Software for prioritizing conservation actions based on probabilistic information

Marxan is the most common decision-support tool used to inform the design of protected-area systems. The original version of Marxan does not consider risk and uncertainty associated with threatening processes affecting protected areas, including uncertainty about the location and condition of species’ populations and habitats now and in the future. We described and examined the functionality of a modified version of Marxan, Marxan with Probability. This software explicitly considers 4 types of uncertainty: probability that a feature exists in a particular place (estimated based on species distribution models or spatially explicit population models); probability that features in a site will be lost in the future due to a threatening process, such as climate change, natural catastrophes, and uncontrolled human interventions; probability that a feature will exist in the future due to natural successional processes, such as a fire or flood; and probability the feature exists but has been degraded by threatening processes, such as overfishing or pollution, and thus cannot contribute to conservation goals. We summarized the results of 5 studies that illustrate how each type of uncertainty can be used to inform protected area design. If there were uncertainty in species or habitat distribution, users could maximize the chance that these features were represented by including uncertainty using Marxan with Probability. Similarly, if threatening processes were considered, users minimized the chance that species or habitats were lost or degraded by using Marxan with Probability. Marxan with Probability opens up substantial new avenues for systematic conservation planning research and application by agencies.     

Ontogenetic differences in chemical alarm cue production determine antipredator responses and learned predator recognition

How individuals assess, respond and subsequently learn from alarm cues is crucial to their survival and future fitness. Yet this information is not constant through time; many individuals are exposed to different predators throughout their life as they outgrow some predators or move to habitats containing different predators. To maximise overall fitness, individuals should discriminate between different cues and respond and learn from only those that are relevant to their current ontogenetic stage. We tested whether juvenile spiny chromis, Acanthochromis polyacanthus, could distinguish between chemical alarm cues from conspecific donors of different ontogenetic stages and whether the cue ontogenetic stage of the cue donor affected the efficacy of learning about predators. Juveniles displayed a significant antipredator response when conditioned with juvenile chemical alarm cues paired with predator odour but failed to respond when conditioned with predator odour paired with either adult alarm cues or with saltwater. Subsequently, individuals only recognised the predator odour alone as a threat when conditioned with juvenile alarm cues. This demonstrates that prey may be highly specific in how they use information from conspecific alarm cues, selectively responding to and learning from only those cues that are relevant to their developmental stage.     

Allowable levels of take for the trade in Nearctic songbirds

The take of Nearctic songbirds for the caged-bird trade is an important cultural and economic activity in Mexico, but its sustainability has been questioned. We relied on the theta-logistic population model to explore options for setting allowable levels of take for 11 species of passerines that were subject to legal take in Mexico in 2010. Because estimates of population size necessary for making-periodic adjustments to levels of take are not routinely available, we examined the conditions under which a constant level of take might contribute to population depletion (i.e., a population below its level of maximum net productivity). The chance of depleting a population is highest when levels of take are based on population sizes that happen to be much lower or higher than the level of maximum net productivity, when environmental variation is relatively high and serially correlated, and when the interval between estimation of population size is relatively long (> or = 5 years). To estimate demographic rates of songbirds involved in the Mexican trade we relied on published information and allometric relationships to develop probability distributions for key rates, and then sampled from those distributions to characterize the uncertainty in potential levels of take. Estimates of the intrinsic rate of growth (r) were highly variable, but median estimates were consistent with those expected for relatively short-lived, highly fecund species. Allowing for the possibility of nonlinear density dependence generally resulted in allowable levels of take that were lower than would have been the case under an assumption of linearity. Levels of take authorized by the Mexican government in 2010 for the 11 species we examined were small in comparison to relatively conservative allowable levels of take (i.e., those intended to achieve 50% of maximum sustainable yield). However, the actual levels of take in Mexico are unknown and almost certainly exceed the authorized take. Also, the take of Nearctic songbirds in other Latin American and Caribbean countries ultimately must be considered in assessing population-level impacts.     

Mercury bioaccumulation in estuarine food webs

We tested for unintended mercury contamination problems associated with estuarine floodplain restoration projects of the Louisiana coastal zone, USA. Barataria Bay and Breton Sound are two neighboring deltaic estuaries that were isolated by levees from the Mississippi River about 100 years ago. These estuaries recently have been reconnected to the nutrient-rich Mississippi River, starting major river diversion (input) flows in 1991 for Breton Sound and in 2004 for Barataria Bay. We collected > 2100 fish over five years from 20 stations in these estuaries to test two hypotheses about Hg bioaccumulation: (H1) Background Hg bioaccumulation in fish would be highest in low-salinity upper reaches of estuaries, and (H2) recent river inputs to these upper estuarine areas would increase Hg bioaccumulation in fish food webs. For H1, we surveyed fish Hg concentrations at several stations along a salinity gradient in Barataria Bay in 2003-2004, a time when this estuary lacked strong river inputs. Results showed that average Hg concentrations in fish communities were lowest (150 ng/g dry mass) in higher salinity areas and -2.4x higher (350 ng/g) in low-salinity oligohaline and freshwater upper reaches of the estuary. For H2, we tested for enhanced Hg bioaccumulation following diversion onset in both estuaries. Fish communities from Breton Sound that had long-term (> 10 years) diversion inputs had -1.7x higher average Hg contents of 610 ng/g Hg vs. 350 ng/g background values. Shorter-term diversion inputs over 2-3 years in upper Barataria Bay did not result in strong Hg enrichments or stable C isotope increases seen in Breton Sound, even though N and S stable-isotope values indicated strong river inputs in both estuaries. It may be that epiphyte communities on abundant submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) are important hotspots for Hg cycling in these estuaries, and observed lesser development of these epiphyte communities in upper Barataria Bay during the first years of diversion inputs may account for the lessened Hg bioaccumulation in fish. A management consideration from this study is that river restoration projects may unintentionally fertilize SAV and epiphyte-based food webs, leading to higher Hg bioaccumulation in river-impacted floodplains and their food webs.     

Comparing model averaging with other model selection strategies for benchmark dose estimation

Model averaging (MA) has been proposed as a method of accommodating model uncertainty when estimating risk. Although the use of MA is inherently appealing, little is known about its performance using general modeling conditions. We investigate the use of MA for estimating excess risk using a Monte Carlo simulation. Dichotomous response data are simulated under various assumed underlying dose–response curves, and nine dose–response models (from the USEPA Benchmark dose model suite) are fit to obtain both model specific and MA risk estimates. The benchmark dose estimates (BMDs) from the MA method, as well as estimates from other commonly selected models, e.g., best fitting model or the model resulting in the smallest BMD, are compared to the true benchmark dose value to better understand both bias and coverage behavior in the estimation procedure. The MA method has a small bias when estimating the BMD that is similar to the bias of BMD estimates derived from the assumed model. Further, when a broader range of models are included in the family of models considered in the MA process, the lower bound estimate provided coverage close to the nominal level, which is superior to the other strategies considered. This approach provides an alternative method for risk managers to estimate risk while incorporating model uncertainty.

Are wolves saving Yellowstone's aspen? A landscape-level test of a behaviorally mediated trophic cascade

Behaviorally mediated trophic cascades (BMTCs) occur when the fear of predation among herbivores enhances plant productivity. Based primarily on systems involving small-bodied predators, BMTCs have been proposed as both strong and ubiquitous in natural ecosystems. Recently, however, synthetic work has suggested that the existence of BMTCs may be mediated by predator hunting mode, whereby passive (sit-and-wait) predators have much stronger effects than active (coursing) predators. One BMTC that has been proposed for a wide-ranging active predator system involves the reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone National Park, USA, which is thought to be leading to a recovery of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) by causing elk (Cervus elaphus) to avoid foraging in risky areas. Although this BMTC has been generally accepted and highly popularized, it has never been adequately tested. We assessed whether wolves influence aspen by obtaining detailed demographic data on aspen Stands using tree rings and by monitoring browsing levels in experimental elk exclosures arrayed across a gradient of predation risk for three years. Our study demonstrates that the historical failure of aspen to regenerate varied widely among stands (last recruitment year ranged from 1892 to 1956), and our data do not indicate an abrupt cessation of recruitment. This pattern of recruitment failure appears more consistent with a gradual increase in elk numbers rather than a rapid behavioral shift in elk foraging following wolf extirpation. In addition, our estimates of relative survivorship of young browsable aspen indicate that aspen are not currently recovering in Yellowstone, even in the presence of a large wolf population. Finally, in an experimental test of the BMTC hypothesis we found that the impacts of elk browsing on aspen demography are not diminished in sites where elk are at higher risk of predation by wolves. These findings suggest the need to further evaluate how trophic cascades are mediated by predator-prey life history and ecological context.     

A novel method for quantifying the glossiness of animals

The glossy sheen of healthy hair is an ideal of human beauty; however, glossiness has never been quantified in the context of non-human animal signaling. Glossiness, the specular reflectance characteristic of polished surfaces, has the potential to act as a signal of quality because it depends upon material integrity and cleanliness. Here, we undertook two studies of glossiness in avian plumage to determine (a) the repeatability of a recently developed measure of glossiness, (b) the relationship between glossiness and conventional measures of coloration, and (c) how glossiness is associated with quality signaling. Using museum specimens of three North American bird species with glossy plumage (red-winged blackbird, Agelaius phoeniceus; great-tailed grackle, Quiscalus mexicanus; Chihuahuan raven, Corvus cryptoleucus), we found that the glossiness measure was highly repeatable for all species and was significantly correlated with plumage coloration (e.g., chroma, brightness) in male great-tailed grackles. We then used wild-caught grackles to examine sexual dimorphism in plumage glossiness and its correlation to a potentially sexually selected trait in this species, male tail length. We found that males were significantly glossier than females and that male, but not female, glossiness correlated positively with tail length. This study provides a repeatable method to measure glossiness and highlights its potential as a signal of individual quality in animals.     

Lotka-Volterra competition models for sessile organisms

Markov models are widely used to describe the dynamics of communities of sessile organisms, because they are easily fitted to field data and provide a rich set of analytical tools. In typical ecological applications, at any point in time, each point in space is in one of a finite set of states (e.g., species, empty space). The models aim to describe the probabilities of transitions between states. In most Markov models for communities, these transition probabilities are assumed to be independent of state abundances. This assumption is often suspected to be false and is rarely justified explicitly. Here, we start with simple assumptions about the interactions among sessile organisms and derive a model in which transition probabilities depend on the abundance of destination states. This model is formulated in continuous time and is equivalent to a Lotka-Volterra competition model. We fit this model and a variety of alternatives in which transition probabilities do not depend on state abundances to a long-term coral reef data set. The Lotka-Volterra model describes the data much better than all models we consider other than a saturated model (a model with a separate parameter for each transition at each time interval, which by definition fits the data perfectly). Our approach provides a basis for further development of stochastic models of sessile communities, and many of the methods we use are relevant to other types of community. We discuss possible extensions to spatially explicit models.     

Quantifying the complexities of Saccharomyces cerevisiae's ecosystem engineering via fermentation

The theory of niche construction suggests that organisms may engineer environments via their activities. Despite the potential of this phenomenon being realized by Darwin, the capability of niche construction to generally unite ecological and evolutionary biology has never been empirically quantified. Here I quantify the fitness effects of Saccharomyces cerevisiae's ecosystem engineering in a natural ferment in order to understand the interaction between ecological and evolutionary processes. I show that S. cerevisiae eventually dominates in fruit niches, where it is naturally initially rare, by modifying the environment through fermentation (the Crabtree effect) in ways which extend beyond just considering ethanol production. These data show that an additional cause of S. cerevisiae's competitive advantage over the other yeasts in the community is due to the production of heat via fermentation. Even though fermentation is less energetically efficient than respiration, it seems that this trait has been selected for because its net effect provides roughly a 7% fitness advantage over the other members of the community. These data provide an elegant example of niche construction because this trait clearly modifies the environment and therefore the selection pressures to which S. cerevisiae, and other organisms that access the fruit resource, including humans, are exposed to.     

Role of plant enemies in the forestry of indigenous vs. nonindigenous pines

Plantations of rapidly growing trees are becoming increasingly common because the high productivity can enhance local economies, support improvements in educational systems, and generally improve the quality of life in rural communities. Landowners frequently choose to plant nonindigenous species; one rationalization has been that silvicultural productivity is enhanced when trees are separated from their native herbivores and pathogens. The expectation of enemy reduction in nonindigenous species has theoretical and empirical support from studies of the enemy release hypothesis (ERH) in the context of invasion ecology, but its relevance to forestry has not been evaluated. We evaluated ERH in the productive forests of Galicia, Spain, where there has been a profusion of pine plantations, some with the indigenous Pinus pinaster, but increasingly with the nonindigenous P. radiata. Here, one of the most important pests of pines is the indigenous bark beetle, Tomicus piniperda. In support of ERH, attacks by T. piniperda were more than twice as great in stands of P. pinaster compared to P. radiata. This differential held across a range of tree ages and beetle abundance. However, this extension of ERH to forestry failed in the broader sense because beetle attacks, although fewer on P. radiata, reduced productivity of P. radiata more than that of P. pinaster (probably because more photosynthetic tissue is lost per beetle attack in P. radiata). Productivity of the nonindigenous pine was further reduced by the pathogen, Sphaeropsis sapinea, which infected up to 28% of P. radiata but was absent in P. pinaster. This was consistent with the forestry axiom (antithetical to ERH) that trees planted "off-site" are more susceptible to pathogens. Fungal infections were positively correlated with beetle attacks; apparently T. piniperda facilitates S. sapinea infections by creating wounds and by carrying fungal propagules. A globally important component in the diminution of indigenous flora has been the deliberate large-scale propagation of nonnative trees for silviculture. At least for Pinus forestry in Spain, reduced losses to pests did not rationalize the planting of nonindigenous trees. There would be value in further exploration of relations between invasion ecology and the forestry of nonindigenous trees.