Probabilistic Flood Inundation Forecasting Using Rating Curve Libraries

One approach for performing uncertainty assessment in flood inundation modeling is to use an ensemble of models with different conceptualizations, parameters, and initial and boundary conditions that capture the factors contributing to uncertainty. However, the high computational expense of many hydraulic models renders their use impractical for ensemble forecasting. To address this challenge, we developed a rating curve library method for flood inundation forecasting. This method involves pre‐running a hydraulic model using multiple inflows and extracting rating curves, which prescribe a relation between streamflow and stage at various cross sections along a river reach. For a given streamflow, flood stage at each cross section is interpolated from the pre‐computed rating curve library to delineate flood inundation depths and extents at a lower computational cost. In this article, we describe the workflow for our rating curve library method and the Rating Curve based Automatic Flood Forecasting (RCAFF) software that automates this workflow. We also investigate the feasibility of using this method to transform ensemble streamflow forecasts into local, probabilistic flood inundation delineations for the Onion and Shoal Creeks in Austin, Texas. While our results show water surface elevations from RCAFF are comparable to those from the hydraulic models, the ensemble streamflow forecasts used as inputs to RCAFF are the largest source of uncertainty in predicting observed floods.     

Constraining SWAT Calibration with Remotely Sensed Evapotranspiration Data

Historically, many watershed studies have been based on using the streamflow flux, typically from a single gauge at the basin's outlet, to support calibration. In this setting, there is great potential for equifinality of parameters during the optimization process, especially for parameters that are not directly related to streamflow. Therefore, some of the optimal parameter values achieved during the autocalibration process may be physically unrealistic. In recent decades a vast array of data from land surface models and remote sensing platforms can help to constrain hydrologic fluxes such as evapotranspiration (ET). While the spatial resolution of these ancillary datasets varies, the continuous spatial coverage of these gridded datasets provides flux measurements across the entire basin, in stark contrast to point‐based streamflow data. This study uses Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Model data to constrain Soil and Water Assessment Tool parameter values associated with ET to a more physically realistic range. The study area is the Little Washita River Experimental Watershed, in southern Oklahoma. Traditional objective metrics such as the Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficients record no performance improvement after application of this method. However, there is a dramatic increase in the number of days with receding flow where simulations match observed streamflow.     

A Comprehensive Python Toolkit for Accessing High‐Throughput Computing to Support Large Hydrologic Modeling Tasks

The National Flood Interoperability Experiment (NFIE) was an undertaking that initiated a transformation in national hydrologic forecasting by providing streamflow forecasts at high spatial resolution over the whole country. This type of large‐scale, high‐resolution hydrologic modeling requires flexible and scalable tools to handle the resulting computational loads. While high‐throughput computing (HTC) and cloud computing provide an ideal resource for large‐scale modeling because they are cost‐effective and highly scalable, nevertheless, using these tools requires specialized training that is not always common for hydrologists and engineers. In an effort to facilitate the use of HTC resources the National Science Foundation (NSF) funded project, CI‐WATER, has developed a set of Python tools that can automate the tasks of provisioning and configuring an HTC environment in the cloud, and creating and submitting jobs to that environment. These tools are packaged into two Python libraries: CondorPy and TethysCluster. Together these libraries provide a comprehensive toolkit for accessing HTC to support hydrologic modeling. Two use cases are described to demonstrate the use of the toolkit, including a web app that was used to support the NFIE national‐scale modeling.     

Recovering Food Commons in Post Industrial Europe: Cooperation Networks in Organic Food Provisioning in Catalonia and Norway

This paper explores food commoning through an ethnographic case study in Catalonia as our primary site while the Norwegian case is juxtaposed as a comparison, two agriculturally and economically different European countries. The ethnography analyses cooperation networks between organic food producers’ and consumers’ involving different nodes of community gardening initiatives, self-employed growers, local farmers and all of them under a unique cooperative integrating a community economy. The result it is a myriad of exchange practices ranging from reciprocity and barter to market exchange without intermediaries through on-line platforms. Along these exchanges different options of currency intervene giving rise to novel social and cooperative relations. Similar initiatives in Norway show less variation and are less experimental regarding forms of payment but share similarities in relation to material articulations, concerns and forms of alternative practice. Although these novel forms do not represent a complete break from the more standardized supply chains, and hence from the oppositions/contradictions of production and consumption, the participants see themselves as contributing to a more general process of de-commodification of food. We explore the extent to which the meaning and moral values are mutually constituted in relation to socioeconomic exchanges and environmental caring that each person experiences based on different forms of cooperation and reciprocity. Food, we suggest, is more than a commodity on the market that we may influence through our role as consumers. It is a significant focal point connecting our lives to those of others that articulates one’s relations to society in a political manner.     

Detention Outlet Retrofit Improves the Functionality of Existing Detention Basins by Reducing Erosive Flows in Receiving Channels

By discharging excess stormwater at rates that more frequently exceed the critical flow for stream erosion, conventional detention basins often contribute to increased channel instability in urban and suburban systems that can be detrimental to aquatic habitat and water quality, as well as adjacent property and infrastructure. However, these ubiquitous assets, valued at approximately $600,000 per km² in a representative suburban watershed, are ideal candidates to aid in reversing such cycles of channel degradation because improving their functionality would not necessarily require property acquisition or heavy construction. The objective of this research was to develop a simple, cost‐effective device that could be installed in detention basin outlets to reduce the erosive power of the relatively frequent storm events (~ < two‐year recurrence) and provide a passive bypass to maintain flood control performance during infrequent storms (such as the 100‐year recurrence). Results from a pilot installation show that the Detain H₂O device reduced the cumulative sediment transport capacity of the preretrofit condition by greater than 40%, and contributed to reduced flashiness and prolonged baseflows in receiving streams. When scaling the strategy across a watershed, these results suggest that potential gains in water quality and stream channel stability could be achieved at costs that are orders of magnitude less than comparable benefits from newly constructed stormwater control measures.     

The climate adaptation imperative: local choices targeting global problems?

When confronted with the demands of global climate change, what causes some policy-makers to move the climate adaptation agenda forward in their communities, while others seemingly get little accomplished? To answer this question, we first discuss work on policy-drivers in a coupled human–natural systemic context. This summary review of past research helps us develop a set of competing and complementary explanations for why some communities aggressively pursue climate adaptation policies, while others do less. Following the discussion of policy-drivers, we then undertake an aggregate-level analysis of data collected across the 169 towns in Connecticut regarding climate adaptation, thus linking policy to its fundamental global cause. The quantitative data are augmented with interview data from policy-makers and activists from around the New England region.     

Variation in the seed progeny of smooth brome grass,Bromus inermis Leyss., under conditions of chronic irradiation in the zone of the Eastern Ural Radioactive Trace

Long-term studies have been performed on the seed progeny of B. inermis from test plots established along the radioactive contamination gradient in the zone of the Eastern Ural Radioactive Trace (EURT), where dose loads on maternal plants and embryos of seeds from chronically irradiated cenopopulations (with natural background radiation taken into account) exceed control values by factors of 2 to 107. Interannual and individual variation in the viability, mutability, and radiosensitivity of the seed progeny has been revealed. Against the background of high interpopulation variation in test parameters in the EURT zone, weather conditions appear to have no significant effect on seed quality, while such effects are appreciable in background cenopopulations. It has been shown that a positive correlation exist between the initial viability of the seed progeny and their radioresistance. Chronic irradiation in a wide dose range induces an increased frequency of different mutations and morphological modifications. The contents of low-molecular antioxidants in seedlings from impact cenopopulations proved to be higher than in the background sample. The results obtained characterize the potential of protective and restorative mechanisms acquired in the course of evolution that allow plants to survive in the changing environment under exposure to technogenic stress.     

Impact of industrial pollution on Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) radial growth in the areas of mineral fertilizer factory “Achema”

The aim of research was to assess the changes of annual radial increment of Scots pine forests in the vicinity of intensive and moderate industrial pollution of “Achema” factory producing mineral fertilizers. Our results indicate that the radial growth of the pine tree can be divided into three different periods: growth promotion, growth inhibition and growth recovery. Low levels of nitrogen emissions were beneficial for tree growth: the radial increment in the intensive and moderate pollution zones increased by 15–25% and 10%, respectively compared to control. During the growth inhibition period, the total annual industrial emission was 37–40 kt, and 40–45% radial growth loss was observed for the closest and 15–20% for the most distant stands. The radial growth decrease slowed down and the recovery of damaged stands began in 1990–1992 then air pollution was considerably reduced. The rate of forest recovery was high for the most damaged stands: their radial growth was close to control in 2000–2011.     

On characteristics of the brown rat,Rattus norvegicus Berk. (1769), in the meadow steppes of the Elbrus variant in the Central Caucasus

The blood system parameters (erythropoiesis in bone marrow, peripheral blood) of brown rat have been studied for the first time in the foothills of the Central Caucasus. Several species-specific features of these parameters have been revealed that distinguishing the brown rat from other representatives of the family Muridae.