Community Capacity for Adaptation to Climate-Induced Water Shortages: Linking Institutional Complexity and Local Actors

There is growing concern for the capacity of urban and rural communities to manage current water shortages and to prepare for shortages that may accompany predicted changes in climate. In this paper, concepts relating to the notion of climate adaptation and particularly capacity building are used to elucidate several determinants of community-level capacity for water management. These concepts and criteria are then used to interpret empirically derived insights relating to local management of water shortages in Ontario, Canada. General determinants of water-related community capacity relate to upper tier political and institutional arrangements; the characteristics of, and relationships among, pertinent agencies, groups, or individuals involved in water management; and the adequacy of financial, human, information, and technical resources. The case analysis illustrates how general factors play out in local experience. The findings point to geographically specific factors that influence the effectiveness of management. Key factors include collaboration between water managers, clarification of agency roles and responsibilities, integration of water management and land-use planning, and recognition and participation of both urban and rural stakeholders, whose sensitivities to water shortages are spatially and temporally variable.     

Physical modelling of the composting environment: a review. Part 2: Simulation performance

This paper reviews previously published heat balance data for experimental and full-scale composting reactors, and then presents an evaluation of the simulation performance of laboratory and pilot-scale reactors, using both quantitative and qualitative temperature profile characteristics. The review indicates that laboratory-scale reactors have typically demonstrated markedly different heat balance behaviour in comparison to full-scale systems, with ventilative heat losses of 36-67%, and 70-95% of the total flux, respectively. Similarly, conductive/convective/radiative (CCR) heat losses from laboratory reactors have been reported at 33-62% of the total flux, whereas CCR losses from full-scale composting systems have ranged from 3% to 15% of the total. Full-scale windrow temperature-time profiles from the literature were characterised by the present authors. Areas bounded by the curve and a 40 degrees C baseline (A(40)) exceeded 624 degrees C. days, areas bounded by the curve and a 55 degrees C baseline (A(55)) exceeded 60 degrees C days, and times at 40 and 55 degrees C were >46 days and >24 days, respectively, over periods of 50-74 days. For forced aeration systems at full scale, values of A(40) exceeded 224 degrees C days, values of A(55) exceeded 26 degrees C days, and times at 40 and 55 degrees C were >14 days and >10 days, respectively, over periods of 15-35 days. Values of these four parameters for laboratory-scale reactors were typically considerably lower than for the full-scale systems, although temperature shape characteristics were often similar to those in full-scale profiles. Evaluation of laboratory-, pilot- and full-scale profiles from systems treating the same substrate showed that a laboratory-scale reactor and two pilot-scale reactors operated at comparatively high aeration rates poorly simulated full-scale temperature profiles. However, the curves from two moderately insulated, self-heating, pilot-scale reactors operated at relatively low aeration rates appeared to closely replicate full-scale temperature profiles. The importance of controlling aeration rates and CCR losses is discussed and further work suggested in order to investigate the links between simulation of the composting environment and process performance.     

An unusual tricentric X chromosome detected prenatally

We describe a female fetus with a de novo X chromosome rearrangement detected prenatally in both chorion villi and a pleural effusion. Chromosome painting showed the chromosome to be composed entirely of X chromosome material, while G-banding indicated a duplication of X short arms, four copies of the proximal long arm, and deletion of the distal long arm of the X. C-banding showed the presence of one active and two inactive centromeres and X-inactivation studies demonstrated the tricentric chromosome to be late replicating in all cells examined. The origin of this complex de novo rearrangement appears to have involved two separate breakage events, the first leading to the production of a dicentric X chromosome and the second generating the tricentric X.     

A survey of benthic invertebrates in the Suwannee River,Florida

Benthic invertebrate communities were surveyed in a 233 km reach of the middle and lower Suwannee River in Northwestern Florida in the winter 1987 and early summer 1988 to determine their abundance and distribution as potential foods of the Gulf sturgeon, Acipenser oxyrhynchus desotoi, and to determine the effects of possible natural and human-induced disturbances to the communities. In substrates of the tidal oligohaline to mesohaline lower reach of the East Pass site I (km 2) and site II West Pass (km 5) near the Gulf of Mexico, densities of tube dwelling and free swimming amphipods, polychaetes, oligochaetes, and dipterans in the PONAR grabs were moderate (100–999 {iex} individuals/m²) to abundant (1000–9999 {iex} individuals m^–2). Also, at sites I and II, low (10–99 {iex} individuals m^–2) to moderate densities of dipteran Chironomidae and olive nerite snail were collected in hardboard multiplate artificial substrate samplers. Diversities of benthic invertebrates in both grabs and hardboard multiplates were relatively low. Baetid mayflies were moderately abundant in the dip net samples. Upriver from sites I and II, the transition of an oligohaline tolerant benthic community to a freshwater one was abrupt due to strong freshwater flow. At sites III (km 48) and IV (km 89), benthic invertebrate populations were low to moderate in hardboard multiplate and dip net samples. In the middle reach (km 101 to km 233), aquatic insects were predominant and included; chironomids, mayflies, and beetles, and also, freshwater gammarid amphipods, gastropods, and the Asian clam. In winter, the bottom substrates at sites VII (km 153) and VIII (km 205) contained diverse and dense populations of Chironomidae (5932 m^–2), the greatest density for a major taxonomic group recorded in this survey. Crayfish were collected in low densities only in artificial substrate samplers from sites IV to IX. Leeches were widespread in the study area. Empirical Biotic Index values that reflect impacts of organic wastes on benthic invertebrate communities were within a narrow range, 3.16 to 6.38, and indicated slightly enriched to enriched water. Of the total 186 benthic invertebrate taxa, 82% had quality values 0 to 5 that indicate overall clean water conditions. The predominant benthic invertebrates in the Suwannee River were detritivorous and the communities reflected oligotrophic to mesotrophic waters.     

Human Culture and Large Carnivore Conservation in North America

We examined and compared human attitudes toward wolves ( Canis lupus ), grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos horribilis ), and mountain lions ( Puma concolor ) in North America, with an emphasis on the Rocky Mountains of the United States and Canada. Primary research, literature review, and secondary data were included in the analysis. Wolves were historically persecuted by Euro-American settlers, but they have been the focus of a significant attitudinal transformation during the latter half of this century. Many now view the wolf in positive and protective ways. Considerable variation remains, however, in contemporary attitudes. Attitudes toward mountain lions have been highly ambivalent, never assuming the prominence or clarity of views on wolves. The behavior and physiology of the species, along with human psychological factors, are important reasons for the difference in human perceptions of wolves and mountain lions. We also examined attitudes toward grizzly bears. Many indigenous cultures revered grizzly bears, although European settlers were interested in exploiting and eliminating them. Today, perceptions of grizzly bears range from positive to negative. Our recommendations include targeting key groups with education programs, building support through the use of spokespeople within the target groups, integrating human and ecological concerns, and designing species-specific education initiatives in some cases.     

The role of herbicides in the erosion of salt marshes in eastern England

Laboratory studies and field trials were conducted to investigate the role of herbicides on saltmarsh vegetation, and their possible significance to saltmarsh erosion. Herbicide concentrations within the ranges present in the aquatic environment were found to reduce the photosynthetic efficiency and growth of both epipelic diatoms and higher saltmarsh plants in the laboratory and in situ. The addition of sublethal concentrations of herbicides resulted in decreased growth rates and photosynthetic efficiency of diatoms and photosynthetic efficiency of higher plants. Sediment stability also decreased due to a reduction in diatom EPS production. There was qualitative evidence that diatoms migrated deeper into the sediment when the surface was exposed to simazine, reducing surface sediment stability by the absence of a cohesive biofilm. Sediment loads on leaves severely reduced photosynthesis in Limonium vulgare. This, coupled with reduced carbon assimilation from the effects of herbicides, could have large negative consequences for plant productivity and over winter survival of saltmarsh plants. The data support the hypothesis that sublethal herbicide concentrations could be playing a role in the increased erosion of salt marshes that has occurred over the past 40 years.     

Is daily mortality associated specifically with fine particles? Data reconstruction and replication of analyses

In 1996, Schwartz, Dockery, and Neas reported that daily mortality was more strongly associated with concentrations of PM2.5 than with concentrations of larger particles (coarse mass [CM]) in six U.S. cities ("original paper"/"original analyses"). Because of the public policy implications of the findings and the uniqueness of the concentration data, we undertook a reanalysis of these results. This paper presents results of the reconstruction of these data and replication of the original analyses using the reconstructed data. The original investigators provided particulate air pollution data for this paper. Daily weather and daily counts of total and cause-specific deaths were reconstructed from original public records. The reconstructed particulate air pollution and weather data were consistent with the summaries presented in the original paper. Daily counts of deaths in the reconstructed data set were lower than in the original paper because of restrictions on residence and place of death. The reconstruction process identified an administrative change in county codes that led to higher numbers of deaths in St. Louis. Despite these differences in daily counts of deaths, the estimated effects of particulate air pollution from the reconstructed dataset, using analytic methods as described in the original paper, produced combined effect estimates essentially equivalent to the originally published results. For example, the estimated association of a 10 micrograms/m3 increase in 2-day mean particulate air pollution on total mortality was 1.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.9-1.7%, t = 6.53) for PM2.5 based on the reconstructed dataset, compared to the originally reported association of 1.5% (95% CI 1.1-1.9%, t = 7.41). For coarse particles, the estimated association from the reconstructed dataset was 0.4% (95% CI -0.2-0.9%, t = 1.43) compared to the originally reported association of 0.4% (95% CI -0.1-1.0%, t = 1.48). These results from the reconstructed data suggest that the original results reported by Schwartz, Dockery, and Neas were essentially replicated.     

An evaluation of benthic macroinvertebrate biomass methodology

This study shows that biological assessments of water quality status using biomass estimates of wet, dry, and ash-free dry weights and counts of individual organisms from a small, headwater stream in southwestern Ohio provide essentially similar results concerning the impact of a sewage treatment plant discharge. Of the indices of biotic status for the stream segment employed for data evaluation; Diversity Index (D), Community Diversity Index (d), Trophic Condition Index (TCI), and Empirical Biotic Index (EBI), the latter two provided evaluations most consistent with benchmark water chemistry and physics information concerning the trophic status of the stream. In addition, the percent composition of macro-invertebrate taxa by pollutional category; clean water, facultative, and pollution tolerant, as ascribed using TCI and EBI ranges for individual taxa collected in combination of Ekman grab, rock-filled basket sampler and drift net samples, proves adequate for interpretation of biotic status.     

An economic model of ecolabeling

Firms would like to capitalize on consumers' willingness to pay more for goods that use environmentally friendly production techniques, but have difficulty credibly conveying their environmental friendliness. One possible remedy is “ecolabeling,” where a third party certifies firms' products. To model this phenomenon, I analyzed a market characterized by asymmetric information in which firms decide whether to seek an ecolabel. Market equilibrium is discussed in three settings: where both technologies and outputs are fixed (so the only choice is whether to seek certification), where technologies are fixed but outputs are not, and where firms can choose both technology and output.     

Aerosol Research and Inhalation Epidemiological Study (ARIES): air quality and daily mortality statistical modeling--interim results

The Aerosol Research and Inhalation Epidemiological Study (ARIES) is an EPRI-sponsored project to collect air quality and meteorological data at a single site in northwestern Atlanta, GA. Seventy high-resolution air quality indicators (AQIs) are used to examine statistical relationships between air quality and health outcome end points. Contemporaneous mortality data are collected for Fulton and DeKalb counties in Georgia. Currently, 12 months of air quality and weather data are available for analysis, from August 1998 through July 1999. The interim mortality analysis used Poisson regression in generalized additive models (GAMs). The estimated log-linear association of mortality with various AQIs was adjusted for smoothed functions of time and meteorological data. The analysis considered daily deaths due to all nonaccidental causes, deaths to persons 65 years or older, and deaths in each of the two constituent counties. The fine particle effect associated with the four mortality subgroups, using only today (lag 0), yesterday (lag 1), 2-day average (average of today and yesterday), and first difference (today minus yesterday) measurements of the air quality relative to today's number of deaths was positive for lag 0, lag 1, and 2-day average and positive only for decedents at least 65 years of age using first difference. The t values ranged from 0.81 to 1.15 for lag 0, 1.04 to 1.53 for lag 1, 1.10 to 1.66 for 2-day average, and -0.32 to 0.33 for first difference with 346 or 347 days of data. No statistically significant estimate of the linear coefficient was found for the other 14 air quality variables in our interim analysis for the four mortality subgroups. We discuss diagnostics to support these models. These interim analyses did not include an evaluation of sensitivity to a larger set of lag structures, nonlinear model specifications, multipollutant analyses, alternative weather model and smoothing model specifications, air pollution imputation schemes, or cause-specific mortality indicators, nor did they include a full reporting of model selection or goodness-of-fit indicators. No conclusion can be drawn at this time about whether the findings from subsequent studies have sufficiently greater power to detect effects comparable to those found in other U.S. cities including at least 2 or 3 years of data.