Short-Run Allocation of Emissions Allowances and Long-Term Goals for Climate Policy

We summarize the latest results on the rapid changes that are occurring to Arctic sea ice thickness and extent, the reasons for them, and the methods being used to monitor the changing ice thickness. Arctic sea ice extent had been shrinking at a relatively modest rate of 3–4% per decade (annually averaged) but after 1996 this speeded up to 10% per decade and in summer 2007 there was a massive collapse of ice extent to a new record minimum of only 4.1 million km². Thickness has been falling at a more rapid rate (43% in the 25 years from the early 1970s to late 1990s) with a specially rapid loss of mass from pressure ridges. The summer 2007 event may have arisen from an interaction between the long-term retreat and more rapid thinning rates. We review thickness monitoring techniques that show the greatest promise on different spatial and temporal scales, and for different purposes. We show results from some recent work from submarines, and speculate that the trends towards retreat and thinning will inevitably lead to an eventual loss of all ice in summer, which can be described as a ‘tipping point’ in that the former situation, of an Arctic covered with mainly multi-year ice, cannot be retrieved.     

Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study

Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.     

Reconstructing the Development of Baltic Sea Eutrophication 1850–2006

A comprehensive reconstruction of the Baltic Sea state from 1850 to 2006 is presented: driving forces are reconstructed and the evolution of the hydrography and biogeochemical cycles is simulated using the model BALTSEM. Driven by high resolution atmospheric forcing fields (HiResAFF), BALTSEM reproduces dynamics of salinity, temperature, and maximum ice extent. Nutrient loads have been increasing with a noteworthy acceleration from the 1950s until peak values around 1980 followed by a decrease continuing up to present. BALTSEM shows a delayed response to the massive load increase with most eutrophic conditions occurring only at the end of the simulation. This is accompanied by an intensification of the pelagic cycling driven by a shift from spring to summer primary production. The simulation indicates that no improvement in water quality of the Baltic Sea compared to its present state can be expected from the decrease in nutrient loads in recent decades.     

Analysis of constraints and potentials for wastewater management in the coastal city of Manado, North Sulawesi, Indonesia

Manado is the largest and most densely populated coastal city in North Sulawesi Province, Indonesia. The city is facing problems of wastewater discharged from various sources. These problems are driven by high population pressure, increasing economic activity, and low household income, in combination with inadequate organizational structure of government institutions for addressing the wastewater problems as well as for law enforcement. There have been no community initiatives to prevent or mitigate wastewater problems. Therefore, a wastewater management plan is urgently needed to prevent and mitigate pollution caused by discharged wastewater. In this paper we analyze the current situation with respect to environmental state, sources and treatment of wastewater, socio-economic and institutional capacities as well as community awareness. Constraints and potentials are discussed to give recommendations for an integrated wastewater management plan for the city of Manado.     

Human–Carnivore Coexistence on Communal Land Bordering the Greater Kruger Area,South Africa

The aim of this study was to assess the potential for coexistence between rural people (living adjacent to a protected area) and predators (from the same area) ranging onto communal land. Ninety members of local communities bordering Manyeleti Game Reserve, which is contiguous with Kruger National Park, South Africa were interviewed. Respondents expressed diverging attitudes toward predators, which were more favorable among participants with higher education. Negative views were particularly due to fear of human and livestock losses, especially to lions, Panthera leo. Lions were thought to be the most abundant predator both within and outside the reserve. Lions were also the best known predator and were most often held responsible for killing livestock. Despite these livestock losses and a lack of conservation education, most participants voiced favorable opinions about large carnivore conservation, as predators were considered an integral part of the respondents’ natural heritage. Thanks to this cultural tolerance and also because of a largely accepted management policy regarding predator control, large carnivores and people can coexist in the vicinity of Kruger National Park.     

Biogeochemical patterns in a river network along a land use gradient

The Bode catchment (Germany) shows strong land use gradients from forested parts of the National Park (23 % of total land cover) to agricultural (70 %) and urbanised areas (7 %). It is part of the Terrestrial Environmental Observatories of the German Helmholtz association. We performed a biogeochemical analysis of the entire river network. Surface water was sampled at 21 headwaters and at ten downstream sites, before (in early spring) and during the growing season (in late summer). Many parameters showed lower concentrations in headwaters than in downstream reaches, among them nutrients (ammonium, nitrate and phosphorus), dissolved copper and seston dry mass. Nitrate and phosphorus concentrations were positively related to the proportion of agricultural area within the catchment. Punctual anthropogenic loads affected some parameters such as chloride and arsenic. Chlorophyll a concentration and total phosphorus in surface waters were positively related. The concentration of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was higher in summer than in spring, whereas the molecular size of DOC was lower in summer. The specific UV absorption at 254 nm, indicating the content of humic substances, was higher in headwaters than in downstream reaches and was positively related to the proportion of forest within the catchment. CO₂ oversaturation of the water was higher downstream compared with headwaters and was higher in summer than in spring. It was correlated negatively with oxygen saturation and positively with DOC concentration but negatively with DOC quality (molecular size and humic content). A principle component analysis clearly separated the effects of site (44 %) and season (15 %), demonstrating the strong effect of land use on biogeochemical parameters.     

Environmental Modeling and Methods for Estimation of the Global Health Impacts of Air Pollution

Air pollution is increasingly recognized as a significant contributor to global health outcomes. A methodological framework for evaluating the global health-related outcomes of outdoor and indoor (household) air pollution is presented and validated for the year 2005. Ambient concentrations of PM2.5 are estimated with a combination of energy and atmospheric models, with detailed representation of urban and rural spatial exposures. Populations dependent on solid fuels are established with household survey data. Health impacts for outdoor and household air pollution are independently calculated using the fractions of disease that can be attributed to ambient air pollution exposure and solid fuel use. Estimated ambient pollution concentrations indicate that more than 80% of the population exceeds the WHO Air Quality Guidelines in 2005. In addition, 3.26?billion people were found to use solid fuel for cooking in three regions of Sub Saharan Africa, South Asia and Pacific Asia in 2005. Outdoor air pollution results in 2.7?million deaths or 23?million disability adjusted life years (DALYs) while household air pollution from solid fuel use and related indoor smoke results in 2.1?million deaths or 41.6?million DALYs. The higher morbidity from household air pollution can be attributed to children below the age of 5 in Sub Saharan Africa and South Asia. The burden of disease from air pollution is found to be significant, thus indicating the importance of policy interventions.     

Suppression of aromatase activity in populations of bream (Abramis brama) from the river Elbe, Germany

Aromatase activity was determined in brain and gonads of wild bream collected along the river Elbe, Germany, and correlated with other endocrine and reproductive endpoints such as plasma sex steroid concentrations, secondary sex characteristics (STI), plasma vitellogenin, gonad size (GSI), and maturation stages of germ cells (MS) that were reported for the same fish in a previous study. Furthermore, regional patterns of aromatase activity were correlated to a number of environmental factors such as exposure to environmental contaminants and parasitism. While aromatase activity was not detectable in the gonads of male and female fish with the assay used, fish of both genders revealed relatively great brain enzyme activities. As for most of the endocrine and reproductive parameters, with the exception of plasma testosterone (T), aromatase activities were significantly less in fish from a river stretch characterized by elevated exposures to organic contaminants and metals. Brain aromatase activity was positively and significantly correlated with plasma estradiol (E2) and MS in females, and showed a similar trend with plasma 11-ketotestosterone (11KT) and STI in males. No comparable trend occurred for T. This decrease of the reproductively relevant hormones 11KT and E2 may be indicative of a disruption of the last step in sex hormone synthesis, a hypothesis that was supported for E2 by the strong (R2=0.78, p<0.05) linear regression between aromatase activity and E2 in female bream. It is also hypothesized that the effects on brain aromatase activity were likely to be related to the disruption of other reproductive parameters including sexual maturity and expression of secondary sex characteristics. Although a number of factors such as exposure to pollutants and prevalence of the tapeworm Ligula intestinalis correlated with the suppression of aromatase activity, the exact causes for the regional decrease in brain aromatase activity remain unclear due to inconsistencies of these correlations between sampling events or gender.     

Spatial characterization of bark beetle infestations by a multidate synergy of SPOT and Landsat imagery

Biological infestations in forests, e.g. the insect outbreaks, have been shown as favoured by future climate change trends. In Europe, the European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus L.) is one of the main agents causing substantial economic disturbances in forests. Therefore, studies on spatio-temporal characterization of the area affected by bark beetle are of major importance for rapid post-attack management. We aimed at spatially detecting damage classes by combining multidate remote sensing data and a non-parametric classification. As study site served a part of the Bavarian Forest National Park (Germany). For the analysis, we used 10 geometrically rectified scenes of Landsat and SPOT sensors in the period between 2001 and 2011. The main objective was to explore the potential of medium-resolution data for classifying the attacked areas. A further aim was to explore if the temporally adjacent infested areas are able to be separated. The random forest (RF) model was applied using the reference data drawn from high-resolution aerial imagery. The results indicate that the sufficiently large patches of visually identifiable damage classes can be accurately separated from non-attacked areas. In contrast to those, the other mortality classes (current year, current year 1 and current year 2 infested classes) were mostly classified with higher commission or omission errors as well as higher classification biases. The available medium-resolution satellite images, combined with properly acquired reference data, are concluded to be adequate tools to map area-based infestations at advanced stages. However, the quality of reference data, the size of infested patches and the spectral resolution of remotely sensed data are the decisive factors in case of smaller areas. Further attempts using auxiliary height information and spatially enhanced data may refine such an approach.