Simulated sea surface temperature and heat fluxes in different climates of the Baltic Sea

The physical state of the Baltic Sea in possible future climates is approached by numerical model experiments with a regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model driven by different global simulations. Scenarios and recent climate simulations are compared to estimate changes. The sea surface is clearly warmer by 2.9 degrees C in the ensemble mean. The horizontal pattern of average annual mean warming can largely be explained in terms of ice-cover reduction. The transfer of heat from the atmosphere to the Baltic Sea shows a changed seasonal cycle: a reduced heat loss in fall, increased heat uptake in spring, and reduced heat uptake in summer. The interannual variability of surface temperature is generally increased. This is associated with a smoothed frequency distribution in northern basins. The overall heat budget shows increased solar radiation to the sea surface, which is balanced by changes of the other heat flux components.     

Monitoring polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and heavy metals in urban soil,compost and vegetation

Samples of urban surface soil, composts, leaves from avenue limetrees and grass from park areas of the city of Basel (Switzerland) were analysed for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and heavy metals. Generally, significant lower levels of PAHs (10 times lower) and heavy metals (3–70 times lower) were found in vegetation samples than in composts or soils. The concentrations of PAHs in soil and compost samples were in the same order of magnitude although 10–100-times higher in comparison to data given for rural soils in other studies, whereas heavy metal contents in urban soils and composts were 2–3 times higher than in rural samples. Using multivariate statistical analysis, it was possible to define similarities or special characteristics of single substances or substance groups in a given matrix reflecting their chemical properties and providing information on their specific emission sources.     

Structural perturbations of models used in mathematical biology

The paper discusses the importance of understanding structural perturbations of models used in mathematical biology, where we mainly focus on ecology and dynamical systems. We describe first briefly the classical modeling strategy and the derivation of model structures. Structural perturbations are then discussed, mainly in the framework of ODEs. We give some examples how insights obtained from this type of model could be transfered to other kinds of models. Finally we propose an alternative modeling strategy characterized by a systematic investigation of a models neighbourhood in an appropriately chosen model class.     

The OECD Validation Program of the H295R Steroidogenesis Assay for the Identification of In Vitro Inhibitors and Inducers of Testosterone and Estradiol Production. Phase 2: Inter-Laboratory Pre-Validation Studies (8 pp)

Background, Goals and Scope In response to concerns that have been raised about chemical substances that may alter the function of endocrine systems and result in adverse effects on human health, an OECD initiative was undertaken to develop and validate in vitro and in vivo assays to identify chemicals that may interfere with endocrine systems of vertebrates. Here we report on studies that were conducted to develop and standardize a cell-based screening assay using the H295R cell line to prioritize chemicals that may act on steroidogenic processes in humans and wildlife. These studies are currently ongoing as part of the ‘Special Activity on the Testing and Assessment of Endocrine Disruptors’ within the OECD Test Guidelines Program to review, develop, standardize, and validate a number of in vitro and in vivo toxicological assays for testing and assessment of chemicals concerning their potential to interact with the endocrine system of vertebrates. Study Design Six laboratories from five countries participated in the pre-validation studies. Each laboratory tested the effects of three model chemicals on the production of testosterone (T) and estradiol (E2) using the H295R Steroidogenesis Assay. Chemicals tested were well described inducers or inhibitors of steroidogenic pathways (forskolin, prochloraz and fadrozole). All experiments were conducted in 24 well plates following standard protocols. Six different doses per compound were analyzed in triplicate per plate. A quality control (QC) plate was run in conjunction with the chemical exposure plate to account for inter-assay variation. Each chemical exposure was conducted two or three times. Results All laboratories successfully detected increases and/or decreases in hormone production by H295R cells after exposure to the different model compounds and there was good agreement in the pattern of response for all groups. Forskolin increased both T and E2 while fadrozole and prochloraz decreased production of both hormones. All chemicals affected hormone production in a dose-dependent manner with the exception of fadrozole which caused maximum inhibition of E2 at the two least concentrations tested. Some inter-laboratory differences were noted in the alteration of hormone production measured in chemically exposed cells. However, with the exception of the production of T measured at one laboratory in cells exposed to forskolin, the EC₅₀s calculated were comparable (coefficients of variation 34–49%) for all hormones. Discussion and Perspectives The results indicated that the H295R Steroidogenesis Assay protocol was robust, transferable and reproducible among all laboratories. However, in several instances that were primarily related to one laboratory there were unexplained minor uncertainties related to the inter-laboratory hormone production variation. Based on the findings from this Phase 2 prevalidation study, the H295R Steroidogenesis Assay protocol is currently being refined. The next phase of the OECD validation program will test the refined protocol among the same group of laboratories using an extended set of chemicals (∼30) that will include positive and negative chemical controls as well as a broad spectrum of different potential inducers and inhibitors of steroidogenic pathways. Submission Editor: Dr. Carsten Brühl (bruehl@uni-landau.de)     

Options for Emission Allowance Allocation Under the Eu Emissions Trading Directive

The article investigates four alternative allocation schemes for emission allowances. The investigated schemes are emission-based allocation, production-based allocation with actor-specific emission factors, production-based allocation with benchmarking and production-based allocation based on data on best available technology (BAT). All the examined schemes apply free allocation based on historical activities. The allocation schemes are evaluated against the criteria for a National Allocation Plan, listed in the Annex III of the EU ETS Directive, and regarding their conformity with the criteria put forward by the Swedish Parliamentary Delegation on Flexible Mechanisms, The FlexMex 2 Commission. No allocation scheme unambiguously meets all criteria. Each has its advantages and disadvantages. Emission-based allocation schemes are most straightforward, transparent and are the easiest to implement. Production-based allocation schemes meet more of the criteria, but are more costly to implement and require more data. Data on BAT will not be available to the extent necessary in order to base an allocation scheme implemented for the trading starting 2005 on BAT. It is unlikely that any given allocation scheme will be perceived as fair by all concerned parties, no matter how sophisticated it is. The overall characteristics of the studied allocation schemes are summarised in the paper. Due to the lack of abatement cost curves, it is not possible to accurately model capital flows between the trading sectors. Data availability will most probably limit the options available to the authorities designing the allocation schemes. An erratum to this article is available at .     

Adaptation to changing water resources in the Ganges basin, northern India

An ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) runs from the EU HighNoon project are used to project future air temperatures and precipitation on a 25 km grid for the Ganges basin in northern India, with a view to assessing impact of climate change on water resources and determining what multi-sector adaptation measures and policies might be adopted at different spatial scales.The RCM results suggest an increase in mean annual temperature, averaged over the Ganges basin, in the range 1–4 °C over the period from 2000 to 2050, using the SRES A1B forcing scenario. Projections of precipitation indicate that natural variability dominates the climate change signal and there is considerable uncertainty concerning change in regional annual mean precipitation by 2050. The RCMs do suggest an increase in annual mean precipitation in this region to 2050, but lack significant trend. Glaciers in headwater tributary basins of the Ganges appear to be continuing to decline but it is not clear whether meltwater runoff continues to increase. The predicted changes in precipitation and temperature will probably not lead to significant increase in water availability to 2050, but the timing of runoff from snowmelt will likely occur earlier in spring and summer. Water availability is subject to decadal variability, with much uncertainty in the contribution from climate change.Although global social-economic scenarios show trends to urbanization, locally these trends are less evident and in some districts rural population is increasing. Falling groundwater levels in the Ganges plain may prevent expansion of irrigated areas for food supply. Changes in socio-economic development in combination with projected changes in timing of runoff outside the monsoon period will make difficult choices for water managers.Because of the uncertainty in future water availability trends, decreasing vulnerability by augmenting resilience is the preferred way to adapt to climate change. Adaptive policies are required to increase society's capacity to adapt to both anticipated and unanticipated conditions. Integrated solutions are needed, consistent at various spatial scales, to assure robust and sustainable future use of resources. For water resources this is at the river basin scale. At present adaptation measures in India are planned at national and state level, not taking into account the physical boundaries of water systems. To increase resilience adaptation plans should be made locally specific. However, as it is expected that the partitioning of water over the different sectors and regions will be the biggest constraint, a consistent water use plan at catchment and river basin scale may be the best solution. A policy enabling such river basin planning is essential.     

The economic dynamics of antibiotic efficacy under open access

We analyze the exploitation of an antibiotic in a market subject to open access on the part of antibiotic producers to the common pool of antibiotic efficacy. While the market equilibrium depends only on current levels of antibiotic efficacy and infection of the epidemiological system, the social optimum accounts for the dynamic externalities which relate those levels to the intertemporal use being made of the antibiotic. We show that depending on the parameters of the model, in particular the cost of production and the improvement in the recovery rate that results from antibiotic treatment, the positive steady-state level of antibiotic efficacy to which the system tends under open access can be lower or higher than the level which should prevail in the socially optimal steady state. In fact there are parameter configurations for which the steady states can be exactly the same. However, the paths leading to the steady state always differ.     

Investigating the potential for different scooter and car exhaust emissions to cause cytotoxic and (pro-)inflammatory responses to a 3D in vitro model of the human epithelial airway

The aim of this study was to compare the cytotoxicity and the (pro-)inflammatory responses of two-stroke (direct injection and carburetor technology) and four-stroke scooter and diesel car exhaust emissions on lung cells in vitro. This was analyzed by exposing a 3D in vitro model of the epithelial airway (consisting of human bronchial epithelial cells (cell line 16HBE14o^?) combined with human whole blood monocyte-derived macrophages and dendritic cells) to physically characterized exhaust emissions. Biological endpoints of cytotoxicity (lactate dehydrogenase release), as well as pro-inflammatory cytokine (tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α) and inflammatory chemokine (interleukin(IL)-8) stimulation were examined. Two-stroke direct injection scooter exhaust contained the highest particle number concentration and nitrogen oxides (NO _x ) concentrations and the emissions from the two-stroke carburetor scooter contained the highest hydrocarbon and lowest NO _x concentrations. The four-stroke scooter emitted the highest carbon monoxide concentration whereas the cars emitted the lowest. The combination of various technical optimizations for the two-stroke direct injection scooter (particle filter, oxidative catalyst, better oil and fuel) reduced the total emissions strongly and the TNF-α concentration significantly (p?相似文献   

Maintenance of coelomic fluid pH in sea urchins exposed to elevated CO2: the role of body cavity epithelia and stereom dissolution

Experimental ocean acidification leads to a shift in resource allocation and to an increased [HCO₃ ^?] within the perivisceral coelomic fluid (PCF) in the Baltic green sea urchin Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis. We investigated putative mechanisms of this pH compensation reaction by evaluating epithelial barrier function and the magnitude of skeleton (stereom) dissolution. In addition, we measured ossicle growth and skeletal stability. Ussing chamber measurements revealed that the intestine formed a barrier for HCO₃ ^? and was selective for cation diffusion. In contrast, the peritoneal epithelium was leaky and only formed a barrier for macromolecules. The ossicles of 6 week high CO₂-acclimatised sea urchins revealed minor carbonate dissolution, reduced growth but unchanged stability. On the other hand, spines dissolved more severely and were more fragile following acclimatisation to high CO₂. Our results indicate that epithelia lining the PCF space contribute to its acid–base regulation. The intestine prevents HCO₃ ^? diffusion and thus buffer leakage. In contrast, the leaky peritoneal epithelium allows buffer generation via carbonate dissolution from the surrounding skeletal ossicles. Long-term extracellular acid–base balance must be mediated by active processes, as sea urchins can maintain relatively high extracellular [HCO₃ ^?]. The intestinal epithelia are good candidate tissues for this active net import of HCO₃ ^? into the PCF. Spines appear to be more vulnerable to ocean acidification which might significantly impact resistance to predation pressure and thus influence fitness of this keystone species.