Historical pollution of seldom monitored trace elements in Sweden--Part A: sediment properties and chronological indicators

Sediment cores from four small oligotrophic boreal lakes, with minor acidification, in remote regions of central Sweden were used for historical interpretation of their metal content, with focus on Cu, Cd, Pb and Zn in Lake Stensj?n, which has the longest sediment record (at least two centuries according to (210)Pb dating). Comparison is made with the other three lakes. Major and trace elements in lake water, porewater and the acid-leached (HNO(3)) solid sediment phase was analysed with ICP-MS. In addition, general lake water chemistry, TOC and principal anions were measured in the aqueous phases. Redistribution processes were interpreted from geochemical modelling. The solid/solution distribution of pe/pH sensitive elements, indicates a minor diagenetic redistribution and the concentration profiles are therefore suitable for chronological evaluation. The ratios of Al, Ti, Sc and V, indicated a qualitative shift of sedimenting material a century ago, which did not have any impact on the retention of trace elements. Lead had a concentration profile, supported by the (206)Pb/(207)Pb ratio, where it was possible to distinguish preindustrial conditions, early industrialisation in Europe, industrialisation in Sweden, and the use of leaded petrol after the Second World War. Cadmium showed a similar concentration pattern. The zinc profile resembled that of cadmium, but with less enrichment. Local lithogenic sources are believed to be quantitatively important. The solid/solution distribution (K(d)) was independent of depth for all four elements. The sediment concentrations of copper and zinc are not related to early industrialisation but its concentration has doubled since the Second World War.     

Pollutant dispersion in idealized city models with different urban morphologies

The mechanism of pollutant dispersion in idealized city models is investigated numerically by the introduction of a uniformly distributed pollutant source at street pedestrian level. We first study three short city forms with a single main street or two crossing streets, characterized by street length/street height ratios of L/H = 6 or 7 and a street height/street width ratio of H/W = 1, including a sharp-edged round city model, a smooth-edged round city model, and a sharp-edged square city model. For short city models with a single street and a parallel approaching wind, pollutant dilution mainly depends on the horizontal flow rate which decreases along the street. This decreasing rate is smallest for the smooth-edged round city model, which results in the lowest street concentrations. For city models with two crossing streets and the approaching wind parallel to the main street, the differences in overall city form result in different dispersion processes. For a sharp-edged round city model with two crossing streets, an approaching wind slightly non-parallel to the main street generates a lower pollutant concentration in the entire street volume. We also studied a sharp-edged round city model with one narrow street (L/H = 6; H/W = 6.7), finding that the uniformly distributed pollutants are transported from two street entries to the city centre, and are then removed out across the street roof. In contrast to the short city models we studied a single-street sharp-edged long rectangular city model (L/H = 21.7; H/W = 1) in which the horizontal flow rate remained nearly constant in a region far from the two entries. Within this region the turbulence across the street roof contributed more to the pollutant removal than vertical mean flows.     

Long-term investigation of anthropogenic and naturally occurring radionuclides at reference sites in western Sweden

In case of an accidental release of radioactive substances into the environment, it is important to quickly and reliably estimate the radiation dose received by people in the affected area, and to determine the extent of the contamination. Measurements of the extent of the release and the subsequent contamination can be facilitated if there are predetermined reference sampling sites with known background radiation and inventory of radionuclides. Since 1996, 34 reference sites for soil sampling, field gamma, and intensimeter measurements have been established in western Sweden. Time series data for dose rates and radioisotope inventory have been collected at these sites, allowing for the investigation of changes in these parameters over time. The mass activity densities for the uranium and thorium series elements varied approximately between 10 and 50 Bq/kg and between 10 and 40 Bq/kg, respectively. The mass activity density of ⁴⁰K was approximately in the range 300–800 Bq/kg. The radiation exposure due to ¹³⁷Cs was rather small in this area. The dose rates calculated from in situ measurement data showed that the contribution to the total dose rate was almost entirely due to naturally occurring radionuclides. The measured dose rate was about twice as high as the calculated rate, even after subtracting the contribution from cosmic radiation. This may be explained by the fact that intensimeters generally are calibrated to measure the quantity ambient dose equivalent, which should not underestimate the effective dose.     

Porosity investigation of compacted bentonite using XRD profile modeling

Many countries intend to use compacted bentonite as a barrier in their deep geological repositories for nuclear waste. In order to describe and predict hydraulic conductivity or radionuclide transport through the bentonite barrier, fundamental understanding of the microstructure of compacted bentonite is needed. This study examined the interlayer swelling and overall microstructure of Wyoming Bentonite MX-80 and the corresponding homo-ionic Na(+) and Ca(2+) forms, using XRD with samples saturated under confined swelling conditions and free swelling conditions. For the samples saturated under confined conditions, the interparticle, or so-called free or external porosity was estimated by comparing the experimental interlayer distances obtained from one-dimensional XRD profile fitting against the maximum interlayer distances possible for the corresponding water content. The results showed that interlayer porosity dominated total porosity, irrespective of water content, and that the interparticle porosity was lower than previously reported in the literature. At compactions relevant for the saturated bentonite barrier (1.4-1.8 g/cm(3)), the interparticle porosity was estimated to ≤3%.     

Barium as a potential indicator of phosphorus in agricultural runoff

In many catchments, anthropogenic input of contaminants, and in particular phosphorus (P), into surface water is a mixture of agricultural and sewage runoff. Knowledge about the relative contribution from each of these sources is vital for mitigation of major environmental problems such as eutrophication. In this study, we investigated whether the distribution of trace elements in surface waters can be used to trace the contamination source. Water from three groups of streams was investigated: streams influenced only by agricultural runoff, streams influenced mainly by sewage runoff, and reference streams. Samples were collected at different flow regimes and times of year and analyzed for 62 elements using ICP-MS. Our results show that there are significant differences between the anthropogenic sources affecting the streams in terms of total element composition and individual elements, indicating that the method has the potential to trace anthropogenic impact on surface waters. The elements that show significant differences between sources are strontium (p < 0.001), calcium (p < 0.004), potassium (p < 0.001), magnesium (p < 0.001), boron (p < 0.001), rhodium (p = 0.001), and barium (p < 0.001). According to this study, barium shows the greatest potential as a tracer for an individual source of anthropogenic input to surface waters. We observed a strong relationship between barium and total P in the investigated samples (R(2) = 0.78), which could potentially be used to apportion anthropogenic sources of P and thereby facilitate targeting of mitigation practices.     

A Dynamic Simulation Model of Land-Use, Population, and Rural Livelihoods in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

The dynamic interactions between society and land resources have to be taken into account when planning and managing natural resources. A computer model, using STELLA software, was developed through active participation of purposively selected farm households from different wealth groups, age groups and gender within a rural community and some members of Kebelle council. The aim of the modeling was to study the perceived changes in land-use, population and livelihoods over the next 30 years and to improve our understanding of the interactions among them. The modeling output is characterized by rapid population growth, declining farm size and household incomes, deteriorating woody vegetation cover and worsening land degradation if current conditions remain. However, through integrated intervention strategies (including forest increase, micro-finance, family planning, health and education) the woody vegetation cover is likely to increase in the landscape, population growth is likely to slow down and households’ income is likely to improve. A validation assessment of the simulation model based on historical data on land-use and population from 1973 to 2006 showed that the model is relatively robust. We conclude that as a supporting tool, the simulation model can contribute to the decision making process.     

Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management

Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2–4 °C warming and 50–80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical–biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.     

Atmospheric pathways of chlorinated pesticides and natural bromoanisoles in the northern Baltic Sea and its catchment

Long-range atmospheric transport is a major pathway for delivering persistent organic pollutants to the oceans. Atmospheric deposition and volatilization of chlorinated pesticides and algae-produced bromoanisoles (BAs) were estimated for Bothnian Bay, northern Baltic Sea, based on air and water concentrations measured in 2011–2012. Pesticide fluxes were estimated using monthly air and water temperatures and assuming 4 months ice cover when no exchange occurs. Fluxes were predicted to increase by about 50 % under a 2069–2099 prediction scenario of higher temperatures and no ice. Total atmospheric loadings to Bothnian Bay and its catchment were derived from air–sea gas exchange and “bulk” (precipitation + dry particle) deposition, resulting in net gains of 53 and 46 kg year^?1 for endosulfans and hexachlorocyclohexanes, respectively, and net loss of 10 kg year^?1 for chlordanes. Volatilization of BAs releases bromine to the atmosphere and may limit their residence time in Bothnian Bay. This initial study provides baseline information for future investigations of climate change on biogeochemical cycles in the northern Baltic Sea and its catchment.     

Using Vessel Monitoring System Data to Improve Systematic Conservation Planning of a Multiple-Use Marine Protected Area,the Kosterhavet National Park (Sweden)

When spatial fishing data is fed into systematic conservation planning processes the cost to a fishery could be ensured to be minimal in the zoning of marine protected areas. We used vessel monitoring system (VMS) data to map the distribution of prawn trawling and calculate fishing intensity for 1-ha grid cells, in the Kosterhavet National Park (Sweden). We then used the software Marxan to generate cost-efficient reserve networks that represented every biotope in the Park. We asked what were the potential gains and losses in terms of fishing effort and species conservation of different planning scenarios. Given a conservation target of 10 % representation of each biotope, the fishery need not lose more than 20 % of its fishing grounds to give way to cost-efficient conservation of benthic diversity. No additional reserved area was needed to achieve conservation targets while minimizing fishing costs. We discuss the benefits of using VMS data for conservation planning.     

Model selection and evaluation for risk assessment of dioxin-contaminated sites

The general European population has a total intake of dioxins and dioxin-like chemicals near the limit recommended by the European Union, making additional exposure above background levels undesirable. For populations living near dioxin-contaminated sites, additional exposure may occur by intake of locally produced food, inhalation of particles, dermal contact with soils, or other exposure pathways. Risk assessment tools are required to estimate risks associated with contaminated sites and to set priorities for site remediation. Here, we review several multimedia models that can be applied as tools to support risk assessment. We then present a strategy to select, apply, evaluate, and adapt a model to address a specific situation. The case study we consider is a risk assessment of generic background dioxin exposure in Sweden, and we compare the predictions with environmental observations and exposure data from Sweden. Arguments are presented for selecting the CalTOX model for this case study. We demonstrate the application, evaluation, and adaptation of the model and discuss the requirements for extending the analysis to conduct risk assessment for subpopulations living near dioxin-contaminated sites.