On the evidence for species coexistence: a critique of the coexistence program

A major challenge in ecology is to understand how the millions of species on Earth are organized into biological communities. Mechanisms promoting coexistence are one such class of organizing processes, which allow multiple species to persist in the same trophic level of a given web of species interactions. If some mechanism promotes the coexistence of two or more species, each species must be able to increase when it is rare and the others are at their typical abundances; this invasibility criterion is fundamental evidence for species coexistence regardless of the mechanism. In an attempt to evaluate the level of empirical support for coexistence mechanisms in nature, we surveyed the literature for empirical studies of coexistence at a local scale (i.e., species found living together in one place) to determine whether these studies satisfied the invasibility criterion. In our survey, only seven of 323 studies that drew conclusions about species coexistence evaluated invasibility in some way in either observational or experimental studies. In addition, only three other studies evaluated necessary but not sufficient conditions for invasibility (i.e., negative density dependence and a trade-off in performance that influences population regulation). These results indicate that, while species coexistence is a prevalent assumption for why species are able to live together in one place, critical empirical tests of this fundamental assumption of community structure are rarely performed. These tests are central to developing a more robust understanding of the relative contributions of both deterministic and stochastic processes structuring biological communities.     

Signal recognition by frogs in the presence of temporally fluctuating chorus-shaped noise

The background noise generated in large social aggregations of calling individuals is a potent source of auditory masking for animals that communicate acoustically. Despite similarities with the so-called "cocktail-party problem" in humans, few studies have explicitly investigated how non-human animals solve the perceptual task of separating biologically relevant acoustic signals from ambient background noise. Under certain conditions, humans experience a release from auditory masking when speech is presented in speech-like masking noise that fluctuates in amplitude. We tested the hypothesis that females of Cope's gray treefrog (Hyla chrysoscelis) experience masking release in artificial chorus noise that fluctuates in level at modulations rates characteristic of those present in ambient chorus noise. We estimated thresholds for recognizing conspecific advertisement calls (pulse rate=40-50 pulses/s) in the presence of unmodulated and sinusoidally amplitude modulated (SAM) chorus-shaped masking noise. We tested two rates of modulation (5 Hz and 45 Hz) because the sounds of frog choruses are modulated at low rates (e.g., less than 5-10 Hz), and because those of species with pulsatile signals are additionally modulated at higher rates typical of the pulse rate of calls (e.g., between 15-50 Hz). Recognition thresholds were similar in the unmodulated and 5-Hz SAM conditions, and 12 dB higher in the 45-Hz SAM condition. These results did not support the hypothesis that female gray treefrogs experience masking release in temporally fluctuating chorus-shaped noise. We discuss our results in terms of modulation masking, and hypothesize that natural amplitude fluctuations in ambient chorus noise may impair mating call perception.     

Modeling the dynamic habitat and breeding population of Southwestern Willow Flycatcher

To aid in the management and conservation of Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus, hereafter “Flycatcher”), we developed numerous models of flycatcher breeding habitat at Roosevelt Lake, AZ. For model development and testing, we compiled 10 years of flycatcher territory data that were obtained from intensive fieldwork between 1996 and 2005. We identified riparian vegetation annually in the project area from Landsat Thematic Mapper images, and extracted floodplain features from a digital elevation model. We created a novel class of temporal (i.e., multiyear) variables by characterizing the stability and variability in breeding habitat over a 6-year time interval. We used logistic regression to determine associations between environmental variables and flycatcher territory occurrence, and to test specific hypotheses. We mapped the probability of territory occurrence with a GIS and determined model accuracies with a classification table and a 10-year population database. Environmental features that were associated with breeding flycatchers included floodplain size, proximity to water, and the density, heterogeneity, age and stability of riparian vegetation. Our best model explained 79% of the variability in the flycatcher breeding population at Roosevelt Lake. The majority of predicted flycatcher habitat formed between 1996 and 2004 on an exposed lakebed ～3 years after water levels receded during a prolonged drought. A high correlation between annual reservoir levels and predicted breeding habitat (r = ?0.82) indicates that we can create and manage habitat for conservation purposes. Our predictive models quantify and assess the relative quality of flycatcher breeding habitat remotely, and can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of habitat restoration activities. Numerous techniques we developed can be used to characterize riparian vegetation and patch dynamics directly off of satellite imagery, thereby increasing its utility for conservation purposes.     

Transcending scale dependence in identifying habitat with resource selection functions

Multi-scale resource selection modeling is used to identify factors that limit species distributions across scales of space and time. This multi-scale nature of habitat suitability complicates the translation of inferences to single, spatial depictions of habitat required for conservation of species. We estimated resource selection functions (RSFs) across three scales for a threatened ungulate, woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou), with two objectives: (1) to infer the relative effects of two forms of anthropogenic disturbance (forestry and linear features) on woodland caribou distributions at multiple scales and (2) to estimate scale-integrated resource selection functions (SRSFs) that synthesize results across scales for management-oriented habitat suitability mapping. We found a previously undocumented scale-specific switch in woodland caribou response to two forms of anthropogenic disturbance. Caribou avoided forestry cut-blocks at broad scales according to first- and second-order RSFs and avoided linear features at fine scales according to third-order RSFs, corroborating predictions developed according to predator-mediated effects of each disturbance type. Additionally, a single SRSF validated as well as each of three single-scale RSFs when estimating habitat suitability across three different spatial scales of prediction. We demonstrate that a single SRSF can be applied to predict relative habitat suitability at both local and landscape scales in support of critical habitat identification and species recovery.     

Impacts of climate variability and human colonization on the vegetation of the Galápagos Islands

A high-resolution (2-9 year sampling interval) fossil pollen record from the Galápagos Islands, which spans the last 2690 years, reveals considerable ecosystem stability. Vegetation changes associated with independently derived histories of El Ni?o Southern Oscillation variability provided evidence of shifts in the relative abundance of individual species rather than immigration or extinction. Droughts associated with the Medieval Climate Anomaly induced rapid ecological change that was followed by a reversion to the previous state. The paleoecological data suggested nonneutral responses to climatic forcing in this ecosystem prior to the period of human influence. Human impacts on the islands are evident in the record. A marked decline in long-term codominants of the pollen record, Alternanthera and Acalypha, produced a flora without modern analogue before 1930. Intensified animal husbandry after ca. 1930 may have induced the local extinction of Acalypha and Alternanthera. Reductions in populations of grazing animals in the 1970s and 1980s did not result in the return of the native flora, but in invasions by exotic species. After ca. 1970 the trajectory of habitat change accelerated, continuously moving the ecosystem away from the observed range of variability in the previous 2690 years toward a novel ecosystem. The last 40 years of the record also suggest unprecedented transport of lowland pollen to the uplands, consistent with intensified convection and warmer wet seasons.     

The interaction between reproductive cost and individual quality is mediated by oceanic conditions in a long-lived bird

Environmental variability, costs of reproduction, and heterogeneity in individual quality are three important sources of the temporal and interindividual variations in vital rates of wild populations. Based on an 18-year monitoring of an endangered, recently described, long-lived seabird, Monteiro's Storm-Petrel (Oceanodroma monteiroi), we designed multistate survival models to separate the effects of the reproductive cost (breeders vs. nonbreeders) and individual quality (successful vs. unsuccessful breeders) in relation to temporally variable demographic and oceanographic properties. The analysis revealed a gradient of individual quality from nonbreeders, to unsuccessful breeders, to successful breeders. The survival rates of unsuccessful breeders (0.90 +/- 0.023, mean +/- SE) tended to decrease in years of high average breeding success and were more sensitive to oceanographic variation than those of both (high-quality) successful breeders (0.97 +/- 0.015) and (low-quality) nonbreeders (0.83 +/- 0.028). Overall, our results indicate that reproductive costs act on individuals of intermediate quality and are mediated by environmental harshness.     

Eliciting expert knowledge in conservation science

Expert knowledge is used widely in the science and practice of conservation because of the complexity of problems, relative lack of data, and the imminent nature of many conservation decisions. Expert knowledge is substantive information on a particular topic that is not widely known by others. An expert is someone who holds this knowledge and who is often deferred to in its interpretation. We refer to predictions by experts of what may happen in a particular context as expert judgments. In general, an expert-elicitation approach consists of five steps: deciding how information will be used, determining what to elicit, designing the elicitation process, performing the elicitation, and translating the elicited information into quantitative statements that can be used in a model or directly to make decisions. This last step is known as encoding. Some of the considerations in eliciting expert knowledge include determining how to work with multiple experts and how to combine multiple judgments, minimizing bias in the elicited information, and verifying the accuracy of expert information. We highlight structured elicitation techniques that, if adopted, will improve the accuracy and information content of expert judgment and ensure uncertainty is captured accurately. We suggest four aspects of an expert elicitation exercise be examined to determine its comprehensiveness and effectiveness: study design and context, elicitation design, elicitation method, and elicitation output. Just as the reliability of empirical data depends on the rigor with which it was acquired so too does that of expert knowledge.     

Herbivory by the Caribbean king crab on coral patch reefs

Caribbean coral reefs are increasingly dominated by macroalgae instead of corals due to several factors, including the decline of herbivores. Yet, virtually unknown is the role of crustacean macrograzers on coral reef macroalgae. We examined the effect of grazing by the Caribbean king crab (Mithrax spinosissimus) on coral patch reef algal communities in the Florida Keys, Florida (USA), by: (1) measuring crab selectivity and consumption of macroalgae, (2) estimating crab density, and (3) comparing the effect of crab herbivory to that of fishes. Mithrax prefers fleshy macroalgae, but it also consumes relatively unpalatable calcareous algae. Per capita grazing rates by Mithrax exceed those of most herbivorous fish, but Mithrax often occurs at low densities on reefs and its foraging activities are reduced in predator-rich environments. Therefore, the effects of grazing by Mithrax tend to be localized and when at low density contribute primarily to spatial heterogeneity in coral reef macroalgal communities.     

Distributional patterns of adult male loggerhead sea turtles (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Caretta caretta</Emphasis>) in the vicinity of Cape Canaveral,Florida, USA during and after a major annual breeding aggregation

Satellite transmitters were attached to 25 reproductively active and four inactive adult male loggerhead sea turtles (86.6–107.0 cm SCLmin) captured from the Port Canaveral, FL, USA shipping channel to assess horizontal and vertical distributions. During the breeding period, male loggerheads aggregated (44% of 755 turtle days) in a 117.6 km² core area that encompassed the shipping channel. Median dive duration during the breeding period was 27 min (IQR = 15–42 min) and males spent 4% (IQR = 3–5%) of the time at the surface, with significantly shorter dives associated with reproductively active males. Migrant and resident males dispersed concurrently, with residents shifting > 30 km east across the continental shelf over a more protracted departure schedule than migrants. Dive duration and time spent at the surface increased through the fall. Cluster analysis revealed the strongest association for dive duration with sea state during and after the breeding period, with significantly longer dives during more turbulent conditions. In contrast, univariate associations with surface interval duration were not elucidated.     

Seasonal distribution patterns of juvenile loggerhead sea turtles (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Caretta caretta</Emphasis>) following capture from a shipping channel in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean

Thirty-four juvenile loggerhead sea turtles captured by trawling from the Charleston, South Carolina (USA), shipping channel (32°42′N; −79°47′W) between May 2004 and August 2007 were tagged with satellite transmitters to assess the extent to which they remained near the capture location given their collection along a seasonal migratory corridor. Seventy-five percent of juveniles were classified as seasonal residents. Migrants predominantly swam north in the spring and nomads wandered south in the summer, but predictive indicators for non-resident status were not identified. All but one juvenile generally remained south of 34°N, within 40 km of shore, and in waters <30 m deep throughout the year. Nine of 14 loggerhead sea turtles monitored during the winter remained exclusively over the continental shelf, three briefly occurred in oceanic habitats, and two foraged extensively in oceanic habitats. Residents distributed >15 km from shore between spring and autumn were three times as likely to occur in oceanic habitats in winter. Modest seasonal movements contrasted with adults tagged at similar latitudes and with juveniles tagged further north and suggest distinct foraging groups within a regional foraging ground.