Modelling changes in nitrogen emissions into the Oder River System 1875–1944

Studies of nutrient emissions into surface waters are usually only performed for years in recent decades. However, estimating nutrient emissions for the more distant past enables us to identify the main factors responsible for the increasing nutrient contamination since the end of the nineteenth century. We focussed on the Oder River System for 1875–1944, divided into 10-year periods. Nutrient emissions into surface waters were calculated with the model MONERIS (MOdelling Nutrient Emissions in RIver Systems). For seven different pathways and eight sources, the total nitrogen (TN) emissions were quantified. The TN-emissions into the surface waters for 1880 amounted to 25,300 t?year^?1, and by 1940, this value had almost doubled to 46,600?t?year^?1. In 1880, 57% of TN-emissions into the surface waters derived from urban systems, due to the high amount of untreated waste water. In 1940, only 34% of TN-emissions into surface waters derived from urban systems, despite a population growth of about 27% since 1880; point sources via newly constructed waste water treatment plants (WWTPs) increased from 4% (1880) to 26% (1940). During the study period, the main changes in diffuse TN-emissions from agriculture were caused by inorganic fertilizer application and nitrogen deposition, while TN-emissions via urban sources were shifted to point sources due to population growth and the construction of new WWTPs. Furthermore, estimated TN-concentrations could make a contribution to construct benchmarks for nutrient concentrations according to the physiochemical properties to implement the European Water Framework Directive (WFD 2000).     

Comparison of leaching tests to determine and quantify the release of inorganic contaminants in demolition waste

The changes in waste management policy caused by the massive generation of waste materials (e.g. construction and demolition waste material, municipal waste incineration products) has led to an increase in the reuse and recycling of waste materials. For environmental risk assessment, test procedures are necessary to examine waste materials before they can be reused. In this article, results of column and lysimeter leaching tests having been applied to inorganic compounds in a reference demolition waste material are presented. The results show a good agreement between the leaching behaviour determined with the lysimeter unit and the column units used in the laboratory. In view of less time and system requirements compared to lysimeter systems, laboratory column units can be considered as a practicable instrument to assess the time-dependent release of inorganic compounds under conditions similar to those encountered in a natural environment. The high concentrations of elements in the seepage water at the initial stage of elution are reflected by the laboratory column leaching tests. In particular, authorities or laboratories might benefit and have an easy-to-use, but nevertheless reliable, method to serve as a basis for decision-making.     

Sulfide assimilation by ectosymbionts of the sessile ciliate, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Zoothamnium niveum</Emphasis>

We investigated the constraints on sulfide uptake by bacterial ectosymbionts on the marine peritrich ciliate Zoothamnium niveum by a combination of experimental and numerical methods. Protists with symbionts were collected on large blocks of mangrove-peat. The blocks were placed in a flow cell with flow adjusted to in situ velocity. The water motion around the colonies was then characterized by particle tracking velocimetry. This shows that the feather-shaped colony of Z. niveum generates a unidirectional flow of seawater through the colony with no recirculation. The source of the feeding current was the free-flowing water although the size of the colonies suggests that they live partly submerged in the diffusive boundary layer. We showed that the filtered volume allows Z. niveum to assimilate sufficient sulfide to sustain the symbiosis at a few micromoles per liter in ambient concentration. Numerical modeling shows that sulfide oxidizing bacteria on the surfaces of Z. niveum can sustain 100-times higher sulfide uptake than bacteria on flat surfaces, such as microbial mats. The study demonstrates that the filter feeding zooids of Z. niveum are preadapted to be prime habitats for sulfide oxidizing bacteria due to Z. niveum’s habitat preference and due to the feeding current. Z. niveum is capable of exploiting low concentrations of sulfide in near norm-oxic seawater. This links its otherwise dissimilar habitats and makes it functionally similar to invertebrates with thiotrophic symbionts in filtering organs. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Distribution-free two-sample comparisons in the case of heterogeneous variances

Behavioral ecologists are often faced with a situation where they need to compare the central tendencies of two samples. The standard tools of the t test and Mann–Whitney U test (equivalent to the Wilcoxon rank-sum test) are unreliable when the variances of the groups are different. The problem is particularly severe when sample sizes are different between groups. The unequal-variance t test (Welch test) may not be suitable for nonnormal data. Here, we propose the use of Brunner and Munzel’s generalized Wilcoxon test followed by randomization to allow for small sample sizes. This tests whether the probability of an individual from one population being bigger than an individual from the other deviates from random expectation. This probability may sometimes be a more clear and informative measure of difference between the groups than a difference in more commonly used measures of central tendency (such as the mean). We provide a recipe for carrying out a statistical test of the null hypothesis that this probability is 50% and demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique for sample sizes typical in behavioral ecology. Although the test is not available in any commercial software package, it is relatively straightforward to implement for anyone with some programming ability. Furthermore, implementations in R and SAS are freely available on the internet.     

Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials—a combined evaluation of past and future trends

This paper develops a method for identifying and assessing long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials. The method is based on a combined evaluation of past and future supply and demand trends. By analysing raw material boom and bust cycles over the past 50 years, we have quantified indicators and defined benchmarks for identifying critical market situations. By applying the method, risks for supply shortage may be identified at an early stage. In addition, a numerical evaluation model has been developed for better comparison between various mineral raw materials. Compared to other assessment methods this method uses specific benchmarks for each raw material to better assess supply risks. The method is embedded within a systematic and comprehensive analytical approach.     

Extreme value analysis of Munich air pollution data

We present three different approaches to modelling extreme values of daily air pollution data. We fitted a generalized extreme value distribution to the monthly maxima of daily concentration measures. For the exceedances of a high threshold depending on the data, the parameters of the generalized Pareto distribution were estimated. Accounting for autocorrelation, clusters of exceedances were used. To obtain information about the relationship of the exceedance of the air quality standard and possible predictors we applied logistic regression. Results and their interpretation are given for daily average concentrations of ozone and nitrogen dioxide at two monitoring sites within the city of Munich.     

Simulated distributions of Baltic Sea-ice in warming climate and consequences for the winter habitat of the Baltic ringed seal

Sea-ice in the Baltic Sea in present and future climates is investigated. The Rossby Centre Regional Atmosphere-Ocean model was used to perform a set of 30-year-long time slice experiments. For each of the two driving global models HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3, one control run (1961-1990) and two scenario runs (2071-2100) based upon the SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios were conducted. The future sea-ice volume in the Baltic Sea is reduced by 83% on average. The Bothnian Sea, large areas of the Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga, and the outer parts of the southwestern archipelago of Finland will become ice-free in the mean. The presented scenarios are used to study the impact of climate change on the Baltic ringed seal (Phoca hispida botnica). Climate change seems to be a major threat to all southern populations. The only fairly good winter sea-ice habitat is found to be confined to the Bay of Bothnia.     

Bioaccumulation of 14C-17alpha-ethinylestradiol by the aquatic oligochaete Lumbriculus variegatus in spiked artificial sediment

A bioaccumulation study was performed with the endobenthic freshwater oligochaete Lumbriculus variegatus MULLER exposed to the radiolabelled synthetic steroid 17alpha-ethinylestradiol (14C-EE2) in a spiked artificial sediment. Concentration of total radioactivity increased constantly and almost linearly during 35 days of exposure. The accumulation factor normalised to worm lipid content and sediment TOC (AFlipid/OC) was 75 at the end of the uptake period, but a steady state was not reached. Uptake kinetics were calculated fitting the measured AFs to a kinetic rate equation for constant uptake from sediment using iterative non-linear regression analysis. After 10 days of elimination in contaminant-free sediment 50% of the accumulated total radioactivity was excreted by the worms. Extracts from L. variegatus sampled at the end of the uptake phase were analysed by thin layer chromatography (TLC). The results showed that 6% of the total radioactivity incorporated by the worms was 14C-EE2. After treatment of extracts with beta-glucuronidase the amount of 14C-EE2 increased to 84%. These results suggest that L. variegatus has the potency to accumulate high amounts of conjugated EE2. Hence, a transfer of EE2 to benthivores and subsequent secondary poisoning of predators might be possible.