Risk assessment in western mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis): do multiple cues have additive effects?

The threat-sensitivity hypothesis predicts that prey individuals will increase antipredator behaviors as apparent predator risk increases. An implicit assumption of the threat-sensitivity hypothesis is that predator risk is additive. In other words, all characteristics of a predator that indicate risk should contribute in an additive way to determine the degree of risk-sensitive behavior. We tested this assumption in the laboratory by presenting live predators (green sunfish, Lepomis cyanellus) to groups of western mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis). We examined effects of predator diet, hunger level, and size on predator avoidance and inspection behavior of mosquitofish. Both predator diet and predator hunger level were significant and additive determinants of distance maintained from a predator, resulting in a graded response to combinations of these predator cues. In contrast, whereas predator diet was the most important determinant of general avoidance distances, predator hunger level was more important in determining mosquitofish vertical distribution and inspection behavior. Thus, the relationship between predator cue and the antipredator behavior that it elicits is dependent on which cues and behaviors are examined. Our data suggest that during risky behaviors, such as predator inspection, mosquitofish rely mainly on visual cues (behavior differences between hungry and satiated predators), whereas general avoidance behavior is determined by additive responses from visual and chemical cues.     

Lignoid chemical defenses in the freshwater macrophyte Saururus cernuus

Summary. Chemical defense against herbivores has rarely been investigated for freshwater plants, possibly due to the common misconception that herbivory on aquatic macrophytes is low and would not select for chemical defenses. In previous work, the freshwater angiosperm Saururus cernuus was shown to be a low preference food for omnivorous crayfish despite its high nutrient value and relatively soft texture. We used feeding by the crayfish Procambarus clarkii to guide fractionation of the deterrent lipid-soluble extract of this plant, leading to the identification of seven deterrent lignoid metabolites, (–)-licarin A, (+)-saucernetin, (–)-dihydroguaiaretic acid, (–)-sauriols A and B, (–)-saucerneol, and (–)-saucerneol methyl ether. Lignans have been implicated in terrestrial plant chemical defenses as insect growth inhibitors, insect toxins, nematocides, antibacterial, and antifungal agents. However, these activities have rarely been demonstrated using ecologically relevant methodologies in terrestrial systems, and never before in freshwater systems. The widespread nature of lignans amongst very distantly related plants, along with their rich diversity of molecular structure, suggests that they could play a large role in mediating plant-herbivore interactions. In addition to the lignoid compounds we identified, there were other compounds present in low concentration or unstable compounds that were deterrent, that did not appear to be lignans, but that we were unable to identify. This plant thus appears to be defended by a complex mixture of natural products. Received 6 June 2000; revised 23 August 2000; accepted 2 September 2000     

Governing the Borderlands: Decoding the Power of Aid

This article examines aid practice, that is, the public-private contractual networks that link donor governments, UN agencies, military establishments, NGOs, private companies and others, as a relation of global liberal governance. In order to fulfil this function, such networks embody what could be called the 'securitisation' of international assistance. Based upon ideas of human security and ameliorating the effects of poverty and vulnerability reduction, aid is now seen as playing a direct security role. Rather than being concerned with relations between states, the primary aim of this security paradigm is to modulate and change the behaviour of populations within them. In doing so, it is able to exploit the opportunities afforded by privatisation. At the same time, however, aid as security is confronted by its own particular problem of 'governing at a distance'; how can calculations made by leading states be transformed into actions at the global edge when a multitude of private and non-government implementors now intervene? The article concludes by examining the contribution of risk analysis to solving this problem and, especially, the development of new contractual regimes based around technical standardisation, benchmarking and performance auditing. Through such technologies, metropolitan states are learning how to manage the public-private networks of aid practice and, as a result, to govern the borderlands in new ways.     

Multiscale satellite and spatial information and analysis framework in support of a large-area forest monitoring and inventory update

Many countries undertake a national forest inventory to enable statistically valid monitoring in support of national and international reporting of forest conditions and change. Canada’s National Forest Inventory (NFI) program is designed to operate on a 10-year remeasurement cycle, with an interim report produced at the 5-year mid-point. The NFI is a sample-based inventory, with approximately 18,850 2 ×2-km photo plots across the country, distributed on a 20×20-km grid of sample points; these photo plots are the primary data source for the NFI. Capacity to provide annual monitoring information is required to keep policy and decision makers apprised of current forest conditions. In this study, we implemented a multistage monitoring framework and used a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) change product to successfully identify 78% of the changes in forest cover area that were captured with a Landsat change detection approach. Of the NFI photo plots that were identified by both the Landsat and MODIS approaches as having changes in forest cover, the proportion of change area within the plots was similar (R ²?=?0.78). Approximately 70% of the Landsat-derived change events occupied less than 40% of a single MODIS pixel, and more than 90% of the change events of this size were successfully detected with the MODIS product. Finally, MODIS estimates of the proportion of forest cover change at the NFI photo plot level were comparable to change estimates for the ecoregions as a whole (R ²?=?0.95). High-temporal, low-spatial resolution imagery such as MODIS, in combination with other remotely sensed data sources, can provide information on disturbance events within a national forest inventory remeasurement cycle, thereby satisfying the interim information needs of policy and decision makers as well as the requirements of national and international reporting commitments.     

Assessing health impacts in complex eco-epidemiological settings in the humid tropics: Modular baseline health surveys

The quantitative assessment of health impacts has been identified as a crucial feature for realising the full potential of health impact assessment (HIA). In settings where demographic and health data are notoriously scarce, but there is a broad range of ascertainable ecological, environmental, epidemiological and socioeconomic information, a diverse toolkit of data collection strategies becomes relevant for the mainly small-area impacts of interest. We present a modular, cross-sectional baseline health survey study design, which has been developed for HIA of industrial development projects in the humid tropics. The modular nature of our toolkit allows our methodology to be readily adapted to the prevailing eco-epidemiological characteristics of a given project setting. Central to our design is a broad set of key performance indicators, covering a multiplicity of health outcomes and determinants at different levels and scales. We present experience and key findings from our modular baseline health survey methodology employed in 14 selected sentinel sites within an iron ore mining project in the Republic of Guinea. We argue that our methodology is a generic example of rapid evidence assembly in difficult-to-reach localities, where improvement of the predictive validity of the assessment and establishment of a benchmark for longitudinal monitoring of project impacts and mitigation efforts is needed.     

Statistical Simulation to Estimate Uncertain Behavioral Parameters of Hybrid Energy-Economy Models

In energy-economy modeling, new hybrid models attempt to combine the technological explicitness of bottom-up models with the macroeconomic feedbacks and statistically estimated behavioral parameters of top-down models. However, statistical estimation of behavioral parameters (portraying firm and household technology choices) with such models is challenged by the number of uncertain variables and the lack of historical data on technologies in terms of capital costs, operating costs, and market shares. Multiple combinations of parameter values might equally explain past technology choices. This paper reports on the application of a Bayesian statistical simulation approach for estimating the most likely values for these key behavioral parameters in order to best explain past technology choices and then simulate policies to influence future technology choices. The method included (1) data collection of key technology market shares, capital costs, and operating costs over the past; (2) backcasting a hybrid energy-economy model over a historical time period; and (3) the application of Markov chain Monte Carlo statistical simulation using the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm as a tool for estimating distributions for key parameters in the model. The results provide a means of indicating the uncertainty bounds around key behavioral parameters when generating forecasts of the effect of certain policies. However, the results also indicate that this approach may have limited applicability, given that future available technologies may differ substantially from past technologies and that it is difficult to separate the effects of parameter uncertainty from model structure uncertainty.     

Preparation, certification and interlaboratory analysis of workplace air filters spiked with high-fired beryllium oxide

Occupational sampling and analysis for multiple elements is generally approached using various approved methods from authoritative government sources such as the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), as well as consensus standards bodies such as ASTM International. The constituents of a sample can exist as unidentified compounds requiring sample preparation to be chosen appropriately, as in the case of beryllium in the form of beryllium oxide (BeO). An interlaboratory study was performed to collect analytical data from volunteer laboratories to examine the effectiveness of methods currently in use for preparation and analysis of samples containing calcined BeO powder. NIST SRM(?) 1877 high-fired BeO powder (1100 to 1200 °C calcining temperature; count median primary particle diameter 0.12 μm) was used to spike air filter media as a representative form of beryllium particulate matter present in workplace sampling that is known to be resistant to dissolution. The BeO powder standard reference material was gravimetrically prepared in a suspension and deposited onto 37 mm mixed cellulose ester air filters at five different levels between 0.5 μg and 25 μg of Be (as BeO). Sample sets consisting of five BeO-spiked filters (in duplicate) and two blank filters, for a total of twelve unique air filter samples per set, were submitted as blind samples to each of 27 participating laboratories. Participants were instructed to follow their current process for sample preparation and utilize their normal analytical methods for processing samples containing substances of this nature. Laboratories using more than one sample preparation and analysis method were provided with more than one sample set. Results from 34 data sets ultimately received from the 27 volunteer laboratories were subjected to applicable statistical analyses. The observed performance data show that sample preparations using nitric acid alone, or combinations of nitric and hydrochloric acids, are not effective for complete extraction of Be from the SRM 1877 refractory BeO particulate matter spiked on air filters; but that effective recovery can be achieved by using sample preparation procedures utilizing either sulfuric or hydrofluoric acid, or by using methodologies involving ammonium bifluoride with heating. Laboratories responsible for quantitative determination of Be in workplace samples that may contain high-fired BeO should use quality assurance schemes that include BeO-spiked sampling media, rather than solely media spiked with soluble Be compounds, and should ensure that methods capable of quantitative digestion of Be from the actual material present are used.