Prenatal screening and diagnosis of neural tube defects

This review article discusses prenatal screening and diagnosis of neural tube defects (NTD). High detection rates occur in countries operating ultrasound screening programmes because classical two-dimensional ultrasound cranial signs (lemon shaped head, banana cerebellum, ventriculomegaly) are important diagnostic clues to the presence of spina bifida. Careful evaluation of both the spine and a search for other abnormalities is warranted. Important prognostic information for spina bifida relates to the lesion level, with a “watershed” between L3 and L4 marking a very high chance of being wheelchair bound with the higher lesions. Three-dimensional ultrasound using multiplanar views can achieve diagnostic accuracy within one vertebral body in around 80% of patients. There are high rates of pregnancy termination for spina bifida in many European countries, but the use of new imagining techniques allow better prediction of outcome, and consequently a refinement of prenatal counselling. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Distribution of tritium in estuarine waters: the role of organic matter

Tritium is an important environmental radionuclide whose reactivity with ligands and solids in aquatic systems is assumed to be limited. We studied the fractionation and sorption of tritium (added as tritiated water) in river water and seawater, and found that its distribution appears to be influenced by its affinity for organic matter. Tritium rapidly equilibrates with dissolved organic ligands that are retained by a reverse-phase C18 column, and with suspended sediment particles. Significantly, a measurable fraction of sorbed tritium associates with proteinaceous material that is potentially available to sediment-feeding organisms. These characteristics have not been reported previously and cannot be accounted for solely by isotopic exchange with hydrogen. Nevertheless, they are in qualitative agreement with available measurements of tritium in estuarine and coastal waters where its principal discharge is as tritiated water. Further research into the estuarine biogeochemical behaviour of tritium is required and radiological distribution coefficients and concentration factors that are assumed for this radionuclide may require reconsideration.     

A new approach to estimation of methane emission rates from landfills

Methane emission monitoring has become increasingly essential for diffusive area sources, especially for landfills, which contribute to a significant fraction of the total anthropogenic methane emission globally. Statutorily, methane emission rate from landfills in Germany shall be examined on a semiannual basis; however, an appropriate approach has yet to be developed and adopted for general use. In this study, a new method is proposed based on experimental results, which utilizes a TDLAS (Tunable Diode Laser Absorption Spectroscopy) instrument – GasFinder2.0® system and a dispersion model LASAT (Lagrangian Simulation of Aerosol Transport) as the measurement device and calculation model, respectively. Between April 2010 and December 2011, a research project was conducted at a pilot scale landfill in the south of Germany. Drawing on the extensive research into this pilot project, an effective strategy of measurement setup was determined. Methane concentration was measured with GasFinder2.0® system in the upstream and downstream sections of the project site, while wind and turbulence data were measured simultaneously by an ultrasonic anemometer. The average methane emission rate from the source can be calculated by using the results as input data in the dispersion model. With this method, site-specific measurement approaches can be designed for not only landfills, but also different diffusive area sources with less workload and lower cost compared to conventional FID (Flame Ionization Detector) method.     

The role of risk perceptions in the risk mitigation process: The case of wildfire in high risk communities

An important policy question receiving considerable attention concerns the risk perception–risk mitigation process that guides how individuals choose to address natural hazard risks. This question is considered in the context of wildfire. We analyze the factors that influence risk reduction behaviors by homeowners living in the wildland–urban interface. The factors considered are direct experience, knowledge of wildfire risk, locus of responsibility, fulltime/seasonal status, and self-efficacy. Survey data from three homeowner associations in the western U.S. are used to estimate the direct and indirect effects of this relationship. Our results indicate that the effects of knowledge and locus of responsibility are mediated by homeowners' risk perceptions. We also find that beliefs of self-efficacy and fulltime/seasonal status have a direct influence on risk reduction behaviors. Finally, we find, surprisingly, that direct experience with wildfire does not directly influence the risk perception–risk mitigation process.     

Twin–twin transfusion syndrome: mathematical modelling

Twin–twin transfusion syndrome (TTTS) represents a pregnancy complication with a high risk for perinatal mortality and postnatal morbidity. Mathematical models have been utilized to examine the mechanisms of disease and potential treatment modalities. We developed four consecutive models based on pathophysiology mechanisms. Conceptually, these models remained simple, but with increased complexity in details. We present our models tutorially with the necessary equations expressed in words. The aetiology of TTTS was related to AV anastomoses from donor to recipient and their growth commensurate with placental growth. We assessed that natural growth of placenta and foetuses causes the diameter and length of the AV, as well as the AV's pressure gradient, to increase proportional to gestational age. The AV transfusion then increases faster than natural foetal growth. A progressively increasing discordance subsequently develops, not compensated for by foetal growth. A simulation is performed to show how this discordance in blood volumetric development causes successive discordances in other functions, particularly renal, circulatory, and cardio-vascular, resulting in disease progression to the various stages of TTTS. In conclusion, mathematical modelling of TTTS has provided an understanding of the sequence of events that leads to the various presentations of TTTS stages as well as the efficacy of therapies. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploring alternative states in ecological systems with a qualitative analysis of community feedback

Demonstrating and predicting the existence of alternative states in natural communities remains a challenge for ecologists and is essential for resource managers. Positive feedback is often presented as central in maintaining alternative ecosystem states, but no formal approach relates this part of theory to real world applications. Through qualitative modelling of community response to long-term perturbations, we define generic mechanistic links between positive feedback and the occurrence of alternative states. Positive feedback diminishes a system's overall resistance to change, and can create and maintain correlations in the relative abundance of variables that coincide with alternative states.Through specific models of the dynamics of Tasmanian rocky-reef communities, which are affected by climate and fishing and persist within alternative states, we demonstrate the ability of our theoretical framework to predict alternative states in ecosystems and inform management intervention. A qualitative knowledge of community structure permits a thorough analysis of system feedback and an assessment of the potential for an ecosystem to exhibit alternative states. We illustrate the usefulness of the approach to inform management priorities, and to focus monitoring and field research on the key drivers of ecosystem dynamics.     

Stream Temperature Relationships to Forest Harvest in Western Washington1

Abstract: We compared summer stream temperature patterns in 40 small forested watersheds in the Hoh and Clearwater basins in the western Olympic Peninsula, Washington, to examine correlations between previous riparian and basin‐wide timber harvest activity and stream temperatures. Seven watersheds were unharvested, while the remaining 33 had between 25% and 100% of the total basin harvested, mostly within the last 40 years. Mean daily maximum temperatures were significantly different between the harvested and unharvested basins, averaging 14.5°C and 12.1°C, respectively. Diurnal fluctuations between harvested and unharvested basins were also significantly different, averaging 1.7°C and 0.9°C, respectively. Total basin harvest was correlated with average daily maximum temperature (r² = 0.39), as was total riparian harvest (r² = 0.32). The amount of recently clear‐cut riparian forest (<20 year) within 600 m upstream of our monitoring sites ranged from 0% to 100% and was not correlated to increased stream temperatures. We used Akaike’s Information Criteria (AIC) analysis to assess whether other physical variables could explain some of the observed variation in stream temperature. We found that variables related to elevation, slope, aspect, and geology explain between 5% and 14% more of the variability relative to the variability explained by percent of basin harvested (BasHarv), and that the BasHarv was consistently a better predictor than the amount of riparian forest harvested. While the BasHarv is in all of the models that perform well, the AIC analysis shows that there are many models with two variables that perform about the same and therefore it would be difficult to choose one as the best model. We conclude that adding additional variables to the model does not change the basic findings that there is a relatively strong relationship between maximum daily stream temperatures and the total amount of harvest in a basin, and strong, but slightly weaker relationship between maximum daily stream temperatures and the total riparian harvest in a basin. Seventeen of the 40 streams exceeded the Washington State Department of Ecology’s (DOE) temperature criterion for waters defined as “core salmon and trout habitat” (class AA waters). The DOE temperature criterion for class AA waters is any seven‐day average of daily maximum temperatures in excess of 16°C. The probability of a stream exceeding the water quality standard increased with timber harvest activity. All unharvested sites and five of six sites that had 25‐50% harvest met DOEs water quality standard. In contrast, only nine of eighteen sites with 50‐75% harvest and two of nine sites with >75% harvest met DOEs water quality standard. Many streams with extensive canopy closure, as estimated by the age of riparian trees, still had higher temperatures and greater diurnal fluctuations than the unharvested basins. This suggests that the impact of past forest harvest activities on stream temperatures cannot be entirely mitigated through the reestablishment of riparian buffers.