Predator–prey models: an application for the plankton dynamics of lake Geneva

In this paper we present a hierarchical Bayesian analysis for a predator–prey model applied to ecology considering the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. We consider the introduction of a random effect in the model and the presence of a covariate vector. An application to ecology is considered using a data set related to the plankton dynamics of lake Geneva for the year 1990. We also discuss some aspects of discrimination of the proposed models.     

The impact of the BP Baker report

Introduction

This study examined the impact of the British Petroleum (BP) Baker Panel Report, reviewing the March 2005 BP-Texas City explosion, on the field of process safety.

Method

Three hundred eighty-four subscribers of a process safety listserv responded to a survey two years after the BP Baker Report was published.

Results

Results revealed respondents in the field of process safety are familiar with the BP Baker Report, feel it is important to the future safety of chemical processing, and believe that the findings are generalizable to other plants beyond BP-Texas City. Respondents indicated that few organizations have administered the publicly available BP Process Safety Culture Survey. Our results also showed that perceptions of contractors varied depending on whether respondents were part of processing organizations (internal perspective) or government or consulting agencies (external perspective).

Conclusions

This research provides some insight into the beliefs of chemical processing personnel regarding the transportability and generalizability of lessons learned from one organization to another.

Impact on Industry

This study has implications for both organizational scientists and engineers in that it reveals perceptions about the primary mechanism used to share lessons learned within one industry about one major catastrophe (i.e., investigation reports). This study provides preliminary information about the perceived impact of a report such as this one.     

Modulation of attention and urgent decisions by affect-laden roadside advertisement in risky driving scenarios

In road safety literature the effects of emotional content and salience of advertising billboards have been scarcely investigated. The main aim of this work was to uncover how affect-laden roadside advertisements can affect attention – eye-movements – and subsequent risky decisions – braking – on the Honda Riding Trainer motorcycle simulator. Results indicated that the number of fixations and total fixation time elicited by the negative and positive emotional advertisements were larger than the neutral ones. At the same time, negative pictures got later gaze disengagement than positive and neutral ones. This attentional capture results in less eye fixation times on the road relevant region, where the important driving events happen. Finally, the negative emotional valence advertisements sped up braking on subsequent risky situations. Overall results demonstrated how advertisements with emotional content modulate attention allocation and driving decisions in risky situations and might be helpful for designing roadside advertisements regulations and risk prevention programs.     

Occupational accidents model based on risk–injury affinity groups

This article sets outs a generalized utility model for the diagnosis and prediction of accidents among the Spanish workforce. Based on observational data classified into a risk–injury contingency table (19 × 19), we have summarized the accident rate of all Spanish companies over an 11-year period (75,19,732 accidents). By using correspondence analysis a structure composed of three axes can be obtained, the combination of which identifies three separate risk and injury groups, which we use as a general Spanish pattern. The relationships of greater affinity or likelihood amongst the risks and injuries identified in the pattern facilitate decision-making at the risk-assessment stage in Spanish companies. Each risk–injury group has its own characteristics, interpretable within the phenomenological framework of the accident.The main advantage of this model is its potential application to any other country and the feasibility of contrasting results from different countries. One limiting factor, however, is that the model currently lacks a common classification frame for risks and injuries which would enhance this contrast. The aim of this model is to automatically manage work-related accidents at a national level.     

The development of probabilistic models to estimate accident risk (due to runway overrun and landing undershoot) applicable to the design and construction of runway safety areas

The risks of landing overrun (LDOR – LanDing OverRun), Take-off Overrun (TOOR – Take-Off OverRun) and landing undershoot (LDUS – LanDing UnderShoot) are dependent on multiple factors related to operating conditions. These include wind, runway surface conditions, landing or take-off distances required, the presence of obstacles, runway distance available, the existence and dimensions of runway safety areas.In this paper we propose risk models for runway overrun and landing undershoot, using a probabilistic approach. These models are supported by historical data on accidents in the area around the runway and will enable us to determine if the risk level is acceptable or whether action must be taken to mitigate such risks at a given airport. Furthermore, these models permit comparison of the results of different risk mitigation actions in terms of operational risk and safety.The principal advantage of this method is the high quality results obtained for a limited investment in terms of time, computing power and data. As such the method is extremely practical and easy to apply in aerodrome planning, development and operation.     

Distribution and availability of trace elements in municipal solid waste composts

Trace element contamination is one of the main problems linked to the quality of compost, especially when it is produced from urban wastes, which can lead to high levels of some potentially toxic elements such as Cu, Pb or Zn. In this work, the distribution and bioavailability of five elements (Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr and Ni) were studied in five Spanish composts obtained from different feedstocks (municipal solid waste, garden trimmings, sewage sludge and mixed manure). The five composts showed high total concentrations of these elements, which in some cases limited their commercialization due to legal imperatives. First, a physical fractionation of the composts was performed, and the five elements were determined in each size fraction. Their availability was assessed by several methods of extraction (water, CaCl(2)-DTPA, the PBET extract, the TCLP extract, and sodium pyrophosphate), and their chemical distribution was assessed using the BCR sequential extraction procedure. The results showed that the finer fractions were enriched with the elements studied, and that Cu, Pb and Zn were the most potentially problematic ones, due to both their high total concentrations and availability. The partition into the BCR fractions was different for each element, but the differences between composts were scarce. Pb was evenly distributed among the four fractions defined in the BCR (soluble, oxidizable, reducible and residual); Cu was mainly found in the oxidizable fraction, linked to organic matter, and Zn was mainly associated to the reducible fraction (iron oxides), while Ni and Cr were mainly present almost exclusively in the residual fraction. It was not possible to establish a univocal relation between trace elements availability and their BCR fractionation. Given the differences existing for the availability and distribution of these elements, which not always were related to their total concentrations, we think that legal limits should consider availability, in order to achieve a more realistic assessment of the risks linked to compost use.     

Monitoring of pharmaceutically active compounds on the Guadalquivir River basin (Spain): occurrence and risk assessment

Guadalquivir River (South of Spain) is among the major freshwater sources of the European Atlantic basin. Until now scientific efforts have been focused on contamination by heavy metals and some priority pollutants in Guadalquivir River. However, the presence of "emerging contaminants", such as pharmaceutically active compounds, has not yet been studied. In this work the occurrence and risk assessment of sixteen pharmaceutically active compounds, belonging to different therapeutic groups, in Guadalquivir River during its course through Seville city are reported. Wastewater effluents from four wastewater treatment plants discharging into Guadalquivir River and river water samples were analyzed. All studied pharmaceutically active compounds, except sulfamethoxazole, trimethoprim, estrone and clofibric acid, were detected in effluent wastewaters at concentration levels up to 28.9 μg L(-1). Among the pharmaceutically active compounds found in effluent wastewater, seven were present in Guadalquivir River samples at concentration levels up to 0.75 μg L(-1), which indicated an important dilution from effluent discharge. Environmental risk assessment reveals that potential ecotoxicological risk cannot be expected on Guadalquivir River at measured concentration levels. Only, the lipid regulator gemfibrozil showed a medium risk for the environment. The risk for acute toxic effects in the environment with the current use of active pharmaceutical ingredients is unlikely. However, the results do not rule out the potential for chronic environmental effects.     

Amplified ribosomal DNA restriction analysis as a routine tool to assess toxicant driven changes in hindgut bacterial populations of Porcellio dilatatus (Crustacea: Isopoda)

Changes in saprophytic organism's gut microbial communities may present a threat to organic matter breakdown which can ultimately lead to soil function impairment. In this study, Amplified Ribosomal DNA Restriction Analysis (ARDRA) was evaluated as a potential simple molecular tool to assess shifts in bacterial community structure in hindgut populations of Porcellio dilatatus exposed to contaminated food. This prospective tool can also be used for a variety of purposes and samples prior to the use of more specific and sophisticated methods.     

Tracking sewage derived contamination in riverine settings by analysis of synthetic surfactants

A study has been made of the presence and reactivity of the most commonly used surfactants, both anionic (linear alkylbenzene sulfonates, LAS, and alkyl ethoxysulfates, AES) and non-ionic (alcohol polyethoxylates, AEOs, and nonylphenol polyethoxylates, NPEOs), in water and surface sediments from the middle stretch of the Guadalete River in SW Spain (12 stations). Average values were between 0.1 and 3.7 mg kg(-1) in sediment, and between 0.2 and 37 μg L(-1) in water. The sorption of surfactants was dominated by hydrophobic mechanisms, so those homologues having longer alkyl chains (e.g. C(18)AEO) showed higher relative percentages and concentrations in sediments compared with water. Local and sharply higher concentrations of these compounds were observed at three sampling stations (7, 9 and 12), indicating the occurrence of wastewater discharges into the river. By analysing the distributions of different surfactant homologues and their metabolites we were able to distinguish between sewage contamination from sources discharging treated and untreated wastewaters. Upstream (stations 1-2), LAS concentrations were below 30 μg L(-1) and the composition of their degradation intermediates (sulfophenyl carboxylic acids, SPCs) (160 μg L(-1)) was dominated by short-chain homologues (C(6)-C(9)SPCs), indicating that the degradation of this surfactant is at an advanced stage. The highest concentration (487 μg L(-1)) of SPCs was detected near the effluent outlet of a sewage treatment plant (STP) (station 12). Sampling stations (7 and 9) affected by untreated wastewater discharges were the only ones showing the presence of the most reactive and biodegradable SPC isomers and homologues (e.g. C(11)SPC). Here, LAS reached the highest concentration values measured (>2 mg L(-1)), and showed a homologue distribution closer to that of commercial mixtures than LAS found at the other stations.