IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MISSOURI RWER BASIN WATER YIELD1

ABSTRACT: Water from the Missouri River Basin is used for multiple purposes. The climatic change of doubling the atmospheric carbon dioxide may produce dramatic water yield changes across the basin. Estimated changes in basin water yield from doubled CO₂ climate were simulated using a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) and a physically based rainfall‐runoff model. RegCM output from a five‐year, equilibrium climate simulation at twice present CO₂ levels was compared to a similar present‐day climate run to extract monthly changes in meteorologic variables needed by the hydrologic model. These changes, simulated on a 50‐km grid, were matched at a commensurate scale to the 310 subbasin in the rainfall‐runoff model climate change impact analysis. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) rainfall‐runoff model was used in this study. The climate changes were applied to the 1965 to 1989 historic period. Overall water yield at the mouth of the Basin decreased by 10 to 20 percent during spring and summer months, but increased during fall and winter. Yields generally decreased in the southern portions of the basin but increased in the northern reaches. Northern subbasin yields increased up to 80 percent: equivalent to 1.3 cm of runoff on an annual basis.     

Reducing the Effects of Dredged Material Levees on Coastal Marsh Function: Sediment Deposition and Nekton Utilization

Dredged material levees in coastal Louisiana are normally associated with pipeline canals or, more frequently, canals dredged through the wetlands to allow access to drilling locations for mineral extraction. The hydrologic impact on marshes behind the levee is of concern to coastal resource managers because of the potential impact on sediment transport and deposition, and the effect on estuarine organism access to valuable nursery habitat. This study examined the effects of gaps in dredged material levees, compared to continuous levees and natural channel banks, on these two aspects of marsh function. Field studies for sediment deposition were conducted biweekly for a year, and nekton samples were collected in spring and fall. Variation in nekton density among study arears and landscape types was great in part because of the inherent sampling gear issues and in part because of differences in characteristics among areas. Nekton densities were generally greater in natural compared to leveed and gapped landscapes. Differences in landscape type did not explain patterns in sediment deposition. The gaps examined appear to be too restrictive of marsh flooding to provide efficient movements of floodwaters onto the marsh during moderate flooding events. The “trapping” effect of the levees increases sediment deposition during extreme events. Gapping material levees may be an effective method of partially restoring upper marsh connection to nekton, but this method may work best in lower elevation marshes where nekton use is greater.     

Hydrological Connectivity Between Headwater Streams and Downstream Waters: How Science Can Inform Policy1

Abstract: In January 2001, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers exceeded its statutory authority by asserting Clean Water Act (CWA) jurisdiction over non‐navigable, isolated, intrastate waters based solely on their use by migratory birds. The Supreme Court’s majority opinion addressed broader issues of CWA jurisdiction by implying that the CWA intended some “connection” to navigability and that isolated waters need a “significant nexus” to navigable waters to be jurisdictional. Subsequent to this decision (SWANCC), there have been many lawsuits challenging CWA jurisdiction, many of which are focused on headwater, intermittent, and ephemeral streams. To inform the legal and policy debate surrounding this issue, we present information on the geographic distribution of headwater streams and intermittent and ephemeral streams throughout the U.S., summarize major findings from the scientific literature in considering hydrological connectivity between headwater streams and downstream waters, and relate the scientific information presented to policy issues surrounding the scope of waters protected under the CWA. Headwater streams comprise approximately 53% (2,900,000 km) of the total stream length in the U.S., excluding Alaska, and intermittent and ephemeral streams comprise approximately 59% (3,200,000 km) of the total stream length and approximately 50% (1,460,000 km) of the headwater stream length in the U.S., excluding Alaska. Hillslopes, headwater streams, and downstream waters are best described as individual elements of integrated hydrological systems. Hydrological connectivity allows for the exchange of mass, momentum, energy, and organisms longitudinally, laterally, vertically, and temporally between headwater streams and downstream waters. Via hydrological connectivity, headwater, intermittent and ephemeral streams cumulatively contribute to the functional integrity of downstream waters; hydrologically and ecologically, they are a part of the tributary system. As this debate continues, scientific input from multiple fields will be important for policymaking at the federal, state, and local levels and to inform water resource management regardless of the level at which those decisions are being made. Strengthening the interface between science, policy, and public participation is critical if we are going to achieve effective water resource management.     

COMPARISON OF STOCHASTIC AND DETERMINISTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING FOR RESERVOIR OPERATING RULE GENERATION1

ABSTRACT: Two dynamic programming models — one deterministic and one stochastic — that may be used to generate reservoir operating rules are compared. The deterministic model (DPR) consists of an algorithm that cycles through three components: a dynamic program, a regression analysis, and a simulation. In this model, the correlation between the general operating rules, defined by the regression analysis and evaluated in the simulation, and the optimal deterministic operation defined by the dynamic program is increased through an iterative process. The stochastic dynamic program (SDP) describes streamflows with a discrete lag-one Markov process. To test the usefulness of both models in generating reservoir operating rules, real-time reservoir operation simulation models are constructed for three hydrologically different sites. The rules generated by DPR and SDP are then applied in the operation simulation model and their performance is evaluated. For the test cases, the DPR generated rules are more effective in the operation of medium to very large reservoirs and the SDP generated rules are more effective for the operation of small reservoirs.     

Special needs hurricane shelters and the ageing population: development of a methodology and a case study application

Recent experience of hurricanes, particularly in the southeast United States, has heightened awareness of the multifaceted nature of and the challenges to effective disaster relief planning. One key element of this planning is providing adequate shelter at secure locations for people who evacuate. Some of these individuals will have ‘special needs’, yet there is little research on the relationship with shelter space. This study designed a geographic information systems‐based network optimisation methodology for the siting of special needs hurricane relief shelters, with a focus on the transportation component. It sought to find new locations for shelters that maximise accessibility by vulnerable populations, given capacity constraints, concentrating on the ageing population. The framework was implemented in a medium‐sized metropolitan statistical area in the state of Florida where data suggest a possible deficit in special needs shelter space. The study analysed options for increasing special needs shelter capacity, while considering potential uncertainties in transportation network availability.     

Seaweed sex pheromones and their degradation products frequently suppress amphipod feeding but rarely suppress sea urchin feeding

Summary. A diverse group of brown seaweeds produce bouquets of C₁₁ metabolites, some of which act as pheromones that cue gamete release or attract sperm to eggs following release. We demonstrate that these C₁₁ metabolites and their degradation products also frequently and strongly deter feeding by the herbivorous amphipod Ampithoe longimana, but rarely by the herbivorous sea urchin Arbacia punctulata. Across the range of concentrations tested, seven of twelve C₁₁ metabolites or mixtures that we tested deterred feeding by the amphipod, but only two of eleven deterred the sea urchin. For those compounds where we could rigorously contrast the magnitude of deterrence against the amphipod with the magnitude of deterrence against the urchin, the amphipod was deterred significantly more than the urchin by five of six metabolites. Thus, C₁₁ compounds were more frequently and more strongly deterrent to the amphipod than to the sea urchin. These findings for C₁₁ metabolites conflict with previous investigations, where other classes of seaweed chemical defenses have been shown to deter feeding by large mobile herbivores like urchins and fishes but to be relatively ineffective against mesograzers, especially the species of amphipod that we used here. Our results suggest that C₁₁ metabolites are unusual among the known seaweed chemical defenses in that they are especially effective against mesograzers, which often consume seaweed spores, zygotes, and juveniles. The high concentrations of C₁₁ metabolites in brown algal eggs could allow these defenses to be especially important in defending gametes, zygotes, or young sporelings from herbivorous mesograzers. Received 26 February 1998; accepted 9 April 1998.     

Indicators of sustainability as a tool in agricultural development: partitioning scientific and participatory processes

SUMMARY

Sustainable indicators have become popular tools by which policymakers can assess progress towards a more sustainable agriculture. Varying approaches to defining sustainability lead to disagreement about the value of indicators and yet some form of measurement is required so that society can judge the effects of policy. Environmental and social problems and their causes span national boundaries. An international framework for assessing agricultural activities, their effects and the pressures that drive those activities is therefore required. However, a guiding principle of the UN Agenda for Sustainable Development is that global problems require local action. Thus, indicators must provide information for policymakers as well as guidance for farmers and other practitioners. Many indicator programmes currently proposed do not provide this level of guidance as no evaluation as to what level of activity is sustainable has been agreed. A model is presented, to show how scientific and political or participatory approaches may be combined to meet the multiple objectives of involving people, maintaining scientific integrity and providing guidance for policymakers and practitioners alike.     

The importance of solid-phase distribution on the oral bioaccessibility of Ni and Cr in soils overlying Palaeogene basalt lavas, Northern Ireland

Potentially toxic elements (PTEs) including nickel and chromium are often present in soils overlying basalt at concentrations above regulatory guidance values due to the presence of these elements in underlying geology. Oral bioaccessibility testing allows the risk posed by PTEs to human health to be assessed; however, bioaccessibility is controlled by factors including mineralogy, particle size, solid-phase speciation and encapsulation. X-ray diffraction was used to characterise the mineralogy of 12 soil samples overlying Palaeogene basalt lavas in Northern Ireland, and non-specific sequential extraction coupled with chemometric analysis was used to determine the distribution of elements amongst soil components in 3 of these samples. The data obtained were related to total concentration and oral bioaccessible concentration to determine whether a relationship exists between the overall concentrations of PTEs, their bioaccessibility and the soils mineralogy and geochemistry. Gastric phase bioaccessible fraction (BAF %) ranged from 0.4 to 5.4 % for chromium in soils overlying basalt and bioaccessible and total chromium concentrations are positively correlated. In contrast, the range of gastric phase BAF for nickel was greater (1.4–43.8 %), while no significant correlation was observed between bioaccessible and total nickel concentrations. However, nickel BAF was inversely correlated with total concentration. Solid-phase fractionation information showed that bioaccessible nickel was associated with calcium carbonate, aluminium oxide, iron oxide and clay-related components, while bioaccessible chromium was associated with clay-related components. This suggests that weathering significantly affects nickel bioaccessibility, but does not have the same effect on the bioaccessibility of chromium.     

A game theoretic approach to multimodal communication

Over the last few decades the animal communication community has become increasingly aware that much communication occurs using multiple signals in multiple modalities. The majority of this work has been empirical, with less theoretical work on the advantages conferred by such communication. In the present paper, we ask: Why should animals communicate with multiple signals in multiple modalities? To tackle this question we use game theoretic techniques, and highlight developments in the economic signaling literature that might offer insight into biological problems. We start by establishing a signaling game, and investigate signal honesty under two prevailing paradigms of honest communication – costly signaling and cheap talk. In both paradigms, without further constraint, it is simple to show that anything that can be achieved with multiple signals can be achieved with one. We go on to investigate different sets of possible constraints that may make multiple signals and multimodal signals in particular more likely to evolve. We suggest that constraints on cost functions and bandwidths, orthogonal noise across modalities, strategically distinct modes, multiple qualities, multiple signalers, and multiple audiences, all provide biologically plausible scenarios that theoretically favor multiple and multimodal signaling.