The role of risk perceptions in the risk mitigation process: The case of wildfire in high risk communities

An important policy question receiving considerable attention concerns the risk perception–risk mitigation process that guides how individuals choose to address natural hazard risks. This question is considered in the context of wildfire. We analyze the factors that influence risk reduction behaviors by homeowners living in the wildland–urban interface. The factors considered are direct experience, knowledge of wildfire risk, locus of responsibility, fulltime/seasonal status, and self-efficacy. Survey data from three homeowner associations in the western U.S. are used to estimate the direct and indirect effects of this relationship. Our results indicate that the effects of knowledge and locus of responsibility are mediated by homeowners' risk perceptions. We also find that beliefs of self-efficacy and fulltime/seasonal status have a direct influence on risk reduction behaviors. Finally, we find, surprisingly, that direct experience with wildfire does not directly influence the risk perception–risk mitigation process.     

Twin–twin transfusion syndrome: mathematical modelling

Twin–twin transfusion syndrome (TTTS) represents a pregnancy complication with a high risk for perinatal mortality and postnatal morbidity. Mathematical models have been utilized to examine the mechanisms of disease and potential treatment modalities. We developed four consecutive models based on pathophysiology mechanisms. Conceptually, these models remained simple, but with increased complexity in details. We present our models tutorially with the necessary equations expressed in words. The aetiology of TTTS was related to AV anastomoses from donor to recipient and their growth commensurate with placental growth. We assessed that natural growth of placenta and foetuses causes the diameter and length of the AV, as well as the AV's pressure gradient, to increase proportional to gestational age. The AV transfusion then increases faster than natural foetal growth. A progressively increasing discordance subsequently develops, not compensated for by foetal growth. A simulation is performed to show how this discordance in blood volumetric development causes successive discordances in other functions, particularly renal, circulatory, and cardio-vascular, resulting in disease progression to the various stages of TTTS. In conclusion, mathematical modelling of TTTS has provided an understanding of the sequence of events that leads to the various presentations of TTTS stages as well as the efficacy of therapies. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploring alternative states in ecological systems with a qualitative analysis of community feedback

Demonstrating and predicting the existence of alternative states in natural communities remains a challenge for ecologists and is essential for resource managers. Positive feedback is often presented as central in maintaining alternative ecosystem states, but no formal approach relates this part of theory to real world applications. Through qualitative modelling of community response to long-term perturbations, we define generic mechanistic links between positive feedback and the occurrence of alternative states. Positive feedback diminishes a system's overall resistance to change, and can create and maintain correlations in the relative abundance of variables that coincide with alternative states.Through specific models of the dynamics of Tasmanian rocky-reef communities, which are affected by climate and fishing and persist within alternative states, we demonstrate the ability of our theoretical framework to predict alternative states in ecosystems and inform management intervention. A qualitative knowledge of community structure permits a thorough analysis of system feedback and an assessment of the potential for an ecosystem to exhibit alternative states. We illustrate the usefulness of the approach to inform management priorities, and to focus monitoring and field research on the key drivers of ecosystem dynamics.     

Stream Temperature Relationships to Forest Harvest in Western Washington1

Abstract: We compared summer stream temperature patterns in 40 small forested watersheds in the Hoh and Clearwater basins in the western Olympic Peninsula, Washington, to examine correlations between previous riparian and basin‐wide timber harvest activity and stream temperatures. Seven watersheds were unharvested, while the remaining 33 had between 25% and 100% of the total basin harvested, mostly within the last 40 years. Mean daily maximum temperatures were significantly different between the harvested and unharvested basins, averaging 14.5°C and 12.1°C, respectively. Diurnal fluctuations between harvested and unharvested basins were also significantly different, averaging 1.7°C and 0.9°C, respectively. Total basin harvest was correlated with average daily maximum temperature (r² = 0.39), as was total riparian harvest (r² = 0.32). The amount of recently clear‐cut riparian forest (<20 year) within 600 m upstream of our monitoring sites ranged from 0% to 100% and was not correlated to increased stream temperatures. We used Akaike’s Information Criteria (AIC) analysis to assess whether other physical variables could explain some of the observed variation in stream temperature. We found that variables related to elevation, slope, aspect, and geology explain between 5% and 14% more of the variability relative to the variability explained by percent of basin harvested (BasHarv), and that the BasHarv was consistently a better predictor than the amount of riparian forest harvested. While the BasHarv is in all of the models that perform well, the AIC analysis shows that there are many models with two variables that perform about the same and therefore it would be difficult to choose one as the best model. We conclude that adding additional variables to the model does not change the basic findings that there is a relatively strong relationship between maximum daily stream temperatures and the total amount of harvest in a basin, and strong, but slightly weaker relationship between maximum daily stream temperatures and the total riparian harvest in a basin. Seventeen of the 40 streams exceeded the Washington State Department of Ecology’s (DOE) temperature criterion for waters defined as “core salmon and trout habitat” (class AA waters). The DOE temperature criterion for class AA waters is any seven‐day average of daily maximum temperatures in excess of 16°C. The probability of a stream exceeding the water quality standard increased with timber harvest activity. All unharvested sites and five of six sites that had 25‐50% harvest met DOEs water quality standard. In contrast, only nine of eighteen sites with 50‐75% harvest and two of nine sites with >75% harvest met DOEs water quality standard. Many streams with extensive canopy closure, as estimated by the age of riparian trees, still had higher temperatures and greater diurnal fluctuations than the unharvested basins. This suggests that the impact of past forest harvest activities on stream temperatures cannot be entirely mitigated through the reestablishment of riparian buffers.     

Effect of light Sphagnum peat on odour formation in the early stages of biowaste composting

In the present study, we investigated the effects of two bulking materials, Sphagnum peat and pine wood chips, on the early stages of biowaste composting in two pilot-scale processes. Emphasis was placed on studying the formation conditions of malodorous compost gases in the initial phases of the processes. The results showed that gas emission leaving an open windrow and a closed drum composting system contained elevated concentrations of fermentative microbial metabolites when acid Sphagnum peat (pH 3.2) was used as a bulking material. Moreover, the gas emission of the peat amended drum composter contained a high concentration of odour (up to 450,000 ou m^?3 of air). The highest odour values in the outlet gas of peat amended composts coincided with the elevated concentrations of volatile organic compounds such as acetoin and buthanedion. We conclude that the acidifying qualities of composting substrates or bulking material may intensify odour emission from biowaste composts and prolong the early stages of the composting process.     

Determination of ammonia and hydrogen sulfide emissions from a commercial dairy farm with an exercise yard and the health-related impact for residents

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Airborne emissions from concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) have the potential to pose a risk to human health and the environment. Here, we...     

Predicting long-term development of abandoned subalpine conifer forests in the Swiss National Park

In the past 35 years, various kinds of dynamic models have been used to study vegetation development during primary or secondary succession. Typically, one specific model or models with the same conceptual background were employed. It remains largely unknown to what extent such model-based findings, e.g., on the speed of succession, depend on the specific model approach.To address this issue, we estimated the time elapsing during secondary succession in subalpine conifer forests of the Swiss National Park using three models of different conceptual background: (i) a forest gap model, (ii) a Markov chain model, and (iii) a minimum spanning tree model.Starting from a 95- to 125-year-old mountain pine (Pinus montana Miller) forest, all three models predicted a similar successional development. Even though the forest gap model and the Markov chain model are based on totally different approaches and were calibrated using different data sets, they both forecasted that it would take 500–550 years to reach a late-successional forest stage. The minimum spanning tree model, which only reveals a certain number of time steps yielding a minimum time estimate, showed a development of tree density (stems/ha) that was similar to the results of the forest gap model, but a strict quantitative comparison is not feasible.Our study shows that modeling forest development using three different approaches is quite powerful to obtain a robust estimate of the speed of forest succession. In our case, this estimate is higher than what has been suggested in previous studies that investigated secondary forest succession. The use of several approaches allows for a more comprehensive analysis in terms of variables covered (e.g., relative forest cover in the Markov approach vs. stand-scale species composition in the forest gap model). We recommend that in studies focusing on the speed of succession, several models should be employed simultaneously to identify inconsistencies in our knowledge and to increase confidence in the results.     

Noninvasive prenatal diagnosis of fetal blood group phenotypes: current practice and future prospects

Fetuses of women with alloantibodies to RhD (D) are at risk from hemolytic disease of the fetus and newborn, but only if the fetal red cells are D-positive. In such pregnancies, it is beneficial to determine fetal D type, as this will affect the management of the pregnancy. It is possible to predict, with a high level of accuracy, fetal blood group phenotypes from genotyping tests on fetal DNA. The best source is the small quantity of fetal DNA in the blood of pregnant women, as this avoids the requirement for invasive procedures of amniocentesis or chorionic villus sampling (CVS). Many laboratories worldwide now provide noninvasive fetal D genotyping as a routine service for alloimmunized women, and some also test for c, E, C and K. In many countries, anti-D immunoglobulin injections are offered to D-negative pregnant women, to reduce the chances of prenatal immunization, even though up to 40% of these women will have a D-negative fetus. High-throughput, noninvasive fetal D genotyping technologies are being developed so that unnecessary treatment of pregnant women can be avoided. Trials suggest that fetal D typing of all D-negative pregnant women is feasible and should become common practice in the near future. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.