Climate change risk management: a Mental Modeling application

The potential impacts of climate change are varied and highly uncertain, and pose a significant challenge to agencies charged with managing environmental risks. This paper presents a comprehensive and structured Mental Modeling approach to elicit, organize and present relevant information from experts and stakeholders about the factors influencing environmental risk management in the face of climate change. We present and review an initiative undertaken by the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to characterize climate change challenges to USACE environmental risk management activities, and to identify gaps with respect to science, engineering, and organizational processes for addressing these challenges. By employing Mental Modeling, the research has characterized the influences of climate change on USACE environmental risk management, and aggregating recommendations from 28 experts. In addition, the study identifies the most important opportunities to improve organizational response to climate change, ranging from focused research and development of technical capabilities to broad paradigm shifts and systemic organizational improvements within the USACE environmental risk management programs. This study demonstrates that Mental Modeling is a useful tool for understanding complex problems, identifying gaps, and formulating strategies, and can be used by a multitude of organizations and agencies.     

Soil Vapor Extraction and Chemical Oxidation to Remediate Chlorinated Solvents in Fractured Crystalline Bedrock: Pilot Study Results and Lessons Learned

A pilot study was completed at a fractured crystalline bedrock site using a combination of soil vapor extraction (SVE) and in‐situ chemical oxidation (ISCO) with Fenton's Reagent. This system was designed to destroy 1,1,1‐trichloroethane (TCA) and its daughter products, 1,1‐dichloroethene (DCE) and 1,1‐dichloroethane (DCA). Approximately 150 pounds of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were oxidized in‐situ or removed from the aquifer as vapor during the pilot study. Largely as a result of chemical oxidation, TCA concentrations in groundwater located within a local groundwater mound decreased by 69 to 95 percent. No significant rebound in VOC concentration was observed in these wells. Wells located outside of the groundwater mound showed less dramatic decreases in VOC concentration, and the data show that vapor stripping and short‐term groundwater migration following the oxidant injection were the key processes at these wells. Although the porosity of the aquifer at the site is on the order of 2 percent or less, the pilot study showed that SVE could be an effective remedial process in fractured crystalline rock. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

THE Clean Development Mechanism: Making it Operational

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is a facility for trading `certified emission reductions (CERs) between developing and developed countries, thus saving non-renewable carbon emissions by promoting renewable energy, energy efficiency and/or carbon sequestration projects in LDC's. The purpose of the CDM is to help these latter countries meet their obligations under the Kyoto Protocol while at the same time promoting “sustainable” development in the former countries, thereby reducing the build-up of greenhouse gases (GHG). This paper examines the progress in achieving a workable CDM in time for the first commitment period (2008–2012), and the kinds of initiatives that can be pursued in the agricultural, land-use and forestry sector in tropical countries. The critical element for the success of the CDM is the participation of a broad cross-section of buyers (ultimately from developed countries) and sellers (from developing countries) of CERs. Trading is the final step, which starts with project formulation, through successful implementation and then certification. This paper lays out a market-based framework for promoting CDM transactions between private sector project developers and traders and public sector policy makers, with regulators, governed by CDM rules, overseeing the smooth running of the CDM. However, as there are numerous players; it is proposed that trial CDM projects be demonstrated with the support of National/International bodies to iron out the problems and come up with practical solutions so that carbon trading can become a reality. Most rules for the CDM were clarified at the 7th Conference of Parties (CP) in October/November of 2001 in Marrakesh. An executive Board (EB) was appointed and this EB is in charge of proposing workable ground rules to promote the CDM. These have to be submitted for approval by the 8th CP in late 2002. Three broad kinds of projects qualify for the CDM, these are: renewable energy projects that will be alternatives to fossil fuel projects; sequestration projects that offset GHG emissions; and energy efficient projects that will decrease the emissions of GHG. It is possible to have a combination of these initiatives. A fourth type covering GHG reduction is omitted. As elaborated in the text, in order to qualify for the CDM, the proposed projects may have to have additional costs when compared to the alternative(s). Two time frames have been agreed for CDM projects to qualify for the first commitment period, namely 7 years (with an option of two 7-year renewals) and 10 years. Also, for land-use, land-use change and forestry projects only afforestation/reforestation initiatives are recognized as being permissible for the first commitment period. These rules seem rather shortsighted, as forestry and/or renewable energy projects usually require more than 21 years to be fully effective. Also, the major cause of deforestation is clearing land for agriculture, not harvesting wood. Therefore, improving agricultural productivity may be the best way to reduce deforestation and its subsequent release of GHGs. These conditionalities should be re-examined when rules for the second commitment period are decided. However, various agricultural and land-use projects are discussed under the existing guidelines which could qualify as CDM projects in the first period.     

Prenatal Diagnosis of congenital disorder of glycosylation type Ia (CDG-Ia) by cordocentesis and transferrin isoelectric focussing of serum of a 27-week fetus with non-immune hydrops

Blood was obtained by cordocentesis from a fetus with non-immune hydrops demonstrated by ultrasound scanning at 27 weeks' gestation. Abnormalities of serum transferrin isoelectric focussing (IEF) were identified, characteristic of a congenital disorder of glycosylation type I (CDG-Ia). A diagnosis of CDG-Ia was confirmed by enzyme analysis of cultured amniocytes. This is the first report of CDG-Ia diagnosed by serum analysis in a fetus. Previous reports have warned that diagnostic abnormalities do not appear in serum until several weeks after birth. The sensitivity of cordocentesis transferrin IEF is unknown but is less than 100% effective because cases have been diagnosed postnatally after normal prenatal or neonatal studies. Enzyme analysis or mutation analysis is required for diagnosis of congenital disorder of glycosylation (CDGs) regardless of whether a diagnostic transferrin pattern is identified prenatally. The analysis of a small sample of serum, from cordocentesis, performed to check for fetal anemia, simplified the investigation, diagnosis, and genetic counselling of a case of non-immune hydrops detected at 27 weeks' gestation. This might be a useful test for other cases in these circumstances, as fetal blood is usually collected to check for anemia. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investigating activated sludge flocs using microanalytical techniques: demonstration of environmental scanning electron microscopy and time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry for wastewater applications.

Environmental scanning electron microscopy (ESEM) with an energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometer (EDS) and time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) were demonstrated to be useful analytical tools for investigating surface and bulk components of individual floc particles from both full- and bench-scale activated sludge systems. Detailed surface imaging of various hydrated biological floc particles by ESEM revealed substantial differences in surface features between treatment systems, while EDS identified spatial differences in the iron and the aluminum distributions. The ToF-SIMS spectra had signature fragments of protein and polysaccharide material from the floc surface, suggesting that this technique is capable of surface profiling extracellular polymeric substances. Principal-component analysis of the positive ion ToF-SIMS spectra from the mixed-liquor-suspended solid (MLSS) samples and reference aquatic organic materials found slight differences between the full- and bench-scale MLSS surface properties but substantial differences among MLSS and treated effluent from the same facility.     

Polychlorinated biphenyls and omega-3 fatty acid exposure from fish consumption, and thyroid cancer among New York anglers

Fish from the Great Lakes contain polychlorinated biphenyls(PCBs)which have been shown to disrupt endocrine function and mimic thyroid hormones,but they also contain beneficial omega-3 fatty acids that may offer protection against endocrine cancers.The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of Lake Ontario fish consumption and the estimated consumption of PCBs and omega-3 fatty acids on the risk of thyroid cancer in a group of sport fishermen.Anglers from the New York State Angler Cohort Study were followed for cancer incidence from 1991–2008.Twenty-seven cases of incident thyroid cancer and 108 controls were included in the analyses.Total estimated fish consumption,estimated omega-3 fatty acid consumption,and estimated PCB consumption from Lake Ontario fish were examined for an association with the incidence of thyroid cancer,while matching on sex,and controlling for age and smoking status.Results from logistic regression indicate no significant associations between fish consumption,short-term estimated omega-3 fatty acids,or estimated PCB consumption from Great Lakes fish and the development of thyroid cancer,but it was suggested that long-term omega-3 fatty acid from Great Lakes fish may be protective of the development of thyroid cancer.In conclusion,fish consumption,with the possible concomitant PCBs,from the Great Lakes does not appear to increase the risk of thyroid cancer in New York anglers.Further research is needed in order to separate the individual health effects of PCBs from omega-3 fatty acids contained within the fish.     

Potential of capillary electrophoresis mass spectrometry for the characterization and monitoring of amine-derivatized naphthenic acids from oil sands process-affected water

Capillary electrophoresis coupled to mass spectrometry(CE–MS) was used for the analysis of naphthenic acid fraction compounds(NAFCs) of oil sands process-affected water(OSPW). A standard mixture of amine-derivatized naphthenic acids is injected directly onto the CE column and analyzed by CE–MS in less than 15 min. Time of flight MS analysis(TOFMS), optimized for high molecular weight ions, showed NAFCs between 250 and 800 m/z. With a quadrupole mass analyzer, only low-molecular weight NAFCs(between 100 and 450 m/z) are visible under our experimental conditions. Derivatization of NAFCs consisted of two-step amidation reactions mediated by 1-ethyl-3-(3-dimethylaminopropyl)carbodiimide(EDC), or mediated by a mixture of EDC and N-hydroxysuccinimide, in dimethyl sulfoxide, dichloromethane or ethyl acetate. The optimum background electrolyte composition was determined to be 30%(V/V) methanol in water and 2%(V/V) formic acid. NAFCs extracted from OSPW in the Athabasca oil sands region were used to demonstrate the feasibility of CE–MS for the analysis of NAFCs in environmental samples, showing that the labeled naphthenic acids are in the mass range of 350 to 1500 m/z.     

Consequential cognition: Exploring how attribution theory sheds new light on the firm‐level consequences of product recalls

It is unclear why some firms suffer greater negative consequences than others following a product recall. To shed light on this question, we extend attribution theory to the firm level to explore how consumers engage in an attributional process following product recalls that shapes their responses to firms. Integrating attribution theory and the demand side theoretical perspective, we assert that consumer judgments of responsibility toward manufacturers are shaped by causal data regarding the locus of causality (i.e., manufacturer or supplier) and controllability (i.e., prior knowledge or awareness) of a recalled product's potential for harm. We then examine the impact of product recall characteristics on judgments of responsibility and firm‐level outcomes using an experimental test involving responses from 320 subjects. Our findings suggest that judgments of responsibility are attributed to the manufacturing firm more when consumers are given causal information indicating that the firm is the source of, or is aware of, a product's defects. The results also indicate that judgments of responsibility can have costly firm‐level consequences in the form of reputational damage, diminished consumer purchase intentions, and increased legal damage recommendations. We discuss theoretical contributions, practical implications, and opportunities for further research.     

A parametric model of child body shape in seated postures

Objective: The shape of the current physical and computational surrogates of children used for restraint system assessments is based largely on standard anthropometric dimensions. These scalar dimensions provide valuable information on the overall size of the individual but do not provide good guidance on shape or posture. This study introduced the development of a parametric model that statistically predicts individual child body shapes in seated postures with a few given parameters.

Methods: Surface geometry data from a laser scanner of children ages 3 to 11 (n = 135) were standardized by a 2-level fitting method using intermediate templates. The standardized data were analyzed by principal component analysis (PCA) to efficiently describe the body shape variance. Parameters such as stature, body mass index, erect sitting height, and 2 posture variables related to torso recline and lumbar spine flexion were associated with the PCA model using regression.

Results: When the original scan data were compared with the predictions of the model using the given subject dimensions, the average root mean square error for the torso was 9.5 mm, and the 95th percentile error was 17.35 mm.

Conclusions: For the first time, a statistical model of child body shapes in seated postures is available. This parametric model allows the generation of an infinite number of virtual children spanning a wide range of body sizes and postures. The results have broad applicability in product design and safety analysis. Future work is needed to improve the representation of hands and feet and to extend the age range of the model. The model presented in this article is publicly available online through HumanShape.org.