Testing the Potential for Predictive Modeling and Mapping and Extending Its Use as a Tool for Evaluating Management Scenarios and Economic Valuation in the Baltic Sea (PREHAB)

We evaluated performance of species distribution models for predictive mapping, and how models can be used to integrate human pressures into ecological and economic assessments. A selection of 77 biological variables (species, groups of species, and measures of biodiversity) across the Baltic Sea were modeled. Differences among methods, areas, predictor, and response variables were evaluated. Several methods successfully predicted abundance and occurrence of vegetation, invertebrates, fish, and functional aspects of biodiversity. Depth and substrate were among the most important predictors. Models incorporating water clarity were used to predict increasing cover of the brown alga bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus and increasing reproduction area of perch Perca fluviatilis, but decreasing reproduction areas for pikeperch Sander lucioperca following successful implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. Despite variability in estimated non-market benefits among countries, such changes were highly valued by citizens in the three Baltic countries investigated. We conclude that predictive models are powerful and useful tools for science-based management of the Baltic Sea.     

Early prenatal diagnosis of cartilage-hair hypoplasia (CHH) with polymorphic DNA markers

Cartilage-hair hypoplasia (CHH) is an autosomal recessive disorder resulting in short stature and hypoplasia of hair. Associated features include impaired T-cell-mediated immunity, deficient erythropoiesis, gastrointestinal dysfunction, and an increased risk of malignancies. As the condition may, in some cases, be severe or even fatal during childhood, families with a previous history of CHH may wish to have prenatal diagnosis. We have previously assigned the gene for CHH to the proximal 9p by linkage analysis using several polymorphic DNA markers. Here we report the prenatal testing for CHH in three Finnish and one Australian family using three DNA markers closely linked to the CHH gene. In three cases a fetus unaffected with CHH was predicted at the probability level of more than 94 per cent. In one case, an affected fetus was predicted. The results were in concordance with ultrasonography performed for all fetuses. The three children born to date were unaffected as predicted. The DNA marker-based analysis thus provides a useful method for early prenatal testing for CHH.     

The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM: a review

The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM, was a 6.5-year national research network for regional climate modeling, regional climate change projections and hydrological impact assessment and information to a wide range of stakeholders. Most of the program activities focussed on the regional climate system of Northern Europe. This led to the establishment of an advanced, coupled atmosphere-ocean-hydrology regional climate model system, a suite of regional climate change projections and progress on relevant data and process studies. These were, in turn, used for information and educational purposes, as a starting point for impact analyses on different societal sectors and provided contributions also to international climate research.     

Impacts of temperature and liquid/solid ratio on anaerobic degradation of municipal solid waste: an emission investigation of landfill simulation reactors

Management of landfill emissions, i.e., landfill gas (LFG) and landfill leachate, is an important and resource-intensive task. A long-term demonstration pilot, consisting of landfill simulation reactors (LSRs), was used to study the impact of temperature and the applied liquid/solid ratio (L/S ratio) on landfill emissions, characteristics, and trends. This pilot has already run for more than 1000 days since the end of 2004 and will continue to run for some time. The degradation of waste at different temperatures has impacts on the overall degradation degree and on the length of post-closure care required. Higher temperatures accelerated the degradation, but also resulted in higher leachate chemical oxygen demand (COD) and ammonia concentrations, which prolong the aftercare period. Meanwhile, at a given stabilization degree [e.g., 70 l gas/kg waste (dry)], the total leached nitrogen under psychrophilic conditions was 3.5 times that under mesophilic/thermophilic conditions, which resulted in a higher required effort for leachate treatment. The impact of L/S ratio or simulated annual L/S rates was also evaluated. The results show the significance of efficiently obtaining the targeted L/S ratio in order to achieve low landfill emission potential.     

Roadside aerosol study using hygroscopic,organic and volatility TDMAs: Characterization and mixing state

Traffic-related aerosol particles are ubiquitous in the urban atmosphere. As they are produced at ground level, they can also cause adverse health effects to urban dwellers. However, knowledge of the formation, transformation and chemically resolved size distribution of urban ultrafine particles is incomplete. Thus, more of these measurements are needed for better assessment of ambient air quality and its potential health effects. The particle number concentration, aerosol black carbon (BC) concentration and size distribution of traffic-related aerosols were measured near two major roads in Kuopio, Finland, from 16 June to 5 July, 2004. Furthermore, the properties of roadside aerosol particles were examined with the Tandem Differential Mobility Analyzer technique (TDMA). A suite of TDMA instruments relying on water (hygroscopic TDMA) and ethanol (organic TDMA) condensation as well as heating (volatility TDMA) were deployed to study the composition of the nucleation and Aitken mode particles (D_p = 10–50 nm) formed from vehicle exhaust. The results show that a simple three-component model was able to reproduce characteristic insoluble, organic and water-soluble volume fractions. Insoluble constituents were dominant in the Aitken mode particles, whereas organic compounds dominated the nucleation mode sizes. On average, only a small volume fraction was water-soluble, but a clear external mixing was observed particularly when enough time was allowed after the tail pipe emissions. The contribution of the insoluble material was seen to increase as a function of particle size, being typically less than 10% at 10 nm and between 20 and 50% at 50 nm, in contrast to the organic fraction, which decreased from about 80% at nucleation mode size range to 50–60% at 50 nm.     

Implementing inherent safety throughout process lifecycle

Inherent safety should be implemented as early as possible in the design life cycle, since the changes in process design are easier and cheaper the earlier they are done. The problem is, how to evaluate process alternatives in the terms of inherent safety in the early design phases, when much of the information is missing. In this paper the process life cycle phases and the possibilities of implementing and evaluating inherent safety are discussed. The applicability and accuracy of an inherent safety index method is presented by a case study.     

Comparison of inherent safety indices in process concept evaluation

In conceptual design, process routes can be compared and ranked by using inherent safety indices. In this paper, some inherent safety index methods presented in literature are compared and their properties and limitations discussed. As a case study, an inherent safety evaluation of methyl methacrylate process routes is presented. Three index based inherent safety evaluation methods are compared with expert evaluations on methyl methacrylate process routes and their subprocesses. Also the index based inherent safety ranking of process routes is compared with an expert ranking.