previously been shown that density measures of forest-nesting birds do not reliably reflect nesting success in habitat fragments of various sizes, ours is the first study that describes this pattern for grassland-nesting species.     

The Driver Behaviour Questionnaire as a predictor of accidents: a meta-analysis

Introduction

Through a meta-analysis, this study investigated the relation of errors and violations from the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) to accident involvement.

Method

We identified 174 studies using the DBQ, and a correlation of self-reported accidents with errors could be established in 32 samples and with violations in 42 samples.

Results

The results showed that violations predicted accidents with an overall correlation of .13 when based on zero-order effects reported in tabular form, and with an overall correlation of .07 for effects reported in multivariate analysis, in tables reporting only significant effects, or in the text of a study. Errors predicted accidents with overall correlations of .10 and .06, respectively. The meta-analysis also showed that errors and violations correlated negatively with age and positively with exposure, and that males reported fewer errors and more violations than females. Supplementary analyses were conducted focusing on the moderating role of age, and on predicting accidents prospectively and retrospectively. Potential sources of bias are discussed, such as publication bias, measurement error, and consistency motif.

Impact on Industry

The DBQ is a prominent measurement scale to examine drivers’ self-reported aberrant behaviors. The present study provides information about the validity of the DBQ and therefore has strong relevance for researchers and road safety practitioners who seek to obtain insight into driving behaviors of a population of interest.     

EXPORT COEFFICIENT MODELING TO ASSESS PHOSPHORUS LOADING IN AN URBAN WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: An export coefficient modeling approach was used to assess the influence of land use on phosphorus loading to a Southern Ontario stream. A model was constructed for the 1995–1996 water year and calibrated within ± 3 percent of the observed mean concentration of total phosphorus. It was found that runoff from urban areas contributed most to the loading of phosphorus to the stream. When the model was assessed by running it for the 1977–1978 water year, using water quality and land use data collected independently, agreement within ± 7 percent was obtained. The model was then used to forecast the impact of future urban development proposed for the watershed, in terms of phosphorus loading, and to evaluate the reduction in loading resulting from several urban best management practices (BMP). It was determined that phosphorus removal will have to be applied to all the urban runoff from the watershed to appreciably reduce stream phosphorus concentration. Of the BMP designs assessed, an infiltration pond system resulted in the greatest phosphorus load reduction, 50 percent from the 1995–1996 baseline.     

The impact of economic activity in Asturias on greenhouse gas emissions: consequences for environmental policy within the Kyoto Protocol framework

Climate change is one of the major worldwide environmental concerns. It is especially the case in many developed countries, where the greenhouse gas emissions responsible for this change are mainly concentrated. For the first time, the Kyoto Protocol includes an international agreement for the reduction of the net emissions of these gases. To fulfil this agreement measures designed to reduce or limit current emissions have to be brought into force. Consequently, fears have arisen about possible consequences on competitiveness and future development of manufacturing activities and the need for support mechanisms for the affected sectors is obvious. In this paper, we carry out a study of the emissions of gases responsible for climate change in Asturias (Spain), a region with an important economic presence of sectors with intensive emissions of CO(2), the chief greenhouse gas. To be precise, in the first place, the volumes of direct emissions of the said gases in 1995 were calculated, showing that the sectors most affected by the Kyoto Protocol in Asturias are iron and steel and electricity production. Secondly, input-output analysis was applied to determine the direct and indirect emissions and the direct, indirect and induced emissions of the different production sectors, respectively. The results derived from the direct and indirect emissions analysis and their comparison with the results of the former allow us to reach some conclusions and environmental policy implications.     

The Problem of Common Land: Towards Stakeholder Governance

This paper examines the current governance of common land with the intention of updating a story last examined in detail in studies in the late 1980s. In addition, the paper draws on recent conceptualizations of stakeholders and governance. A brief history of common land shows that governance systems are highly localized and dependent on custom and practice. Such a dependence suggests the need for governance which is based on the incorporation of stakeholders using consensus building approaches. The paper suggests that local governance systems are crucial to the successful implementation of sustainable management practices but that this may be overlooked by land managers and policy makers. Consequently, comprehensive national legislation for common land is not a viable option but legislation can play a valuable role in particular circumstances. The need to give further consideration to the role of legislation and an appropriate policy framework for commons within the context of stakeholder governance is particularly important given the significance of common land for agriculture, nature conservation, landscape, heritage and recreation across England and Wales.