The role and functioning of environmental assessment: theoretical reflections upon an empirical investigation of causation

Environmental assessment is an intriguing policy phenomenon: it is employed in an ever-increasing range of contexts the world-over, yet research indicates it rarely efficiently or effectively achieves its principal purpose of promoting sustainable development. Increasingly, practical limitations in the effectiveness of environmental assessment are attributed to its theoretical shortcomings, particularly in relation to the conception of causation. This research advanced debate on environmental assessment by examining the theoretical implications of an empirical analysis of its causal operation in purposefully selected cases. The causal models derived from the research data illustrate the diversity of mechanisms through which environmental assessment can contribute to sustainability, and provide an insight into the complexity and contextuality of causation in the empirical realm. The research findings also highlight a multiplicity of societal expectations concerning environmental assessment's contribution to sustainable development. It is concluded that the interplay of non-rational variables (such as power, agency, experiences and expectations) necessitates the pursuit of a reflexive accommodation of purposes, methods and context in environmental assessment practices.     

First ceratosaurian dinosaur from Australia

The basal theropod dinosaur clade Ceratosauria, and its subclade Abelisauroidea, is characteristic of late Mesozoic terrestrial vertebrate faunas in western Gondwana (South America, Africa, Madagascar, and India) and Europe. Yet unambiguous records of ceratosaurs have hitherto been absent from Australia, where the theropod assemblage appears to include several typically Laurasian clades. Here, we report the first evidence of ceratosaurs (and potentially abelisauroids) from eastern Gondwana––a diagnostic astragalocalcaneum from the Aptian (121–125?Ma) of Victoria, Australia. Ceratosauria thus occurred in both western and eastern Gondwana during the Early Cretaceous. This fossil adds to the poorly known dinosaur fauna of Australia, a major clade of basal theropods, emphasising that its mid-Cretaceous theropod diversity was surprisingly cosmopolitan despite relative geographic isolation, including clades that have been thought to be typical of both Gondwana and Laurasia––Ceratosauria, Spinosauridae, Carcharodontosauria, Tyrannosauroidea, and Deinonychosauria. Such a contemporaneous association of theropod clades is unknown from other Gondwanan continents and questions the views that the late Mesozoic dinosaur fauna of Australia was dominated by Gondwanan or Laurasian elements, extreme isolation, relictualism, and/or novelty as a ‘centre of origin’. The cosmopolitan theropod fauna of Australia probably reflects the global distribution of these clades early in their history, prior to significant continental breakup.     

Exploring Environmental and Economic Trade-offs Associated with Aggregate Recycling from Decommissioned Forest Roads

Forest road decommissioning is a pro-active mechanism for preventing future habitat degradation and for increasing the likelihood of endangered salmonid survival in the western U.S. High implementation costs however preclude many desirable projects from being undertaken, especially on federally owned land. Previous research and real-world applications have demonstrated the cost savings potential of reusing aggregate recovered from forest roads during decommissioning. These cost savings can effectively subsidize decommissioning projects, suggesting an economic benefit associated with improving environmental benefit. We present a mixed integer, multiple objective formulation to identify the efficient trade-off surface between conflicting economic and environmental criteria, where environmental benefit is defined as the hazard weighted length of roads decommissioned. We compare nondominated frontiers identified with and without the opportunity to recycle aggregate. Our results suggest that aggregate recycling promotes a synergistic relationship between cost savings (subsidy) and environmental performance, where subsidies generally increase with increasing environmental performance. Effective subsidy values can reach 31% of total expenditure, at the maximum level of environmental benefit. Transportation managers are therefore able to recover and reuse a nonrenewable resource, while at the same time promoting economic and environmental efficiency.     

PFOS or PreFOS? Are perfluorooctane sulfonate precursors (PreFOS) important determinants of human and environmental perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) exposure?

The extent to which perfluorooctanesulfonate precursors (PreFOS) play a role in human or environmental exposure to perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS) is not well characterized. The diversity of manufactured PreFOS and its degradation products (e.g. C(8)F(17)SO(2)R and C(8)F(17)SO(2)NR'R', where R is H or F, and R' and R' are various) has made it difficult to track their fate. Temporal trends of PFOS in both humans and wildlife are discrepant, thus it is difficult to predict future exposure, and hypotheses about the role of PreFOS have been raised. Although abiotic degradation of commercially important PreFOS materials requires further research, current data suggest that the yield of PFOS is negligible or minor. On the other hand, in vivo biotransformation of PreFOS yields PFOS as the major metabolite, and >32% yields have been observed. In Canadians, exposure to PreFOS was equivalent or greater than direct PFOS exposure prior to 2002. In most ocean water, PFOS is dominant to PreFOS, but in the oceans east of Greenland there may be more PreFOS than PFOS, consistent with the fact that whales and humans in this region also show evidence of substantial PreFOS exposure. Quantitative assessments of PFOS body-burdens coming from PreFOS are complicated by the fact that PreFOS partitions to the cellular fraction of blood, thus biomonitoring in serum under predicts PreFOS relative to PFOS. Many unknowns exist that prevent accurate modelling, thus analytical methods that can distinguish directly manufactured PFOS, from PFOS that has been biotransformed from PreFOS, should be applied in future human and environmental monitoring. Two new source tracking principles are presented and applied to human serum.     

Passenger head kinematics in abrupt braking and lane change events

Abstract

Objective: A test track study was conducted to quantify patterns of adult front seat passenger head motion during abrupt vehicle maneuvers.

Method: Eighty-seven men and women with a wide range of body sizes and ages participated in data collection on a closed test track in a passenger sedan under manual control by a test driver. Because a primary goal of the study was to gather “unaware” data, the participants were instructed that the study was concerned with vehicle dynamics and they were required to read from a questionnaire taped to the top of their thighs as the drive began. The first event was a hard brake (approximately 1 g) to a stop from 35?mph (56 kph). Within the space of approximately 5?min the participants also experienced an aggressive lane change, a sharp right turn with simultaneous hard braking, and a second hard braking event. A Microsoft Kinect v2 sensor was positioned to view the area around the front passenger seat. Head location was tracked using the Kinect data with a novel methodology that fit 3D head scan data to the depth data acquired in the vehicle.

Result: The mean (standard deviation) forward excursion of the estimated head center of gravity (CG) location in the first braking event was 135 (62) mm. The forward head CG excursion in the second braking event of 115 (51) mm was significantly less than that in the first, but the difference was small relative to the within-condition variance. Head excursion on the second braking trial was less than that on the first trial for 69% of participants. The mean maximum inboard head excursion in lane-change maneuvers was 118 (40) mm. Forward head excursions in braking were significantly smaller for older passengers and those with higher body mass index, but the combined factors accounted for less than 25% of the variance. Inboard head excursion in the lane-change event was significantly related to stature, but only about 7% of variance was related to body size. Head excursions for men and women did not differ significantly after accounting for body size.

Discussion: This is the first quantitative occupant dynamics study to use a large, diverse sample of passengers, enabling the exploration of the effects of covariates such as age and body size.

Conclusions: The data demonstrate that a relatively large range of head positions can be expected to result from abrupt vehicle maneuvers. The data do not support simple scaling of excursions based on body size.     

Characterization of saccharides and other organic compounds in fine particles and the use of saccharides to track primary biologically derived carbon sources

A total of 134 aerosol samples (d_p < 2.5 μm) were collected at one rural site and one urban site in Texas from November 2005 to July 2006 to investigate the different sources that contribute to the ambient levels of different compounds. In particular, saccharide compounds were studied as potential tracers to track aerosols of biologically derived origin. The ambient concentration, seasonal variation, and urban/rural comparison of major saccharides and other organic compounds including normal alkanes, hopanes, and carboxylic acids were determined and analyzed relative to characterizing sources of PM2.5. Saccharides, together with other known molecular markers, were analyzed by a positive matrix factorization model and eight source factors were isolated that provide meaningful interpretation of aerosol sources. Three isolated factors were characterized by the dominance of different saccharide compounds and were attributed to wood smoke, sucrose rich bio-aerosols, and fungal spore derived bio-aerosols. It was estimated that wood smoke and primary biologically derived carbon sources contributed 22% and 14% to the measured ambient PM2.5 mass at San Augustine and 16% and 5% to the measured ambient PM2.5 mass at Dallas. The relative PM contribution from other resolved sources were also calculated.     

Assessing the impact of weather events at mid-latitudes on the atmospheric transport of chemical pollutants using a 2-dimensional multimedia meteorological model

We investigate the long-range transport potential (LRTP) of five different classes of hypothetical chemical pollutants (volatile, multimedia, semivolatile, particle-associated and hydrophilic) during a low pressure weather event using a novel 2 (x- and z-axis)-Dimensional Multi-Media Meteorological Model (2D4M). The atmosphere (z-axis) is described by three atmospheric layers, where two layers constitute the boundary layer and the third layer the free troposphere. The 2D4M can describe distinct weather events on a regional scale and calculate the LRTP of chemicals as a function of time during these events. Four weather factors are used to model weather events and their influence on the atmospheric transport of chemicals: (1) temperature, (2) wind speed and mixing dynamics of the troposphere, (3) hydroxyl radical concentrations and (4) precipitation. We have modeled the impact of variability in each of these factors on LRTP of pollutants during a front event associated with a low pressure period that interrupts a dominant high pressure system. The physico-chemical properties of the pollutant determine which specific weather factors contribute most to variability in transport potential during the event. Volatile and multimedia chemicals are mainly affected by changing atmospheric mixing conditions, wind speeds and OH radical concentrations, while semivolatile substances are also affected by temperature. Low-vapor-pressure pollutants that are particle-associated, and water-soluble pollutants are most strongly affected by precipitation. Some chemical pollutants are efficiently transported from the boundary layer into the upper troposphere during the modeled low pressure event and are transported by much higher wind speeds than in the boundary layer. Our model experiments show that the transport potential of volatile, multimedia and semivolatile compounds is significantly increased during a front event as a result of efficient tropospheric mixing and fast wind speeds in the upper troposphere, whereas low-volatility and hydrophilic chemicals are largely scavenged from the atmosphere. In future LRTP assessment of chemical contaminants as required by the Stockholm Convention and the convention on long-range transboundary air pollution, it is therefore advised to prioritize volatile, multimedia and semivolatile chemicals that are identified in initial screening.