Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to treatments, and of spatiotemporal dynamics involving disturbance regimes and climate change. This work attempts to systematically align sources of uncertainty with the most appropriate decision support methodologies, in order to facilitate cost-effective, risk-based wildfire planning efforts. We review the state of wildfire risk assessment and management, with a specific focus on uncertainties challenging implementation of integrated risk assessments that consider a suite of human and ecological values. Recent advances in wildfire simulation and geospatial mapping of highly valued resources have enabled robust risk-based analyses to inform planning across a variety of scales, although improvements are needed in fire behavior and ignition occurrence models. A key remaining challenge is a better characterization of non-market resources at risk, both in terms of their response to fire and how society values those resources. Our findings echo earlier literature identifying wildfire effects analysis and value uncertainty as the primary challenges to integrated wildfire risk assessment and wildfire management. We stress the importance of identifying and characterizing uncertainties in order to better quantify and manage them. Leveraging the most appropriate decision support tools can facilitate wildfire risk assessment and ideally improve decision-making.     

College and university environmental programs as a policy problem (part 2): strategies for improvement

Environmental studies and environmental sciences programs in American and Canadian colleges and universities seek to ameliorate environmental problems through empirical enquiry and analytic judgment. In a companion article (Part 1) we describe the environmental program movement (EPM) and discuss factors that have hindered its performance. Here, we complete our analysis by proposing strategies for improvement. We recommend that environmental programs re-organize around three principles. First, adopt as an overriding goal the concept of human dignity??defined as freedom and social justice in healthy, sustainable environments. This clear higher-order goal captures the human and environmental aspirations of the EPM and would provide a more coherent direction for the efforts of diverse participants. Second, employ an explicit, genuinely interdisciplinary analytical framework that facilitates the use of multiple methods to investigate and address environmental and social problems in context. Third, develop educational programs and applied experiences that provide students with the technical knowledge, powers of observation, critical thinking skills and management acumen required for them to become effective professionals and leaders. Organizing around these three principles would build unity in the EPM while at the same time capitalizing on the strengths of the many disciplines and diverse local conditions involved.     

Herbivores, tidal elevation, and species richness simultaneously mediate nitrate uptake by seaweed assemblages

In order for research into the consequences of biodiversity changes to be more applicable to real-world ecosystems, experiments must be conducted in the field, where a variety of factors other than diversity can affect the rates of key biogeochemical and physiological processes. Here, we experimentally evaluate the effects of two factors known to affect the diversity and composition of intertidal seaweed assemblages--tidal elevation and herbivory--on nitrate uptake by those assemblages. Based on surveys of community composition at the end of a 1.5-year press experiment, we found that both tide height and herbivores affected seaweed community structure. Not surprisingly, seaweed species richness was greater at lower tidal elevations. Herbivores did not affect richness, but they altered the types of species that were present; seaweed species characterized by higher rates of nitrate uptake were more abundant in herbivore-removal plots. Both tide height and herbivores affected nitrate uptake by seaweed assemblages. Individual seaweed species, as well as entire seaweed assemblages, living higher on the shore had greater rates of biomass-specific nitrate uptake, particularly at high ambient nitrate concentrations. Grazed seaweed assemblages exhibited reduced nitrate uptake, but only at low nitrate concentrations. We evaluated the effect of seaweed richness on nitrate uptake, both alone and after accounting for effects of tidal elevation and herbivores. When only richness was considered, we found no effect on uptake. However, when simultaneous effects of richness, tide height, and herbivores on uptake were evaluated, we found that all three had relatively large and comparable effects on nitrate uptake coefficients and that there was a negative relationship between seaweed richness and nitrate uptake. Particularly because effects of richness on uptake were not apparent unless the effects of tide height and herbivory were also considered, these results highlight the importance of considering the effects of environmental context when evaluating the consequences of biodiversity change in more realistic systems.     

Swimming performance trade-offs across a gradient in community composition in Trinidadian killifish (Rivulus hartii)

The impacts of predation and competition on life history, behavioral, and morphological traits are well established for many organisms, but effects on locomotor performance have received relatively little attention. We examined variation in sprint speed and critical swimming speed (U(crit), a measure of stamina) in the Trinidadian killifish (Rivulus hartii) across a gradient of ecological communities. R. hartii are located in (1) "high-predation" sites with large, piscine piscivores, (2) "Rivulus-guppy" sites with guppies, and (3) "Rivulus-only" sites with only R. hartii. R. hartii suffer higher mortality in high-predation sites. In Rivulus-guppy sites, population densities are reduced and growth rates increased compared with Rivulus-only sites, which likely represent indirect effects of guppy predation on young R. hartii. We show a significant negative relationship, suggesting a trade-off, between sprint speed and endurance; Rivulus from high-predation sites were faster sprinters but had reduced critical swimming speeds. This trade-off was also apparent in correlations of the nine population means. At the individual level, the correlation was weaker and only significantly negative when all nine populations (three from each site) were pooled and values were not corrected for body size. Sex had a significant effect on U(crit), with females having a lower U(crit), but sexes did not differ in sprint speed. Fish from high-predation sites also exhibited increased tail lengths and fineness ratios compared to sites without large predators. The two low-predation sites showed no statistical differences in locomotor performance or morphology.     

Genetic structure of the southeastern United States loggerhead turtle nesting aggregation: evidence of additional structure within the peninsular Florida recovery unit

The southeastern United States supports one of two large loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting aggregations worldwide and is therefore critical to global conservation and recovery efforts for the species. Previous studies have established the presence of four demographically distinct nesting populations (management units) corresponding to beaches from (1) North Carolina through northeastern Florida, (2) peninsular Florida, (3) the Dry Tortugas, and (4) northwest Florida. Temporal and geographic genetic structure of the nesting aggregation was examined utilizing partial mitochondrial control region haplotype frequencies from 834 samples collected over the 2002 through 2008 nesting seasons from 19 beaches as well as previously published haplotype data. Most rookeries did not exhibit interannual genetic variation. However, the interannual variation detected did significantly impact the interpretation of spatial genetic structure in northeastern Florida. Based on pairwise F _ST comparisons, exact tests of population differentiation, and analysis of molecular variance, the present study upholds the distinctiveness of the four currently recognized management units and further supports recognition of discrete central eastern, southern (southeastern and southwestern), and central western Florida management units. Further subdivision may be warranted, but more intensive genetic sampling is required. In addition, tools such as telemetry and mark-recapture are needed to complement genetic data and overcome limitations of genetic markers in resolving loggerhead turtle rookery connectivity in the southeastern USA.     

An independent review and prioritization of past radionuclide and chemical releases from the Los Alamos National Laboratory--implications for future dose reconstruction studies

From 1999 through 2010, a team of scientists and engineers systematically reviewed approximately eight million classified and unclassified documents at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) that describe historical off-site releases of radionuclides and chemicals in order to determine the extent to which a full-scale dose reconstruction for releases is warranted and/or feasible. As a part of this effort, a relative ranking of historical airborne and waterborne radionuclide releases from LANL was established using priority index (PI) values that were calculated from estimated annual quantities released and the maximum allowable effluent concentrations according to The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). Chemical releases were ranked based on annual usage estimates and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) toxicity values. PI results for airborne radionuclides indicate that early plutonium operations were of most concern between 1948 and 1961, in 1967, and again from 1970 through 1973. Airborne releases of uranium were found to be of most interest for 1968, from 1974 through 1978, and again in 1996. Mixed fission products yielded the highest PI value for 1969. Mixed activation product releases yielded the highest PI values from 1979 to 1995. For waterborne releases, results indicate that plutonium is of most concern for all years evaluated with the exception of 1956 when (90)Sr yielded the highest PI value. The prioritization of chemical releases indicate that four of the top five ranked chemicals were organic solvents that were commonly used in chemical processing and for cleaning. Trichloroethylene ranked highest, indicating highest relative potential for health effects, for both cancer and non-cancer effects. Documents also indicate that beryllium was used in significant quantities, which could have lead to residential exposures exceeding established environmental and occupational exposure limits, and warrants further consideration. In part because of the close proximity of residents to LANL, further study of historical LANL releases and the potential impact to public health is recommended for those materials with the largest priority index values; namely, plutonium, uranium, and selected chemicals.     

Ecosystem development in roadside grasslands: biotic control, plant-soil interactions, and dispersal limitations

Roadside grasslands undergoing secondary succession are abundant, and represent ecologically meaningful examples of novel, human-created ecosystems. Interactions between plant and soil communities (hereafter plant-soil interactions) are of major importance in understanding the role of biotic control in ecosystem functioning, but little is known about these links in the context of ecosystem restoration and succession. The assessment of the key biotic communities and interactions driving ecosystem development will help practitioners to better allocate the limited resources devoted to roadside grassland restoration. We surveyed roadside grasslands from three successional stages (0-2, 7-9, and >20 years) in two Mediterranean regions of Spain. Structural equation modeling was used to evaluate how interactions between plants, biological soil crusts (BSCs), and soil microbial functional diversity (soil microorganisms) affect indicators of ecosystem development and restoration: plant similarity to the reference ecosystem, erosion control, and soil C storage and N accumulation. Changes in plant community composition along the successional gradient exerted the strongest influence on these indicators. High BSC cover was associated with high soil stability, and high soil microbial functional diversity from late-successional stages was associated with high soil fertility. Contrary to our expectations, the indirect effects of plants, mediated by either BSCs or soil microorganisms, were very weak in both regions, suggesting a minor role for plant-soil interactions upon ecosystem development indicators over long periods. Our results suggest that natural vegetation dynamics effectively improved ecosystem development within a time frame of 20 years in the grasslands evaluated. They also indicate that this time could be shortened if management actions focus on: (1) maintaining well-conserved natural areas close to roadsides to enhance plant compositional changes towards late-successional stages, (2) increasing BSC cover in areas under strong erosion risk, to avoid soil loss, and (3) enhancing soil microbial functional diversity in resource-limited areas, to enhance soil C and N accumulation.     

Identifying Reference Conditions and Quantifying Biological Variability Within Benthic Macroinvertebrate Communities in Perennial and Non-perennial Northern California Streams

Identification of minimally disturbed reference sites is a critical step in developing precise and informative ecological indicators. We tested procedures to select reference sites, and quantified natural variation (inter-site and -annual variability) among reference conditions using a macroinvertebrate data set collected from 429 mediterranean-climate stream reaches in the San Francisco Bay Area, California (USA). We determined that a landscape GIS-based stressor screen followed by a local field-based stressor screen effectively identified least-disturbed reference sites that, based on NMS ordination results, supported different biological communities than sites identified with only landscape (GIS) or local (field) stressors. An examination of least-disturbed reference sites indicated that inter-site variability was strongly associated with stream hydrology (i.e., perennial vs. non-perennial flow) and annual precipitation, which highlights the need to control for such variation when developing biological indicators through natural gradient modeling or using unique biological indicators for both non-perennial and perennial streams. Metrics were more variable among non-perennial streams, indicating that additional modeling may be needed to develop precise biological indicators for non-perennial streams. Among 192 sites sampled two to six times over the 8-year study period, the biological community showed moderate inter-annual variability, with the 100 point index of biotic integrity scores varying from 0 to 51 points (mean = 11.5). Variance components analysis indicated that inter-annual variability explained only a fraction (5–18 %) of the total variation when compared against site-level variation; thus efforts to understand causes of natural variation between sites will produce more precise and accurate biological indicators.     

Managing Forests for Increased Regional Water Yield in the Southeastern U.S. Coastal Plain

With growing populations fueling increased groundwater abstraction and forecasts of greater water scarcity in the southeastern United States, identifying land management strategies that enhance water availability will be vital to maintaining hydrologic resources and protecting natural systems. Management of forested uplands for lower basal area, currently a priority for habitat improvement on public lands, may also increase water yield through decreased evapotranspiration (ET). To explore this hypothesis, we synthesized studies of precipitation and ET in coastal plain pine stands to develop a statistical model of water yield as a function of management strategy, stand structure, and ecosystem water use. This model allowed us to estimate changes in water yield in response to varying management strategies across spatial scales from the individual stand to a regional watershed. Results suggest that slash pine stands managed at lower basal areas can have up to 64% more cumulative water yield over a 25‐year rotation compared to systems managed for high‐density timber production, with the greatest increases in stands also managed for recurrent understory fire. Although there are important uncertainties in the magnitude of additional water yield and its final destination (i.e., surface water bodies vs. groundwater), this analysis highlights the potential for management activities on public and private timber lands to partially offset increasing demand on surface and groundwater resources.     

Effects of risks of sperm competition on the numbers of eupyrene and apyrene sperm ejaculated by the moth Plodia interpunctella (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae)

This study examines the effects of different risks of sperm competition upon ejaculate characteristics in the moth Plodia interpunctella. In this short-lived species, females will remate and thus generate sperm competition, while males have a limited sperm supply. We therefore predict males to have evolved prudence in ejaculate allocation and investigate the effects of (1) rival male presence, (2) female mating history and (3) female age, upon the ejaculation of eupyrene (fertilizing) and apyrene (non-fertile) sperm numbers. We found no effect of the presence of rival males upon ejaculate characteristics, and conclude, due to the mating system of P. interpunctella, that rival males do not represent a proximate risk of sperm competition. We controlled female mating history by allowing females to receive different and predictable numbers of sperm which they then store for at least 7 days. In subsequent matings (7 days later) we found that new males ejaculated significantly more eupyrene sperm to females that had previously received larger numbers of sperm. We conclude that males increase numbers of eupyrene sperm to maintain success in sperm competition with rival sperm already in storage in the female. We found no effect of female mating history upon the ejaculation of apyrene sperm. Female age, however, had a significant negative effect upon both sperm types. We discuss these results in relation to sperm competition theory and apyrene sperm function.