Use of structured expert judgment to forecast invasions by bighead and silver carp in Lake Erie

Identifying which nonindigenous species will become invasive and forecasting the damage they will cause is difficult and presents a significant problem for natural resource management. Often, the data or resources necessary for ecological risk assessment are incomplete or absent, leaving environmental decision makers ill equipped to effectively manage valuable natural resources. Structured expert judgment (SEJ) is a mathematical and performance‐based method of eliciting, weighting, and aggregating expert judgments. In contrast to other methods of eliciting and aggregating expert judgments (where, for example, equal weights may be assigned to experts), SEJ weights each expert on the basis of his or her statistical accuracy and informativeness through performance measurement on a set of calibration variables. We used SEJ to forecast impacts of nonindigenous Asian carp (Hypophthalmichthys spp.) in Lake Erie, where it is believed not to be established. Experts quantified Asian carp biomass, production, and consumption and their impact on 4 fish species if Asian carp were to become established. According to experts, in Lake Erie Asian carp have the potential to achieve biomass levels that are similar to the sum of biomasses for several fishes that are harvested commercially or recreationally. However, the impact of Asian carp on the biomass of these fishes was estimated by experts to be small, relative to long term average biomasses, with little uncertainty. Impacts of Asian carp in tributaries and on recreational activities, water quality, or other species were not addressed. SEJ can be used to quantify key uncertainties of invasion biology and also provide a decision‐support tool when the necessary information for natural resource management and policy is not available. El Uso de Juicio Experto Estructurado para Predecir Invasiones de Carpas Asiáticas en el Lago Erie     

Functional variation of sperm morphology in sticklebacks

Some theoretical models of sperm competition make the assumption that in fish species with external fertilisation, sperm length relates positively to swimming speed at the expense of sperm longevity. Few studies have tested this assumption. We used the three-spined stickleback, Gasterosteus aculeatus L., to study functional sperm morphology. In this study, the relationship between males’ mean sperm length and fertilisation rate was investigated in vitro in a non-competitive situation. Fertilisation at different time points after sperm release was taken into account, and sperm morphology was quantified from scanning electron microscopy images. The time series of artificial fertilisations demonstrated that males which produced sperm with a longer tail fertilised faster, but their sperm had a shorter lifespan (or activity period). It was further suggested that males that produced sperm with a larger midpiece had greater fertilisation chances later on in the fertilisation process. Thus, in sticklebacks, there exists functional variation in sperm morphology, and sperm tail length is traded off against sperm longevity (or activity).     

Detection and enumeration of colonic mucosal cells in amniotic fluid using a colon epithelial-specific monoclonal antibody

Since its introduction, prenatal diagnosis of chromosomal and metabolic disorder by mid-trimester amniocentesis has relied upon the use of a mixture of fetal cells obtained from amniotic fluid. Little knowledge has been gained in the sorting of these cells for diagnosis of tissue-specific disorders. In an attempt to determine the contribution of fetal colonic mucosal cells to the overall amniocyte population, we used the colonic epithelial-specific monoclonal antibody (MC-Ab) 7E₁₂H₁₂, IgM isotype. Specimens of the small intestine, colon, buccal mucosa, kidney, urinary bladder, and umbilical cord were obtained from electively aborted normal fetuses of 12–28 weeks' gestation. All of these specimens were examined with 7E₁₂H₁₂ by the immunoperoxidase technique. The MC-Ab reacted with the colonic epithelial cells but not with any of the other tissues. In addition, 40 amniotic fluid samples obtained from women between 16 and 18 weeks of gestation, who underwent amniocentesis because of advanced maternal age, were tested using a fluorescent activated cell sorter. Among the amniotic fluid specimens examined, 18·4 ± 10·3 percent cells reacted with 7E₁₂H₁₂. Double immunofluorescence studies revealed that all Mc-Ab-stained cells contained secretory component, confirming that they were epithelial in origin. All fetuses whose amniotic fluid was analysed had normal karyotypes and amniotic fluid alpha-fetoprctein levels that were also normal. This study demonstrates that cell-specific Mc-Ab can be used to detect colon cells in the amniotic fluid and that colon cells contribute significant numbers in the mixture of amniotic fluid cells. This technique could be helpful in the prenatal diagnosis of disorders in which the flow of amniotic fluid through the fetal intestine is impaired, such as cystic fibrosis, imperforate anus, Hirschsprung aganglionic megacolon, and intestinal atresia.     

First-trimester diagnosis of Bartsocas–Papas syndrome (BPS) by transvaginal ultrasound: case report and review of the literature

Initially described in 1972, Bartsocas–Papas syndrome (BPS) is an autosomal recessively inherited disorder combining multiple pterygia, ankyloblepharon, cleft lip and palate, filiform bands between the jaws, syndactyly, and other anomalies. Although described as lethal, review of the literature reveals three individuals who survived into childhood with this condition. We describe a fourth surviving patient and what we believe to be the first prenatal diagnosis of BPS in the first trimester. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Of timelines and timeliness: lessons from Typhoon Haiyan in early disaster response

Typhoon Haiyan struck the Philippines on 8 November 2013 with maximum sustained winds of 235 kilometres per hour, adversely affecting at least 11 million people and displacing some 673,000 in the central regions of the country. The disaster clearly overwhelmed the Philippine government despite its seemingly well‐crafted disaster management plan. Using timelines of different organisations, this paper identifies gaps in the government's response, mainly due to its failure in coordinating and managing relief operations, which adversely affected its effectiveness and efficiency in the delivery of critical goods and services following the disaster. The paper also demonstrates how non‐governmental organisations (NGOs), the United Nations, foreign governments and other organisations provided assistance, mainly through aid niching, to cover the government's shortcomings. The paper recommends a paradigm shift in the government's disaster response by integrating collaborative arrangements between government agencies and NGOs, and giving local governments the lead role, with the national government as support, in disaster planning and response.     

Evidence for enhanced dissipation of chlorpyrifos in an agricultural soil inoculated with Serratia rubidaea strain ABS 10

The insecticide ¹⁴C-chlorpyrifos was found mineralized in a Tunisian soil with repeated exposure to it. From this soil, a bacterial strain was isolated that was able to grow in a minimal salt medium (MSM) supplemented with 25 mg L^?1 of chlorpyrifos. It was characterized as Serratia rubidaea strain ABS 10 using morphological and biochemical analyses, as well as 16S rRNA sequencing. In a liquid culture, the S. rubidaea strain ABS 10 was able to dissipate chlorpyrifos almost entirely within 48 h of incubation. Although the S. rubidaea strain ABS 10 was able to grow in an MSM supplemented with chlorpyrifos and dissipate it in a liquid culture, it was not able to mineralize ¹⁴C-chlorpyrifos. Therefore, it can be concluded that the dissipation capability of this bacteria might be attributed to its capacity to adsorb CHL. It can also be ascribed to other reasons such as the formation of biogenic non-extractable residues. In both non-sterile and sterile soil inoculated with S. rubidaea strain ABS 10, chlorpyrifos was more rapidly dissipated than in controls with DT₅₀ of 1.38 and 1.05 days, respectively.

     

PM2.5 and PM10 air pollution peaks are associated with emergency department visits for psychotic and mood disorders

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Particulate matters with a diameter of less than 10 µm (PM10) or less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) are major air pollutants. Their...     

A review of approaches for the long-term management of municipal solid waste landfills

After closure, municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills must be managed and controlled to avoid adverse effects on human health and the environment (HHE). Aftercare (or post-closure care) can be brought to an end when the authorities consider the landfill to no longer pose a threat to HHE. Different approaches have been suggested for long-term landfill management and evaluation of aftercare completion. In this paper, research on aftercare and its completion is analyzed and regulatory approaches for the completion of landfill aftercare are reviewed. Approaches to aftercare could be categorized as (i) target values, (ii) impact/risk assessment, and (iii) performance based. Comparison of these approaches illustrates that each has limitations and strengths. While target values are typically used as screening indicators to be complemented with site-specific assessments, impact/risk assessment approaches address the core issue about aftercare completion, but face large uncertainties and require a high level of expertise. A performance-based approach allows for the combination of target values and impact/risk assessments in a consistent evaluation framework with the aim of sequentially reducing aftercare intensity and, ultimately, leading to the completion of aftercare. At a regulatory level, simple qualitative criteria are typically used as the primary basis for defining completion of aftercare, most likely due to the complexity of developing rigorous evaluation methodologies. This paper argues that development of transparent and consistent regulatory procedures represents the basis for defining the desired state of a landfill at the end of aftercare and for reducing uncertainty about the intensity and duration of aftercare. In this context, recently presented technical guidelines and the ongoing debate with respect to their regulatory acceptance are a valuable step towards developing strategies for the cost-effective protection of HHE at closed MSW landfills. To assess the practicality of evaluation methodologies for aftercare, well-documented case studies including regulatory review and acceptance are needed.     

Sustaining Visitor Use in Protected Areas: Future Opportunities in Recreation Ecology Research Based on the USA Experience

Recreation ecology, the study of environmental consequences of outdoor recreation activities and their effective management, is a relatively new field of scientific study having emerged over the last 50 years. During this time, numerous studies have improved our understanding of how use-related, environmental and managerial factors affect ecological conditions and processes. Most studies have focused on vegetation and soil responses to recreation-related trampling on trails and recreation sites using indicators such as percent vegetation cover and exposed mineral soil. This applied approach has and will continue to yield important information for land managers. However, for the field to advance, more attention needs to be given to other ecosystem attributes and to the larger aspects of environmental conservation occurring at landscape scales. This article is an effort at initiating a dialog on needed advances in the field. We begin by reviewing broadly generalizable knowledge of recreation ecology, to separate what is known from research gaps. Then, based on the authors’ perspective of research in the USA and North America, several research directions are suggested as essential for continued progress in this field including theoretical development, broadening scale, integration with other disciplines, and examination of synergistic effects.